Climate Change in the North American Grain Belt
Mar 14, 2015 23:44:38 GMT
sigurdur, AstroMet, and 1 more like this
Post by missouriboy on Mar 14, 2015 23:44:38 GMT
After three weeks of constructing longitudinal cross-sections of the American Grain Belt from NCDC weather station records,
I decided to create my first thread and post the results along with some observations. Please feel free to skewer me as
your conscience sees fit. I'd really appreciate the feedback / criticism, as I'm hoping to learn something.
I present the following graph of mean summer temperatures (5-yr avg. in degrees C) across a longitudinal cross-section
extending approximately 600 miles from Manhattan, KS to Grand Forks, SD for the years 1900 to 2014. I chose summer
temperature because of its importance to grain production, particularly in the northern areas of the grain belt.
After staring and scratching for awhile, I had a vision ... must be from the Native American side of the family. I see a
temperature plateau in the northern half (south side of graph) of the cross-section that narrows the temperature difference
between the two halves (north and south) from ~5 or 6 degrees C prior to 1930, to about 3 degrees C from about 1930-31 to 1991-92.
The left side of the plateau seems to coincide with increasing solar activity, as measured by sunspots, leading up to what many
appear to refer to as the Grand Solar Maximum, which reached its first of two peaks in 1957. The right side of the plateau seems to
coincide with decreasing solar activity leading away from its second peak in 1989. Both sides of the plateau decline precipitously by
about 4 degrees C. Between these bounding peaks is a relatively level temperature surface perched about 2 degrees C above the
the pre-1930 surface. The right side of the plateau has not yet reached, but appears to be headed(?) toward the pre-1930 temperature
surface, which averaged about 19 degrees C, versus about 21 degrees C. I note that both the left and right sides of this plateau
also correspond with a switch into a positive AMO period, but there is another negative AMO phase that is totally contained within
the temperature plateau boundaries. This feature does not show up in the southern half of the section. There is a southern temperature
increase of comparable magnitude in the 1930s, but temperatures rapidly return to levels very little above their pre-1930 level,
and remain relatively flat beyond. DOES ANYONE ELSE SEE THIS .... or, have I been chewing too much peyote?
How these results, taken from NCDC station records, relate to the soaring values of GISSTemp, I have not a clue. But, I do
believe that temperature trends may have important effects on grain production, particularly in the northern plains. There are
several Coolists, David Archibald and others, that are painting a bleak picture of future grain production in North America.
I noted that North America accounted for about 20% of global grain production in 2014. With only 5% of world population,
our grain feeds the world. The only comparable production region, in total quantity, is China, which eats most, if not all of
their production. The Ukrainian-Russian Steppes, together with Argentina and Brazil, together only account for one-half of
of North American production. Archibald believes that mass starvation is a real possibility as we trend toward solar minimum.
Astro has stated something similar. This issue may become a huge issue in the not-too-distant future. Of course, the warmists
think we're just going to simmer in our own juices.
I decided to create my first thread and post the results along with some observations. Please feel free to skewer me as
your conscience sees fit. I'd really appreciate the feedback / criticism, as I'm hoping to learn something.
I present the following graph of mean summer temperatures (5-yr avg. in degrees C) across a longitudinal cross-section
extending approximately 600 miles from Manhattan, KS to Grand Forks, SD for the years 1900 to 2014. I chose summer
temperature because of its importance to grain production, particularly in the northern areas of the grain belt.
After staring and scratching for awhile, I had a vision ... must be from the Native American side of the family. I see a
temperature plateau in the northern half (south side of graph) of the cross-section that narrows the temperature difference
between the two halves (north and south) from ~5 or 6 degrees C prior to 1930, to about 3 degrees C from about 1930-31 to 1991-92.
The left side of the plateau seems to coincide with increasing solar activity, as measured by sunspots, leading up to what many
appear to refer to as the Grand Solar Maximum, which reached its first of two peaks in 1957. The right side of the plateau seems to
coincide with decreasing solar activity leading away from its second peak in 1989. Both sides of the plateau decline precipitously by
about 4 degrees C. Between these bounding peaks is a relatively level temperature surface perched about 2 degrees C above the
the pre-1930 surface. The right side of the plateau has not yet reached, but appears to be headed(?) toward the pre-1930 temperature
surface, which averaged about 19 degrees C, versus about 21 degrees C. I note that both the left and right sides of this plateau
also correspond with a switch into a positive AMO period, but there is another negative AMO phase that is totally contained within
the temperature plateau boundaries. This feature does not show up in the southern half of the section. There is a southern temperature
increase of comparable magnitude in the 1930s, but temperatures rapidly return to levels very little above their pre-1930 level,
and remain relatively flat beyond. DOES ANYONE ELSE SEE THIS .... or, have I been chewing too much peyote?
How these results, taken from NCDC station records, relate to the soaring values of GISSTemp, I have not a clue. But, I do
believe that temperature trends may have important effects on grain production, particularly in the northern plains. There are
several Coolists, David Archibald and others, that are painting a bleak picture of future grain production in North America.
I noted that North America accounted for about 20% of global grain production in 2014. With only 5% of world population,
our grain feeds the world. The only comparable production region, in total quantity, is China, which eats most, if not all of
their production. The Ukrainian-Russian Steppes, together with Argentina and Brazil, together only account for one-half of
of North American production. Archibald believes that mass starvation is a real possibility as we trend toward solar minimum.
Astro has stated something similar. This issue may become a huge issue in the not-too-distant future. Of course, the warmists
think we're just going to simmer in our own juices.