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Post by icefisher on Feb 12, 2015 4:50:07 GMT
NO **** Astro. As I recall you said a while back Winter was going to be short and Spring was going to be earlier than usual and today the largest ski area in the PNW, The Summit at Snoqualmie, called it a day. They suspended operations due to lack of snow. Around here winter was maybe 3 weeks long. Its been spring since the beginning of January. January on average was 4 degrees above normal. Todays high was 20 degrees above normal. Its an above average summer day in February.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 12, 2015 22:47:34 GMT
NO **** Astro. As I recall you said a while back Winter was going to be short and Spring was going to be earlier than usual and today the largest ski area in the PNW, The Summit at Snoqualmie, called it a day. They suspended operations due to lack of snow. Considering the fact that it is February and mid-winter Codewhacker, this is yet another sure sign of the earlier-than-normal spring that is just ahead.
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Post by farmerted on Feb 14, 2015 18:05:25 GMT
Astro. Earlier you were talking about deflation in agriculture. Are you forecasting this from astrometeorology or just because of the higher $ and the way the rest of the world (and us) seems to be trying to flush ourselves down the crapper? My brain struggles with understanding how what u do works to forecast but seems like it does. Just wish there was a cliff notes version to read to help my understanding.
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Post by magellan on Feb 15, 2015 21:01:31 GMT
Early Spring? I would imagine it happens somewhere every year. This is the coldest first half of February I can remember, and certainly one of the coldest winters overall in these parts. It made it to a whopping high of....ZERO today.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 15, 2015 21:31:53 GMT
Early Spring? I would imagine it happens somewhere every year. This is the coldest first half of February I can remember, and certainly one of the coldest winters overall in these parts. It made it to a whopping high of....ZERO today. Magellan: On this one, February weather does not indicate spring weather. Remember, the Rosby's keep circling..
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Post by magellan on Feb 16, 2015 0:20:55 GMT
Early Spring? I would imagine it happens somewhere every year. This is the coldest first half of February I can remember, and certainly one of the coldest winters overall in these parts. It made it to a whopping high of....ZERO today. Magellan: On this one, February weather does not indicate spring weather. Remember, the Rosby's keep circling.. We'd be more than happy to get some of that heat circle through here from out west. This cold is supposed to last through Saturday, making it a solid 3 weeks straight. 5 years ago when we stopped burning wood/corn for heat and installed a geothermal system in 2010, the crawl space walls were foam sprayed so no more pipe freezing. The neighbor just called and said their pipes froze. This year I'm getting the entire house foam packed as the insulation has failed over the years. I fly RC planes and drones as a hobby and it's just no fun in this weather; have to wrap the batteries and of course the hands freeze regardless.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 19, 2015 21:26:47 GMT
Astro. Earlier you were talking about deflation in agriculture. Are you forecasting this from astrometeorology or just because of the higher $ and the way the rest of the world (and us) seems to be trying to flush ourselves down the crapper? My brain struggles with understanding how what u do works to forecast but seems like it does. Just wish there was a cliff notes version to read to help my understanding. Climate plays the major role in crop yields and affects the markets FarmerTed, however, you must remember that the forces of economics also plays a strong role and with deflation accelerating as I've forecasted, it will impact all farmers. See ->> www.producer.com/2015/02/bean-corn-prices-expected-to-drop/As for the climate, after we get pass February 22nd, we will begin to see spring making its move this year throughout the northern hemisphere, which will lead to an extended summer. Some try to 'nowcast' from current cold conditions, as we have just reached mid-winter, but they tend to forget that they are not forecasting. It will be a long, and warmer climate year in 2015, into 2016 according to my astronomic climate forecast.
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Post by magellan on Feb 21, 2015 19:55:46 GMT
I don't see an early Spring for most of the U.S. If anything it is a late drawn out Winter. The Great Lakes tell the story of a brutally cold season; temps are far below normal overall. Of course it will break some time after February 22, but look at the forecast for the next few weeks!
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 21:06:08 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 21, 2015 21:08:08 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 21, 2015 21:55:03 GMT
I don't see an early Spring for most of the U.S. If anything it is a late drawn out Winter. The Great Lakes tell the story of a brutally cold season; temps are far below normal overall. Of course it will break some time after February 22, but look at the forecast for the next few weeks! You're not going to get a spring forecast out of nowcasting Magellan, but again, for the Great Lakes, this has been trending to global cooling, which I forecasted years ago. As forecasted, the winter seasons are becoming colder and snowier, and this is the trending to the new climate regime of global cooling. There will not be a 'late drawn out Winter,' and I do not know how you came up with that other than guessing. The arctic front that you have been complaining about will not remain and there will be a general warming that will follow. As for the climate conditions for most of the nation, excepting far northern regions like the Great Lakes, temperatures will indeed begin to warm. We are still in February, so it is not a surprise to see the Great Lakes seeing below normal temperatures. However, the warming will continue as we near the equinox and we will see that with latitude lines of snow, freezing rain, and rains for regions south of the Great Lakes, and especially for the Midwest to western U.S., as well as the southeastern U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic. This spring will turn out to be warmer than normal, and extend into a long, hot summer with an Indian summer. But, nowcasting from current conditions does not mean that the spring will not be warmer than normal. You will have to just wait and see for yourself. I've already been there, done that.
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 23, 2015 20:31:27 GMT
You're not going to get a spring forecast out of nowcasting Magellan, but again, for the Great Lakes, this has been trending to global cooling, which I forecasted years ago. As forecasted, the winter seasons are becoming colder and snowier, and this is the trending to the new climate regime of global cooling. There will not be a 'late drawn out Winter,' and I do not know how you came up with that other than guessing. The arctic front that you have been complaining about will not remain and there will be a general warming that will follow. As for the climate conditions for most of the nation, excepting far northern regions like the Great Lakes, temperatures will indeed begin to warm. We are still in February, so it is not a surprise to see the Great Lakes seeing below normal temperatures. However, the warming will continue as we near the equinox and we will see that with latitude lines of snow, freezing rain, and rains for regions south of the Great Lakes, and especially for the Midwest to western U.S., as well as the southeastern U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic. This spring will turn out to be warmer than normal, and extend into a long, hot summer with an Indian summer. But, nowcasting from current conditions does not mean that the spring will not be warmer than normal. You will have to just wait and see for yourself. I've already been there, done that. Astro, I was listening to Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary today and he mentioned a coming flip in the NAO or the AMO or something like that and he said it will bring back cold to the PNW. Do you see the potential for cold across the entire country or do you see the West Coast warm and the East Coast cold like we have now, a divided country, turning into a cold West Coast and a warm East Coast? Considering that Joe was reading my long-range forecasts on the coming of global cooling on AccuWeather in the midst of all their 'man=made global warming' mania, and then Joe left AccuWeather after his disagreements with them when it comes to actual long-range forecasting (rather than 'man-made global warming opinions and all the rest of the dumb crap that goes on at AccuWeather) it is not a surprise to see many 'forecasters' still in the dark about the coming new solar year's climate. They, like NOAA/NWS and others, do not do seasonal forecasts at all. They fail all the time, and certainly are unable to conduct climate forecasting. They all have missed global cooling and by the time they do 'get it,' it will be far too late. Years ago, in the last decade, I called for increasing colder climate conditions during winters which has been the trending to global cooling, which I continue to state is on the way and will become official in late 2017. As for the coming change in temperatures going into March 2015 between the west and eastern U.S., this will occur, but as we near the equinox, all indications I have calculated are for a quickly warming spring for the northern hemisphere, then an extended warmer-than-average summer season and an Indian summer well into fall 2015 and early winter 2016. Although Bastardi seems to want to forecast what he calls "a viciously cold winter for the 2015-16 season,' - I don't have that. In fact, next winter will be late in starting (not until January 2016) and then will continue into February and March 2016, before the winter ends. It will be a short winter next year according to my climate forecast. The next two solar years, 2015 and 2016 are warmer-than-average years according to my climate forecast for the world, in both hemispheres. It is the waning of solar-forced global warming, with the Sun's maximum in solar cycle #24, so we will see warm temperatures, with dry conditions in 2015, then into 2016 with warm, dry, then warm, wetter conditions in the second half of 2016.
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Post by magellan on Feb 26, 2015 17:30:20 GMT
What date is the definition of an early Spring? March 19?
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 26, 2015 19:52:37 GMT
What date is the definition of an early Spring? March 19? Depends on where you are for one Magellan. The PNW has been seeing an early spring, and conditions will also improve into early March. However, the definition of an early spring in my meaning is also that Spring 2015 will be warmer and drier than the last two spring seasons, which saw an extended winter. We won't have that this spring. At this time of year, there are those, and most likely yourself, that tend to be impatient, but it is still February if you haven't noticed. So quit whining so much and be patient. You will see and experience stronger winter seasons that will bring colder spring seasons under the climate regime of global cooling in the years to come, so you had better start to learn to deal with colder, wetter and cloudier conditions anyway. As for that graphic you posted, you know, I really get sick and tired of some people posting those kind graphics that either overstate or understate true conditions while using it to support their opinions, or in this case, your whining about winter. That graphic does not reflect the true temperatures across the U.S. and if it is that cold in the PNW for instance, then what about this report? ->> www.santacruzsentinel.com/general-news/20150217/what-winter-northwest-enjoys-high-temperatures
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 26, 2015 22:01:33 GMT
If the atmosphere is generally less humid the atmospheric temperatures can rapidly change because of the low atmospheric enthalpy. The same amount of heat in Kilojoules/Kilogram will raise the atmospheric temperature significantly more for the same amount of heat. Climate 'scientists' have been using the incorrect metric for the greenhouse effect. But that is because climate 'science' is a soft science like psychology or sociology; a refuge for those who find media studies too exacting.
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