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Post by missouriboy on Jul 20, 2018 19:33:24 GMT
Indeed. Looks like HADCRUT2v (b) takes off into space and (c) shows extremes about 1000 AD equaling late 1990s records. Add another 20 years (to today) and values may be going to hell pretty fast. www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch6s6-6.htmlFigure 6.10. Records of NH temperature variation during the last 1.3 kyr. (a) Annual mean instrumental temperature records, identified in Table 6.1. (b) Reconstructions using multiple climate proxy records, identified in Table 6.1, including three records (JBB..1998, MBH..1999 and BOS..2001) shown in the TAR, and the HadCRUT2v instrumental temperature record in black. (c) Overlap of the published multi-decadal time scale uncertainty ranges of all temperature reconstructions identified in Table 6.1 (except for RMO..2005 and PS2004), with temperatures within ±1 standard error (SE) of a reconstruction ‘scoring’ 10%, and regions within the 5 to 95% range ‘scoring’ 5% (the maximum 100% is obtained only for temperatures that fall within ±1 SE of all 10 reconstructions). The HadCRUT2v instrumental temperature record is shown in black. All series have been smoothed with a Gaussian-weighted filter to remove fluctuations on time scales less than 30 years; smoothed values are obtained up to both ends of each record by extending the records with the mean of the adjacent existing values. All temperatures represent anomalies (°C) from the 1961 to 1990 mean.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 9, 2018 13:30:22 GMT
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2017JD027749Fire regimes across the globe have great spatial and temporal variability, and these are influence by many factors including anthropogenic management, climate, and vegetation types. Here we utilize the satellite‐based “active fire” product, from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors, to statistically analyze variability and trends in fire activity from the global to regional scales. We split up the regions by economic development, region/geographical land use, clusters of fire‐abundant areas, or by religious/cultural influence. Weekly cycle tests are conducted to highlight and quantify part of the anthropogenic influence on fire regime across the world. We find that there is a strong statistically significant decline in 2001–2016 active fires globally linked to an increase in net primary productivity observed in northern Africa, along with global agricultural expansion and intensification, which generally reduces fire activity. There are high levels of variability, however. The large‐scale regions exhibit either little change or decreasing in fire activity except for strong increasing trends in India and China, where rapid population increase is occurring, leading to agricultural intensification and increased crop residue burning. Variability in Canada has been linked to a warming global climate leading to a longer growing season and higher fuel loads. Areas with a strong weekly cycle give a good indication of where fire management is being applied most extensively, for example, the United States, where few areas retain a natural fire regime.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 10, 2018 0:20:53 GMT
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 10, 2018 1:21:19 GMT
So it was warmer then?
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Post by Ratty on Aug 10, 2018 1:35:58 GMT
" And statistical models suggest that, as the climate warms, such megadroughts are increasingly likely to return.
" Or the climate might be wetter?
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Post by icefisher on Aug 10, 2018 1:42:41 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 10, 2018 4:03:52 GMT
In our cold season it's dry around here. But then, we are a little to the east and it's been a while.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 12, 2018 20:21:03 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Aug 12, 2018 21:56:54 GMT
California's fire problem this year is a product of the extremely wet water year of 2016/17. Its rare in California to get a lot of rain and the result of it because of the great sunshine we also get, is a literal explosion of growth in the underbrush. Follow a wet year with a dry year and all that underbrush is still standing but without hardly a drop of moisture in it.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 13, 2018 0:57:19 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 13, 2018 1:56:46 GMT
Mark Twain wrote that ... "in the West, whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting over". That high bump in the hydrology just before the dust bowl is the total water allocated between the various states under the Colorado River Compact of 1929. There is going to be plenty of fighting over who doesn't get what is not there to give. Yippie yo ki yay!
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Post by acidohm on Aug 13, 2018 6:14:52 GMT
Mark Twain wrote that ... "in the West, whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting over". That high bump in the hydrology just before the dust bowl is the total water allocated between the various states under the Colorado River Compact of 1929. There is going to be plenty of fighting over who doesn't get what is not there to give. Yippie yo ki yay! Pretty much the exact opposite to the Scots 🤣 except they're pretty much talking about whiskey, not so much water 😉
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Post by Ratty on Aug 13, 2018 12:34:58 GMT
" Yippie yo ki yay! "
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 18, 2018 4:29:39 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 18, 2018 5:35:16 GMT
The problem for these 'scientists' it that California is not hotter and drier than ever. However, it is probably true that there is more fuel for these fires as small natural fires have been extinguished as they start and nobody is allowed to clear underbrush or dead trees. So eventually, one of the smaller fires becomes a raging fire that cannot be stopped. Well done 'environmentalists' you are reaping what you sowed.
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