Post by missouriboy on Mar 20, 2015 3:33:00 GMT
I am NOT a forecaster! I admire those that do ... but I'm just a guy that's interested in climate. I read and I ponder.
We are either blessed or cursed to live in 'interesting' times ... and the next decade, climate wise, will be most exciting.
The limp AGW chicken appears to be strangling on the branch, while the coolists appear to be on a roll with a rising scientific
wind on their port quarter. This decade will likely tell the story, or a sizeable portion of it, one way or another. So ... we should
expectantly observe and record what happens.
I was reviewing the 1991 article by Chistensen and Lassen, who found a good correlation between solar cycle length and North
American surface temperatures in the next solar cycle ... a source found in Archibald's, 'Twilight of Abundance'.
www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Solar%20Cycle%20-%20Friis-Chr_Lassen-.pdf
The thesis essentially states that short solar cycles are followed by periods of warming, while long solar cycles are followed by
periods of cooling. Cycle length is assumed to be a proxy for solar activity of all types, many which we know little about.
I had read that solar cycle 23 was a long cycle ... so I set out to check it and other cycles. At 164 months, calculated from peak to peak,
meaning the peak of cycle 23 to the peak of cycle 24, this cycle has been 25% longer than the previous cycle. This is relatively rare in the series.
The last such occurrence happened between the peaks of solar cycles 11 and 12 (1870 and 1883). It too, was 164 months in length.
If there is credence in the thesis, then we should see similar climate events, in the form of weather, as occurred following the
last similar cycle. The length between solar cycles 3 and 4 peaks (1778 and 1787) was 163 months long. This, of course, immediately
preceded the 202 month cycle that lead up to the Dalton Minimum.
So what happened in the 1880s? For starters, there are winters of legend. While we don't have a lot in terms of instrument
recordings in the Midwest, we do have many stories. The winters of 1880-81 and 1887-88 were vividly described by Laura Ingalls Wilder
in her books, "The Long Winter" and "In All Its Fury", whose substance has been substantiated by other researchers.
usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/columnist/vergano/story/2011/08/Little-House-author-right-on-1880s-winter/50065682/1
There are also the events of 1883-85, also known as 'the year without a summer'. Of course, this was compounded by the
eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. People starved ... It snowed in June in New Orleans ... food prices increased by 500% ... people planted
potatoes, cabbages and rye. "Starvation Winter of the Blackfeet" tells the story of a conquered people under a 'less-giving sun'.
My grandmother's grandmother was Blackfoot ... and no Senator Warren, that DOES NOT make me an Indian ... but I'm still twice the
Indian you are ... and I didn't use it for affirmative action credits!!! So there!
saokioheritage.com/AcrobatFiles/West%20--%20Starvation%20Winter.pdf
On pages that rate the top 10 blizzards, two occurred in the 1880s: the Great Blizzard of 1888 and the School House (Children's) Blizzard,
also in 1888. These are just the results of about 30 minutes of perusing the web. But, you get the initial picture... things weren't pleasant.
So what have we seen so far in the run-up to the end of the current peak-to-peak cycle? Well, the winters 2009-10, 2013-14 and 2014-15
have all had their 'cool' points. The 2013-14 winter was long here in the lower mid-west. It might be noted that the winter of 2009-10
occurred 3 years before the peak of solar cycle 24 ... this is equivalent to the temporal placement of the winter of 1880-81 in relation to
solar cycle 12. Also note that the great blizzard of 1887-88 was almost exactly 3 years beyond the peak of solar cycle 12. That makes
winter 2017-18, one to watch perhaps. If we live long enough, what might we see?
We are either blessed or cursed to live in 'interesting' times ... and the next decade, climate wise, will be most exciting.
The limp AGW chicken appears to be strangling on the branch, while the coolists appear to be on a roll with a rising scientific
wind on their port quarter. This decade will likely tell the story, or a sizeable portion of it, one way or another. So ... we should
expectantly observe and record what happens.
I was reviewing the 1991 article by Chistensen and Lassen, who found a good correlation between solar cycle length and North
American surface temperatures in the next solar cycle ... a source found in Archibald's, 'Twilight of Abundance'.
www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/Solar%20Cycle%20-%20Friis-Chr_Lassen-.pdf
The thesis essentially states that short solar cycles are followed by periods of warming, while long solar cycles are followed by
periods of cooling. Cycle length is assumed to be a proxy for solar activity of all types, many which we know little about.
I had read that solar cycle 23 was a long cycle ... so I set out to check it and other cycles. At 164 months, calculated from peak to peak,
meaning the peak of cycle 23 to the peak of cycle 24, this cycle has been 25% longer than the previous cycle. This is relatively rare in the series.
The last such occurrence happened between the peaks of solar cycles 11 and 12 (1870 and 1883). It too, was 164 months in length.
If there is credence in the thesis, then we should see similar climate events, in the form of weather, as occurred following the
last similar cycle. The length between solar cycles 3 and 4 peaks (1778 and 1787) was 163 months long. This, of course, immediately
preceded the 202 month cycle that lead up to the Dalton Minimum.
So what happened in the 1880s? For starters, there are winters of legend. While we don't have a lot in terms of instrument
recordings in the Midwest, we do have many stories. The winters of 1880-81 and 1887-88 were vividly described by Laura Ingalls Wilder
in her books, "The Long Winter" and "In All Its Fury", whose substance has been substantiated by other researchers.
usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/science/columnist/vergano/story/2011/08/Little-House-author-right-on-1880s-winter/50065682/1
There are also the events of 1883-85, also known as 'the year without a summer'. Of course, this was compounded by the
eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. People starved ... It snowed in June in New Orleans ... food prices increased by 500% ... people planted
potatoes, cabbages and rye. "Starvation Winter of the Blackfeet" tells the story of a conquered people under a 'less-giving sun'.
My grandmother's grandmother was Blackfoot ... and no Senator Warren, that DOES NOT make me an Indian ... but I'm still twice the
Indian you are ... and I didn't use it for affirmative action credits!!! So there!
saokioheritage.com/AcrobatFiles/West%20--%20Starvation%20Winter.pdf
On pages that rate the top 10 blizzards, two occurred in the 1880s: the Great Blizzard of 1888 and the School House (Children's) Blizzard,
also in 1888. These are just the results of about 30 minutes of perusing the web. But, you get the initial picture... things weren't pleasant.
So what have we seen so far in the run-up to the end of the current peak-to-peak cycle? Well, the winters 2009-10, 2013-14 and 2014-15
have all had their 'cool' points. The 2013-14 winter was long here in the lower mid-west. It might be noted that the winter of 2009-10
occurred 3 years before the peak of solar cycle 24 ... this is equivalent to the temporal placement of the winter of 1880-81 in relation to
solar cycle 12. Also note that the great blizzard of 1887-88 was almost exactly 3 years beyond the peak of solar cycle 12. That makes
winter 2017-18, one to watch perhaps. If we live long enough, what might we see?