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Post by msphar on Dec 12, 2018 4:12:11 GMT
How does the El Nino of 2016 fit into your scenario ?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 13, 2018 20:34:56 GMT
I thought I would put this here as 'Barry' gets a mention..... "The Latest on the Double-Dynamo Solar Model, and Dr. Zharkova’s Predictions of a Grand Minimum
By Stephanie Osborn
The Osborn post is a lengthy explanation of Dr. Zharkova’s model, model updates and predictions, with some additional example of how the ‘barycentric wobble’ influences the earth’s temperature {{{Cough Cough}}}. For readers who found Dr. Zharkova’s GWPF Presentation confusing, this article will help with the understanding of her model’s significance, and the output is worth considering."nextgrandminimum.com/2018/12/12/the-latest-on-the-double-dynamo-solar-model-and-dr-zharkovas-predictions-of-a-grand-minimum/
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 15, 2019 21:28:21 GMT
I thought I would put this here as 'Barry' gets a mention..... "The Latest on the Double-Dynamo Solar Model, and Dr. Zharkova’s Predictions of a Grand Minimum
By Stephanie Osborn
The Osborn post is a lengthy explanation of Dr. Zharkova’s model, model updates and predictions, with some additional example of how the ‘barycentric wobble’ influences the earth’s temperature {{{Cough Cough}}}. For readers who found Dr. Zharkova’s GWPF Presentation confusing, this article will help with the understanding of her model’s significance, and the output is worth considering."nextgrandminimum.com/2018/12/12/the-latest-on-the-double-dynamo-solar-model-and-dr-zharkovas-predictions-of-a-grand-minimum/Her model is correct nautonnier as the Sun's Grand Minimum will be quite strong. We already are in the climate of global cooling since mid-December 2017, as I've long forecasted.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 15, 2019 21:53:11 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 16, 2019 0:10:48 GMT
How does the El Nino of 2016 fit into your scenario ? There was no El Nino in 2016. Never happened.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 16, 2019 1:22:12 GMT
I thought I would put this here as 'Barry' gets a mention..... "The Latest on the Double-Dynamo Solar Model, and Dr. Zharkova’s Predictions of a Grand Minimum
By Stephanie Osborn
The Osborn post is a lengthy explanation of Dr. Zharkova’s model, model updates and predictions, with some additional example of how the ‘barycentric wobble’ influences the earth’s temperature {{{Cough Cough}}}. For readers who found Dr. Zharkova’s GWPF Presentation confusing, this article will help with the understanding of her model’s significance, and the output is worth considering."nextgrandminimum.com/2018/12/12/the-latest-on-the-double-dynamo-solar-model-and-dr-zharkovas-predictions-of-a-grand-minimum/One of the most instructive articles and set of comments that I have read. Thank you Naut. I intend to distribute it widely.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 16, 2019 18:20:41 GMT
I thought I would put this here as 'Barry' gets a mention..... "The Latest on the Double-Dynamo Solar Model, and Dr. Zharkova’s Predictions of a Grand Minimum
By Stephanie Osborn
The Osborn post is a lengthy explanation of Dr. Zharkova’s model, model updates and predictions, with some additional example of how the ‘barycentric wobble’ influences the earth’s temperature {{{Cough Cough}}}. For readers who found Dr. Zharkova’s GWPF Presentation confusing, this article will help with the understanding of her model’s significance, and the output is worth considering."nextgrandminimum.com/2018/12/12/the-latest-on-the-double-dynamo-solar-model-and-dr-zharkovas-predictions-of-a-grand-minimum/I enjoyed this peer reviewed scientific paper published on this obvious international recognized website Yep thats pretty much the state of solar science. Whoever correctly predicted the most recent solar cycle gets elevated dramatically and if you can produce a correlation to previous cycle you get a lot of extra credit. When that settles down we will know solar science is being better understood. Sort of think we won't know that for a long time. p.s. Its probably fair to compare theories a bit. Natural change has some recognizable patterns to them, though earth's climate history is very sparse to give much confidence to them as being cycles. Weakness of that system is what created an opening for obviously biased histories like the hockey stick to gain some support. OTOH, the Svensmark theory still lacks a clear quantified physical link. The physical link has been established but there is are still challenges to quantify it. The emissions theory is only a little better established with the largest bulk of it still without verification. Further the emissions theory has weaknesses in its causal attribution. Slowing of cooling is dependent upon a warming atmosphere, yet the theory is described as a warming surface warming the atmosphere. A bit of chicken vs the egg controversy. . . .except its abundantly clear that the chicken causes the egg and the egg causes the chicken.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 16, 2019 20:32:29 GMT
Taking this graphic from Astro's thread starter. Now take the description from the paper that the Sun is a ball of plasma with each atom/ion in its own orbit around the barycenter and also spinning with the Sun's rotation. What is the effect of the path of the barycenter through the ball of plasma with some plasma retrograde and some prograde with the rotation of the Sun. I would expect it to cause some 'swirling' and upset any stability leading perhaps to more sun spots. However, we are now in a period where the barycenter is going outside the sun (it can go 2 solar diameters out) so should the swirling would calm down and the sun become quieter? If so then as seen in the diagram there are about 8 years now before the barycenter briefly penetrates the Sun then goes back out to a diameter or so away. Is this the mechanism that gives us active and quiet period of the Sun?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 17, 2019 21:15:23 GMT
I know it can feel like Seattle is the entire world when sitting in a jam on the I-5; but there are a lot of other places ....
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2019 22:19:24 GMT
Welcome to the equatorial exhaust loop. I'm on the polar intake loop. Trade ya.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 17, 2019 22:25:36 GMT
Has anyone seen a model/animation that can reproduce Astro's diagram but with the barycenter moving through space and the Sun rotating and orbiting the barycenter? It strikes me that would show the inertial effects on the Sun with a little more clarity.
Now for the whipped cream and cherry on the top.... run that model from say 1900 but show the sunspots as they were on the sun. That visualization would show if there was any link between the inertial effects of the barycenter (in reality the gravity of the larger planets) and the formation and progression of sunspots.
Has that been done?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 17, 2019 22:31:33 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2019 22:40:55 GMT
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Post by AstroMet on Jan 18, 2019 23:12:32 GMT
Codewhacker, you seem to have forgotten my forecast for irregular seasons in 2018 and 2019 with my forecast that true winter would not arrive until closer to February 2019 and that winter will consist of March and April 2019? See ->> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2770/global-cooling-irregular-seasons-2018I'm really sick and tired of simple-minded comments about the climate and weather when I previously forecasted what the weather would be like long in advance. And yes, global cooling, which includes irregular seasons with irregular weather conditions, extreme temperature variations, the whole ball of wax, which is what the Sun's quiescent phase causes.
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Post by icefisher on Jan 19, 2019 3:47:46 GMT
Codewhacker, you seem to have forgotten my forecast for irregular seasons in 2018 and 2019 with my forecast that true winter would not arrive until closer to February 2019 and that winter will consist of March and April 2019? See ->> solarcycle24com.proboards.com/thread/2770/global-cooling-irregular-seasons-2018I'm really sick and tired of simple-minded comments about the climate and weather when I previously forecasted what the weather would be like long in advance. And yes, global cooling, which includes irregular seasons with irregular weather conditions, extreme temperature variations, the whole ball of wax, which is what the Sun's quiescent phase causes. I think you are correct on that Astromet. Mean temperature change isn't that noticeable. But the weather fluctuations here have been invoking in me lately a feeling of deja vu from way back in the 1950's. Back in the late 1970's all the talk about ENSO was a lot of precipitation associate with El Nino and drought associated with La Nina. Then for the next 30 some years it never seemed to match up to local expectations until about 2012 when California's megadrought was ushered in with the rewarming phase of the 2011/12 La Nina continuing until the 2015 El Nino peaked. Since then we have a lot of precipitation in 2016. Now almost as if on que we are having a wet start to 2019 right in time with a possibly peaking ENSO number. This is how I remember it 6 decades ago. If I can gather up the motivation maybe I will try to match local precipitation records with ENSO and see if the pattern you suggest was apparent 6 decades ago.
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