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Post by acidohm on Mar 9, 2016 9:50:28 GMT
There is no doubt! !! The idea of a met office expert  there are well known people who have made good money betting against their predictions. ..I mean forecasts. .. |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 9, 2016 15:11:53 GMT
There is no doubt! !! The idea of a met office expert there are well known people who have made good money betting against their predictions. ..I mean forecasts. .. That would be a Met Bookie? Who would have known! |
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 9, 2016 17:24:53 GMT
Well, here we go, as many of you know, pick and choose. Comments? From www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/31/weather-forecast-next-five-years-even-hotter... "According to the Met Office’s forecast for the next five years, 2016 is likely to be the warmest since records began. Then in 2017 there will be a dip as the effects of El Niño dissipate and there is some planet-wide cooling. But after that, and for the remaining three years of the decade, the world will continue to experience even more warming. The forecast, which will be released this week, is the first such report that the Met Office has issued since it overhauled its near-term climate prediction system last year. “We cannot say exactly how warm it will get but there is no doubt the overall upward trend of temperatures will continue,” said Doug Smith, a Met Office expert on long-term forecasting. “We cannot say exactly how hot 2018, 2019 or 2020 will be. That will depend on other variables. But the general trend is going to be upwards.”" ... I say probably while other members would disagree. Some here have expressed a belief we are going to get cold, really cold. I don't see it happening I see a 1.0 to 1.3C drop in the next 20 years. That isn't really cold, but will upset world ag production a bit. |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 9, 2016 17:27:43 GMT
I say probably while other members would disagree. Some here have expressed a belief we are going to get cold, really cold. I don't see it happening I see a 1.0 to 1.3C drop in the next 20 years. That isn't really cold, but will upset world ag production a bit. That should also be enough to call into question the reliability of CO2 as a predictive variable. Or not! |
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Post by sigurdur on Mar 9, 2016 17:35:56 GMT
I see a 1.0 to 1.3C drop in the next 20 years. That isn't really cold, but will upset world ag production a bit. That should also be enough to call into question the reliability of CO2 as a predictive variable. Or not! I have studied this CO2 for decades. I know the pure physics of CO2 and what it is SUPPOSE to do. And, in the models, everything else is kept static to allow CO2 to work. BUT, in reality, nothing is static. There are too many problems exhibited via the models verses reality, to say with a high degree of certainty today WHAT CO2 will really do climate wise. What is KNOWN is that additional CO2 helps plants achieve a higher degree of efficiency. Hence, more output. Is it itself the temperature controller of the earth's climate? Current evidence does not indicate that CO2 IS the controller of climate. It "may" sway it in directions. Question from an agronomic thought. Is the reason that the Absolute Humidity of the atmosphere is falling rather than rising indicative of the fact that plants perspire at a lower rate when CO2 levels are higher? I don't know, but it HAS to have some type of effect. |
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 9, 2016 22:03:33 GMT
That should also be enough to call into question the reliability of CO2 as a predictive variable. Or not! I have studied this CO2 for decades. I know the pure physics of CO2 and what it is SUPPOSE to do. And, in the models, everything else is kept static to allow CO2 to work. BUT, in reality, nothing is static. There are too many problems exhibited via the models verses reality, to say with a high degree of certainty today WHAT CO2 will really do climate wise. What is KNOWN is that additional CO2 helps plants achieve a higher degree of efficiency. Hence, more output. Is it itself the temperature controller of the earth's climate? Current evidence does not indicate that CO2 IS the controller of climate. It "may" sway it in directions. Question from an agronomic thought. Is the reason that the Absolute Humidity of the atmosphere is falling rather than rising indicative of the fact that plants perspire at a lower rate when CO2 levels are higher? I don't know, but it HAS to have some type of effect. It would be interesting to see how much water vapor could be reduced by reductions in plant transpiration. They certainly outnumber us by many orders of magnitude. Theoretically, near surface reductions could serve to lower night time temperatures. If Rod Serling were still alive, I could see a Twilight Zone story line here. |
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Post by acidohm on Dec 17, 2017 21:47:28 GMT
Anyone seen November temp data?? I last saw October's, hadcrut 4 I think which was showing a drop.
I've been to tied up in my professional life and have not paid attention to the usual outlets, can't seem to find it tho.....
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 17, 2017 22:20:17 GMT
Anyone seen November temp data?? I last saw October's, hadcrut 4 I think which was showing a drop. I've been to tied up in my professional life and have not paid attention to the usual outlets, can't seem to find it tho..... Possibly means it doesn't fit 'the narrative' and time has to be spent coming up with excuses reasons for adjustments. |
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Post by acidohm on Dec 17, 2017 22:51:55 GMT
Anyone seen November temp data?? I last saw October's, hadcrut 4 I think which was showing a drop. I've been to tied up in my professional life and have not paid attention to the usual outlets, can't seem to find it tho..... Possibly means it doesn't fit 'the narrative' and time has to be spent coming up with excuses reasons for adjustments. Well, we've been below average for 4 of the last 5 months (I include December as it would take a mega heatwave to drag this outta negatives) |
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Post by Ratty on Dec 18, 2017 1:13:56 GMT
Anyone seen November temp data?? I last saw October's, hadcrut 4 I think which was showing a drop. I've been to tied up in my professional life and have not paid attention to the usual outlets, can't seem to find it tho..... How many S-bend Teddy Bears this Christmas, Acid?  |
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 18, 2017 3:05:44 GMT
Possibly means it doesn't fit 'the narrative' and time has to be spent coming up with excuses reasons for adjustments. Well, we've been below average for 4 of the last 5 months (I include December as it would take a mega heatwave to drag this outta negatives) Well ... the satellite lower troposphere temperature deviation fell from 0.63 in October to 0.36 in November. I have a hard time believing that ocean surface temperatures would be up. But certain climate scientists may .... So far our winter has been reasonably close to normal ... and that 38N Dec. normal has translated south. I have a bad feeling about being crushed in January ... like a squirrel at a Nascar rally. |
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Post by neilhamp on Dec 18, 2017 3:35:14 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 18, 2017 3:43:45 GMT
Well, we've been below average for 4 of the last 5 months (I include December as it would take a mega heatwave to drag this outta negatives) Well ... the satellite lower troposphere temperature deviation fell from 0.63 in October to 0.36 in November. I have a hard time believing that ocean surface temperatures would be up. But certain climate scientists may .... So far our winter has been reasonably close to normal ... and that 38N Dec. normal has translated south. I have a bad feeling about being crushed in January ... like a squirrel at a Nascar rally. Wait for it.... wait for it. The Iceman is on his way. |
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Post by acidohm on Dec 18, 2017 9:50:44 GMT
Anyone seen November temp data?? I last saw October's, hadcrut 4 I think which was showing a drop. I've been to tied up in my professional life and have not paid attention to the usual outlets, can't seem to find it tho..... How many S-bend Teddy Bears this Christmas, Acid? Not so much the maintainance thus far Ratty, it's builders trying to complete houses for end of year figures.... ....the teddy bears will be pulled out in Jan after customers move in! |
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 25, 2017 2:08:52 GMT
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there are well known people who have made good money betting against their predictions. ..I mean forecasts. ..
