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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2015 1:43:06 GMT
I also think one has to take Astromet's forecast as presented, a broad brush. Even during periods of drought, there are areas that will get sufficient rain.
UNLESS that drought is similar to a 1955 or 1930's type of drought. Then it is a full blown drought on a large geological area.
We are way, and I mean WAY, behind due for those types of droughts. Would make 2012 look like child's play.
And in those years, the bins don't bust even tho seeded in the dust.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2015 2:38:43 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2015 3:21:38 GMT
Case8930, My forecast for deflation does not affect the climate, nor the other way around. The PLC option works better when food commodity prices are falling. There is a glut already and the warmer solar year of 2015 will not change that, but actually will add increased yields to the building glut. Guess I'm still not following. I agree PLC works better when commodity prices are falling. Prices are falling due to the fact that the corn belt (mainly NE, MN, IA, IL, OH and IN)had cooler than normal temps along with normal to above normal rainfall this past growing season and raised record corn and beans yields. You told me in your Climate forecast 2014-2015 that and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." Due to the terrible drought of 2012 crop prices that year were the highest they had ever been in history. If you're saying 2015 will be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest than I would assume crop prices will be higher than they were in 2012. Normally warmer than normal temps during the growing season hurt yields rather than help. Well Case, no then, you are not following. For one, warmer-than-normal temps does not hurt all crop yields, for one. And deflation has little to nothing to do with the climate, and as 2015 is just getting started, you will see how warm it will get. But your assumption that crop prices will be higher is wrong. You need to first get a grip on what deflation means - and that's depressed prices, also a glut, as well as currency wars among nations. With the U.S. Dollar high, that means commodities will be forced lower and that is exactly what is happening. The crop prices say, since 2011, have been higher, and now food commodity prices will fall. These are economic - not climate - forces. You are confusing the two. Deflation creates a loss of pricing power, a downward trend in prices, an erosion of profits and excess capacity. Now, the Dollar and commodities have a converse, or negative correlation. When the Dollar goes up, commodities go down, and vice versa. Commodities are down dramatically since 2011, when they peaked and now they continue to fall, and that is very deflationary.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2015 3:31:52 GMT
I think everyone needs to take Astro's forecast with a grain of salt and remember where you're reading this, it's an online open forum, the equivalent of a call in radio talk show. Hi doc I've got a pain in my back...what do you you think? Do I think Astro is capable of providing the detail some of you want? Yes, I do but I also realize it would cost money for a professional analysis. That medical doctor is going to provide a much clear and accurate diagnosis of your back pain if you pay him for his time and expertise. If you're expecting his forecast to be spot dead on for your region then you need to stop and realize what you're asking for and what he's providing in this forum are two different horses. It sounds like some of you are asking for a professional medical diagnosis based on some brief chit chat. It won't happen. Astro does offer professional forecasting, as he has said, but don't' expect it for free. What he's provided here is awesome, thanks Astro, and I bet if he did a fee based report it would be more awesome, it would be awesomenesser. Is that a word? I don't think so. I guess his forecast is no better than the NOAA forecast they put out then. Why even put out a forecast if you're just going to talk in circles? Don't come on a internet forum and say 2015 will be worse than 2012 across the Midwest (which I quoted above and 2012 had catastrophic yield losses in the Midwest and which commodity prices skyrocketed) and then in another post say that 2015 will be hot but have good yields in the midwest. Basically he has covered his bases both ways. I understand he has a fee based report but don't come on and give a free forecast that has generalizations that could apply to anywhere in the US...that's pointless. I'll put out a forecast; it will be hot, there will be some rain, there will be some storms, there will be cool spells and some hot spells; some places will have droughts and others not. I bet I'll be right come fall. I think I can speak for myself Case. You're confusing 'climate' with 'weather (among other things) and seem to be clueless about the economic forces that impact farming. Also, NOAA does not do seasonal forecasts. They may try, but they do not. Moreover, for years I have provided what amounts to 'free' seasonal and long-range climate forecasts in the terms of weather conditions and climatic conditions. Moreover, it is not 'pointless' to forecast long-range climate conditions. I have done it for a long time and there's nothing 'pointless' about it that I can see. As for the rest of your comments, don't put words into my mouth. I never say, and I quote you here: "I'll put out a forecast; it will be hot, there will be some rain, there will be some storms, there will be cool spells and some hot spells; some places will have droughts and others not. I bet I'll be right come fall." Huh? Those are complete rationalizations and generalizations of yours that do not apply to me. I have identified specific regions in my many of my forecasts. Now, I don't know how old you are, but those kinds of comments are childish. Don't go there, this board is for grownups. If you are going to comment, mixing all kinds of apples and oranges as you do, then at least be cogent about what you are saying, and don't tell me that I am talking in circles. I never do that. Actually, the problem here is your 'own' understanding which needs to be addressed - not mine.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 10, 2015 4:50:45 GMT
I think everyone needs to take Astro's forecast with a grain of salt and remember where you're reading this, it's an online open forum, the equivalent of a call in radio talk show. Hi doc I've got a pain in my back...what do you you think? Do I think Astro is capable of providing the detail some of you want? Yes, I do but I also realize it would cost money for a professional analysis. That medical doctor is going to provide a much clear and accurate diagnosis of your back pain if you pay him for his time and expertise. If you're expecting his forecast to be spot dead on for your region then you need to stop and realize what you're asking for and what he's providing in this forum are two different horses. It sounds like some of you are asking for a professional medical diagnosis based on some brief chit chat. It won't happen. Astro does offer professional forecasting, as he has said, but don't' expect it for free. What he's provided here is awesome, thanks Astro, and I bet if he did a fee based report it would be more awesome, it would be awesomenesser. Is that a word? I don't think so. I guess his forecast is no better than the NOAA forecast they put out then. Why even put out a forecast if you're just going to talk in circles? Don't come on a internet forum and say 2015 will be worse than 2012 across the Midwest (which I quoted above and 2012 had catastrophic yield losses in the Midwest and which commodity prices skyrocketed) and then in another post say that 2015 will be hot but have good yields in the midwest. Basically he has covered his bases both ways. I understand he has a fee based report but don't come on and give a free forecast that has generalizations that could apply to anywhere in the US...that's pointless. I'll put out a forecast; it will be hot, there will be some rain, there will be some storms, there will be cool spells and some hot spells; some places will have droughts and others not. I bet I'll be right come fall. Maybe I am missing something. But it does not seem surprising that the 2015-2016 forecast is different than the 2014-2015 forecast. I would not call that in any way shape or form "basically he has covered his bases both ways". Forecasts change as you move closer to the forecast period. Then at best I would think you can only expect only as much as an 80% success rate, which is about what the Farmer's Almanacs CLAIM as an accuracy. Human nature is to over claim your success rate when its a bit less than the competition to at least equal the competition. The leader in success rate is usually motivated for credibility reasons to accurately state their success rate. They know that they are best and they know others will claim whatever they claim so it becomes another opportunity show why they are the best. Personally over a large number of predictions 2 years out for an annual forecast I would be pretty impressed with a forecast that averaged 60% correct and I would be much less impressed with a 60% success rate for forecasts that are given at the beginning of the forecast year. I think the Almanac claimed 80% success rates are for the imminent year. I don't know if they do longer forecasts or not. However, there are physical clues, water warmth, ice conditions, current patterns, wind patterns that give clues in addition to extraplanetary (astro) meteorology. I lean towards the belief that essentially all phenomena are extraplanetary driven but that only some of what is driven this year by extraplanetary phenomena will affect next year and will have a lesser effect further out. I believe much depends upon internal mechanics how the extraplanetary drivers are going to be manifested, like build ups of large ocean temperature waves, the turnover rate of deep thermohaline currents, and ice fluctuation patterns, etc. Big El Ninos have a history of striking during cool PDO conditions. Cool PDO conditions mean no more than somewhat of a dominance of La Nina. I can see logic in Astromet's claim of no ENSO events until the end of the decade. But I am not convinced that the factors that comprise Astromet's predictions have any real mathematical link to how NOAA measures an El Nino. Its a bit apples and oranges the apples and oranges both are going to be destroyed in a hard freeze, but how they react around the near margins of freezing is going to be different.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 12:58:25 GMT
Astro,
Maybe there was a misunderstanding somewhere along the lines. The main point I'm interested in is this: On Nov. 1st in this forum you told me and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." In 2012, corn yields were 123.4 bu/ac which caused commodity prices to skyrocket to record highs. This past year saw a record yield of 173.4 bu/ac and saw commodity prices plummet.
So if 2015 is going to be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest it would stand to reason that yields would be lower than 2012 and even with deflation prices would still have to go up otherwise there would be food shortages worldwide. That is really all I am questioning. I'm not questioning your 2-10 year forecast or anything else. Just questioning what you told me 3 months ago to what you are forecasting today when you said 2015 will be a stable climate in the Midwest. If you have changed your forecast for the Midwest in the past 3 months...fine...then there was just a misunderstanding on both our parts.
I'm a farmer and 2012 nearly destroyed many of my friends across the Midwest due to the horrific heat and drought. I'm sorry if I I came on strong before but when you told me 3 months ago that 2015 will be worse than 2012; I'm sure that has many farmers across the Midwest very concerned for feeding their families. I mean no ill will; just want a clarification from what you told me 3 months ago to what you are saying today. Thank you and God bless.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2015 14:09:38 GMT
Probably the most important chart to learn/watch, in regards to commodity prices it the dollar chart. When the dollar is high, which it presently is and will potentially stay, commodity prices remain low.
The world presently has plenty of corn/wheat and soybeans. Would a weather disruption in the USA have world wide implications? Yes.
The market reaction tho, could be somewhat muted if the world economy is still in a muted growth zone.
As Astromet mentioned, potential deflation is a very real threat. Not only would this devalue present assets, it also has the effect of increasing the level of debt held by countries, as they have to pay debt with deflated currency.
Lack of flexibility in the 2014 farm bill is one of its larger flaws.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 18:35:09 GMT
Probably the most important chart to learn/watch, in regards to commodity prices it the dollar chart. When the dollar is high, which it presently is and will potentially stay, commodity prices remain low. The world presently has plenty of corn/wheat and soybeans. Would a weather disruption in the USA have world wide implications? Yes. The market reaction tho, could be somewhat muted if the world economy is still in a muted growth zone. As Astromet mentioned, potential deflation is a very real threat. Not only would this devalue present assets, it also has the effect of increasing the level of debt held by countries, as they have to pay debt with deflated currency. Lack of flexibility in the 2014 farm bill is one of its larger flaws. I agree the dollar has a huge impact on commodity prices. Don't have the chart in front of me but in the early 2000's the dollar was higher than it is now and commodity prices were even lower than they are now so I have no doubt we are in a deflationary cycle period and it very much so is going to negatively impact commodity prices. When it comes down to it though; weather trumps everything as far as food commodity prices go. If we have an average to above average yields in the US then yes commodity prices will continue to tank; but if we were to have another 2012 type drought then prices would go up significantly. Maybe they wouldn't get as high as 2012 but they would go up significantly. If Astromet believes that crop years 2015-2020 will be average to above average for corn/soybeans/wheat yields then I will wholeheartedly agree with him that commodity prices will tumble due to deflation and over-production and PLC will be the ticket but if we have a 2012 type drought/heat this year like he told me earlier than ARC-CO might be better.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 10, 2015 19:22:05 GMT
Probably the most important chart to learn/watch, in regards to commodity prices it the dollar chart. When the dollar is high, which it presently is and will potentially stay, commodity prices remain low. The world presently has plenty of corn/wheat and soybeans. Would a weather disruption in the USA have world wide implications? Yes. The market reaction tho, could be somewhat muted if the world economy is still in a muted growth zone. As Astromet mentioned, potential deflation is a very real threat. Not only would this devalue present assets, it also has the effect of increasing the level of debt held by countries, as they have to pay debt with deflated currency. Lack of flexibility in the 2014 farm bill is one of its larger flaws. I agree the dollar has a huge impact on commodity prices. Don't have the chart in front of me but in the early 2000's the dollar was higher than it is now and commodity prices were even lower than they are now so I have no doubt we are in a deflationary cycle period and it very much so is going to negatively impact commodity prices. When it comes down to it though; weather trumps everything as far as food commodity prices go. If we have an average to above average yields in the US then yes commodity prices will continue to tank; but if we were to have another 2012 type drought then prices would go up significantly. Maybe they wouldn't get as high as 2012 but they would go up significantly. If Astromet believes that crop years 2015-2020 will be average to above average for corn/soybeans/wheat yields then I will wholeheartedly agree with him that commodity prices will tumble due to deflation and over-production and PLC will be the ticket but if we have a 2012 type drought/heat this year like he told me earlier than ARC-CO might be better. Here is my way of thinking. I looked at probabilities. I also looked at some studies I have, in regards to climate, to help establish the probabilities. Remember, I am only sharing what I have found for MY area, and it may not apply to anyone else's area. The odds of a drought of magnitude are more than 50%. With drought conditions always comes higher than normal temperatures, because the air is so dry. The actual absolute heat of the air probably hasn't changed much, but the bulb reading of dry hot air will be high. Central USA is at the apex of our normal long term wet cycle. Looking at proxy data, the downside has much more variable moisture patterns than the upside to the apex. To me, that is one of the parameters of my decision. Temp patterns. This is harder to figure out for the 4 years left. Where I live hasn't had the warming of other parts of the country. Averages have a way of working out, so that indicates to me it is going to be warmer than average. In my area, warmth is a friend, not an enemy. Also, when in drought, here, usually night time temps fall quite a bit being the air is so dry. Extra CO2 in the atmosphere allows plants to be more efficient users of what water there is to be had. That was very well demonstrated here in 2012. The other item that I used in consideration is what is happening in Brazil/Argentina. The record bean crops down there are going to fill the world pipeline. There is already too much wheat, and Brazil/Argentina are going to add to corn and soy stocks. Do either of these areas seem to be slowing growth? No. China is spending a lot of money to assure supply for their citizens. One thing the leaders there know for a fact is that a fed population is a happier population. China has lots of faults, but they also have huge reserves of cash, and a large population for the next few years. So, all in all, I think the next 5 years are going to be a bumpy ride. And I also have until the end of March to decide which way to swing. A lot can change between now and then. Thoughts?
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2015 21:57:20 GMT
Astro, Maybe there was a misunderstanding somewhere along the lines. The main point I'm interested in is this: On Nov. 1st in this forum you told me and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." In 2012, corn yields were 123.4 bu/ac which caused commodity prices to skyrocket to record highs. This past year saw a record yield of 173.4 bu/ac and saw commodity prices plummet. So if 2015 is going to be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest it would stand to reason that yields would be lower than 2012 and even with deflation prices would still have to go up otherwise there would be food shortages worldwide. That is really all I am questioning. I'm not questioning your 2-10 year forecast or anything else. Just questioning what you told me 3 months ago to what you are forecasting today when you said 2015 will be a stable climate in the Midwest. If you have changed your forecast for the Midwest in the past 3 months...fine...then there was just a misunderstanding on both our parts. I'm a farmer and 2012 nearly destroyed many of my friends across the Midwest due to the horrific heat and drought. I'm sorry if I I came on strong before but when you told me 3 months ago that 2015 will be worse than 2012; I'm sure that has many farmers across the Midwest very concerned for feeding their families. I mean no ill will; just want a clarification from what you told me 3 months ago to what you are saying today. Thank you and God bless. Case, First, the 2015 season is not yet here, so we will see about my climate forecast for the solar year. Sometimes people try to extract a free forecast out of me while making comments about my public seasonal climate forecasts. I don't like that because anyone would know that each region of North America has its own particular range of weather which can only be ascertained with extensive work, which I do, but the public climate forecasts I post are for the benefit of the general public, including farmers who want a heads up on what general climate conditions will be. And I am quite aware of what happened in 2012, as I was the forecaster who made the climate forecast about the impending drought in the Midwest, that I also said would then migrate westward into California and turn into a multi-year drought. That is the reason why I gave the forecast in the first place - to warn farmers ahead of time. Which I did - before the fact. As for 2015, yes, the overall climate conditions in the northern hemisphere will be 'warmer-than-normal' and will extend into the harvest season with an Indian Summer. I did NOT tell you that 2015 will be worse than 2012 in the Midwest, so I do not know where you came up with that because I did not say that. If you are going to make sense out of my climate forecasts, then you could have asked for clarification without adding in things that I did not say to you. A warmer climate is good for crops, but 2015 will not be like the drought I forecasted and which struck the Midwest, but rather an extended warmer climate 2015, which will tend to be warm and drier into the first half of 2016, then warmer and wetter in the second half of 2016. Regarding the medium to longer-range: My forecast for the arrival of global cooling is more important, and I warn you, and all farmers not to put short term concerns ahead of longer-range ones if you want to survive and stay in the business of farming.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 22:08:37 GMT
I agree Sigurdur that the next 5 years are going to be a bumpy ride. Just based on the past one would probably assume that the next 5 years will be reasonably decent years and thus making for lower prices.
But based on talking with university and government type people, its looking like for corn farmers at least for 2014 and 2015 they could be looking at payments of $30-$100/acre for both 2014 and 2015 through ARC-CO and very little to no PLC payments for at least those first 2 years. Now if prices continue to collapse then PLC could pick up and ARC-CO could go to zero for the last few years of the farm bill. Soybean payments would be less than corn for 2014 and 2015 but still could be something. Wheat I am unsure on. From talking with some Farm Service Agency people, they are saying a majority of people in the corn belt region are signing up for ARC-CO and those in wheat/cotton country are doing PLC.
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Post by case8930 on Feb 10, 2015 22:40:54 GMT
Astro, Maybe there was a misunderstanding somewhere along the lines. The main point I'm interested in is this: On Nov. 1st in this forum you told me and I quote "2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year." In 2012, corn yields were 123.4 bu/ac which caused commodity prices to skyrocket to record highs. This past year saw a record yield of 173.4 bu/ac and saw commodity prices plummet. So if 2015 is going to be warmer and drier than 2012 across the Midwest it would stand to reason that yields would be lower than 2012 and even with deflation prices would still have to go up otherwise there would be food shortages worldwide. That is really all I am questioning. I'm not questioning your 2-10 year forecast or anything else. Just questioning what you told me 3 months ago to what you are forecasting today when you said 2015 will be a stable climate in the Midwest. If you have changed your forecast for the Midwest in the past 3 months...fine...then there was just a misunderstanding on both our parts. I'm a farmer and 2012 nearly destroyed many of my friends across the Midwest due to the horrific heat and drought. I'm sorry if I I came on strong before but when you told me 3 months ago that 2015 will be worse than 2012; I'm sure that has many farmers across the Midwest very concerned for feeding their families. I mean no ill will; just want a clarification from what you told me 3 months ago to what you are saying today. Thank you and God bless. Case, First, the 2015 season is not yet here, so we will see about my climate forecast for the solar year. Sometimes people try to extract a free forecast out of me while making comments about my public seasonal climate forecasts. I don't like that because anyone would know that each region of North America has its own particular range of weather which can only be ascertained with extensive work, which I do, but the public climate forecasts I post are for the benefit of the general public, including farmers who want a heads up on what general climate conditions will be. And I am quite aware of what happened in 2012, as I was the forecaster who made the climate forecast about the impending drought in the Midwest, that I also said would then migrate westward into California and turn into a multi-year drought. That is the reason why I gave the forecast in the first place - to warn farmers ahead of time. Which I did - before the fact. As for 2015, yes, the overall climate conditions in the northern hemisphere will be 'warmer-than-normal' and will extend into the harvest season with an Indian Summer. I did NOT tell you that 2015 will be worse than 2012 in the Midwest, so I do not know where you came up with that because I did not say that. If you are going to make sense out of my climate forecasts, then you could have asked for clarification without adding in things that I did not say to you. A warmer climate is good for crops, but 2015 will not be like the drought I forecasted and which struck the Midwest, but rather an extended warmer climate 2015, which will tend to be warm and drier into the first half of 2016, then warmer and wetter in the second half of 2016. Regarding the medium to longer-range: My forecast for the arrival of global cooling is more important, and I warn you, and all farmers not to put short term concerns ahead of longer-range ones if you want to survive and stay in the business of farming. Below is the exact question I asked and the answer you gave me on this board 3 months ago. I didn't put any words in your mouth; I asked if 2015 would be as hot and dry as 2012 and you said it would be. Its all there in black and white below. Maybe you misspoke to me 3 months ago or have changed your forecast since but I was strictly going off what you told me 3 months ago. I applaud you trying to help farmers but don't want other farmers to be thinking we're going to be having a 2012 type drought if they read your comment 3 months ago and now 2015 is going to be a good year. case8930 Avatar Oct 30, 2014 at 10:00pm case8930 said: Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry.
2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2015 22:51:02 GMT
An aside on allocating base acres. Payment will be based on base acres as I understand it. Thus, the perceived crop production for the next 4 years, 2015-2019 is critical in ones thinking. I have 3 crops, wheat, corn and soybeans that will be allocated. The other crops I grow are called non-program crops. I am looking at a lot of things, trying to figure out what I think the weather pattern will be for the next 4 years. The largest item of interest is, drought or flood. Go figure eh? Looking at the past years, 1995-2015 so far, one looks at probability of drought or flood. In ND, we have had wet years, but that is part of a wet cycle that affects the North American mid part of the country from Texas, up through Kansas and north into Canada. We are at the apex of that wet cycle, and even during previous wet cycles there have been droughts. 2012 was somewhat dry, but not a serious drought by any means. Prior to this period, the last "real" drought was in 1988. Yes, there have been dry periods in between, but not full fledged multi-year droughts. Are we due for another? Odds are increasing every year. Ag in North America, as a whole, has experienced one of the most tranquil weather patterns on record for the past 25 years. This period is getting a bit long in the tooth. Thoughts Astromet? When allocating base acres, look for greatest revenue protection as a result of a mass flood or drought. Brazil has over taken the US as the #1 soybean producer in the world, however, that does not negate the importance of production in the USA. One other item that has to be taken into consideration is the level of CO2 available to plants. CO2 is beneficial not only during dry periods, but also during wet periods. Yes, better agronomic traits, but higher levels of CO2 have enhanced production significantly. This is born out by FACE experiments done in Illinois and Australia. So, being we have more CO2, what does that itself do to the risk potential of yield loss during periods of wet or severe dry? How will that affect the payment, and the risk incurred via crop insurance levels? Hi Sigurdur, The reason for the good weather patterns over the last, say 25 years, is because of solar-forced global warming, which is always great for crops and in that globally warm era, there have been record yields. Human beings also provide much of the C02 that is beneficial to plants, and not only in the burning of fossil fuels, but also since each human exhales 40,000 parts per million of CO2. However, I do not see CO2 as having a risk potential to yield losses. The climate and weather play the major role here. As for the new Farm Bill, the problem in the years 2015, 2016 and 2017 will be from the economic forces of deflation, which depresses prices. This is what farmers will have to face that also affects insurance.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 10, 2015 22:58:43 GMT
Case, First, the 2015 season is not yet here, so we will see about my climate forecast for the solar year. Sometimes people try to extract a free forecast out of me while making comments about my public seasonal climate forecasts. I don't like that because anyone would know that each region of North America has its own particular range of weather which can only be ascertained with extensive work, which I do, but the public climate forecasts I post are for the benefit of the general public, including farmers who want a heads up on what general climate conditions will be. And I am quite aware of what happened in 2012, as I was the forecaster who made the climate forecast about the impending drought in the Midwest, that I also said would then migrate westward into California and turn into a multi-year drought. That is the reason why I gave the forecast in the first place - to warn farmers ahead of time. Which I did - before the fact. As for 2015, yes, the overall climate conditions in the northern hemisphere will be 'warmer-than-normal' and will extend into the harvest season with an Indian Summer. I did NOT tell you that 2015 will be worse than 2012 in the Midwest, so I do not know where you came up with that because I did not say that. If you are going to make sense out of my climate forecasts, then you could have asked for clarification without adding in things that I did not say to you. A warmer climate is good for crops, but 2015 will not be like the drought I forecasted and which struck the Midwest, but rather an extended warmer climate 2015, which will tend to be warm and drier into the first half of 2016, then warmer and wetter in the second half of 2016. Regarding the medium to longer-range: My forecast for the arrival of global cooling is more important, and I warn you, and all farmers not to put short term concerns ahead of longer-range ones if you want to survive and stay in the business of farming. Below is the exact question I asked and the answer you gave me on this board 3 months ago. I didn't put any words in your mouth; I asked if 2015 would be as hot and dry as 2012 and you said it would be. Its all there in black and white below. Maybe you misspoke to me 3 months ago or have changed your forecast since but I was strictly going off what you told me 3 months ago. I applaud you trying to help farmers but don't want other farmers to be thinking we're going to be having a 2012 type drought if they read your comment 3 months ago and now 2015 is going to be a good year. case8930 Avatar Oct 30, 2014 at 10:00pm case8930 said: Astromet: Do you foresee the 2015 summer being as hot and dry as the 2012 summer was in the Midwest? I hope it will just be brief heatwaves and not exceptionally dry.
2015 will be a warmer and drier year than 2012 will be Case, that's my forecast. It will be so for the Midwest, West and the East of North America as well, a warmer year overall. The west will remain exceptionally and dangerously drier next year.
Again, Case, I did not say that there will be a 'drought' in the Midwest like 2012. This is the problem that you have which you need to clarify. Solar year 2015 will be warmer and drier only because it will be an extended year of that kind of climate - but not drought in the Midwest that destroyed crops. It was not the 'heat' that ruined crops per se, but rather the drought. It was drought-induced conditions that then led to heat stress on crops along with higher feed prices. Heat waves that take place during plant pollination can and do cut down on crop yields and that added to 2012 Midwest drought. The 2012 drought in the Midwest destroyed and/or damaged portions of the major crops, particularly field corn and soybeans. About 80% of agricultural land experienced drought in 2012, which made that drought more damaging than any drought since the 1950s. That 2012 drought increased in severity from June to July 2012 and then persisted into August. If I remember, by early September 2012, over 2,000 counties had been designated disaster areas by USDA in 2012, mainly because of drought. It led to later increases in the prices of corn, soybean, and other field crops and, then, to increases in animal feed. Though there were price increases for meats and animal-based products in the fourth quarter of 2012, most of the impacts came about on food prices in 2013 and 2014. But you're stuck on 2012's drought in the Midwest. Again, I forecasted that in advance, so I did my job warning people in advance and some prepared for it. I don't know why you continue to confuse 2012 with 2015, which are not similar solar years other than the fact that 2015 will be warmer-than-normal year overall, but will not see a similar drought in the Midwest like 2012. In astronomic calculations on climate conditions over North America, my general assessment is a good crop year because of the warmer-than-normal climate. Excepting California and parts of the Pacific Northwest which is in drought, the Midwest will have a long season to get higher crop yields. I haven't put out my 2015-2016 climate forecast yet, but you do not have to worry about a 2012 event in the Midwest by climate, but there will be impacts because of the economic forces of deflation, which I consider to be more important during the years 2015, 2016 and 2017 for farmers. That is why I posted advice for farmers in this particular post, because there are 'economic' forces that must not be ignored solely in favor of climate conditions. Though climate conditions play a major role, my forecast includes the fact that deflation is a real threat and farmers need to protect themselves against it price declines on food commodities. After 2017, regarding the climate, then there is the greater concerns that I have on the arrival and then impacts of global cooling which I consider to be even more important for farmers to prepare in advance.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 11, 2015 20:46:40 GMT
Case8930, I'm guessing that Asto is seeing some moisture in the second half of the season. Corn and beans just don't need much rainfall up until pollination for corn and pod set for beans. 2012 would have been a completely different yield scenario if we could have gotten some rain in August. As Astro always says, "Time will tell". He is forecasting for an early warm dry Spring and he has also made the statement that nobody in the Northern Hemisphere would be planting in cold wet soil, nobody. I'm thinking you'll have to embrace the old adage, plant in the dust and the bins will bust. With that said, I plan to buy out of the money courage calls so if the market gets on a run on early hot dry conditions we'll have the right to make some sales on those types of rallies. Again, time will tell, but this is how I'm interpreting Astro's forecast. Spring will indeed be early this year for much of North America Mark. There will be issues further north (Great Lakes region, also New England) with spring flooding, but overall, the climate for 2015 is warmer than normal and extends well into fall with Indian summer climate conditions. Depending on the region where one farms, there will be various weather issues, but again, the major issue I see is also economic with deflation and food commodity prices. Farmers need to combine weather forecasts with a keen eye on the markets this season.
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