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Post by acidohm on Oct 2, 2015 13:47:45 GMT
I think this will be a battle ground in the future as warmists continue to use the AMOC slowdown as an example of global warming effects.
In reality I suspect that continued thought and research to this effect leaves us scientifically poorer as no one with big bucks looks into alternative causes.
Is it possible that this disturbance to a transport of heat will bring weather issues to N Europe, even Atlantic America?
Is it possible there is a solar link hitherto unidentified?
Personally I have been uttering to friends and family that this winter may be worse then last year, but 16/17 may well be a problem similar to 09/10 etc. I base this on the observation of 5 unusually snowy winters in the UK, and then found out about solar cycles, it just seems to fit.
However, research always lead me to understand the cold would be an atmospheric event rather then an oceanic one....Most likely because a) research exists to support this and b) I hadn't thought to specifically examine the ocean as a possibility. But then in nearly 2 years of reading the usual sources, this has never been mentioned to my knowledge.
If there is any supporting evidence of solar influence on the North Atlantic please do share here....otherwise, good luck to all those near this ocean, and I'm sure it's going to be very interesting to see where the science lands on this...keep open minded!!
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Post by walnut on Oct 2, 2015 14:25:36 GMT
So England might begin to feel like the eastern Siberian coast at the similar latitude.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 2, 2015 14:33:49 GMT
Bearing in mind the average temp for january in oxford is between 1 and 7 degrees celcius (i imagine that is a night and day average) It wouldnt take much of a drop to greatly increase the amount of ice/snow we experience. It wouldnt have to be -10 to effect our way of life!! But then during the colder years recently we had a number of mornings at -8 or so, and when it did snow, it would take 2-3 weeks to disappear. If it did become like Eastern Siberia here we would be f*****d  |
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Post by walnut on Oct 2, 2015 14:55:02 GMT
You really would. People don't so much live in places like that. Interesting indeed if that is developing?
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Post by walnut on Oct 2, 2015 15:03:48 GMT
Incidentally, after a little excitement for a week or so, the sun may be going blank again. Funny that the media takes the opportunity to hype a few minutes of solar activity, when the real story is the increasingly anemic sun. I guess that headline is just not as interesting? Apparently it will take $12/bushel wheat to get their attention.
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Post by acidohm on Oct 2, 2015 16:02:33 GMT
Spot 2422 bucked the recent trend for sure...be interesting to see if it maintains itself to the eastern limb...
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Post by icefisher on Oct 2, 2015 19:13:09 GMT
Spot 2422 bucked the recent trend for sure...be interesting to see if it maintains itself to the eastern limb... In politics hare brained theories can have a lot of legs and have modicum of truth to them. Does global warming cause a slowing of AMOC? The answer seems to be yeah it could very well! Reduce the difference in temperature between the equator and pole and you will have less of a convection loop driving surface currents towards the poles. Makes perfect sense to me. Heck the theory even has global warming accompanied by an ice age. Problem is isn't it supposed to get warmer generally? Fact is these bozos don't have a clue what is going to happen. We may indeed see cold in Europe and Greenland and the question isn't if its global warming but if its going to do anything significant to create climate refugees. That last time this happened I guess some Vikings stayed behind and died of starvation or freezing to death and some became refugees whose tales became lost to the ages. . . .except maybe talk of a northwest passage. The NGO community seeing a huge treasure chest in all this have been trying to change the name of this manufactured crisis to "climate change" for more than a decade realizing they needed to keep this going no matter what the climate did. Of course the problem was global warming though absent for 2 decades had become like flying saucers, no credible way aliens would fly around in anything different! Amundsen completed the first passage talking to the descendents of those who the Vikings shared the region with. |
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Post by acidohm on Oct 2, 2015 19:48:34 GMT
I agree Icefisher....AGW theory effecting AMOC seems legitimate....can't find anything to theorize against it directly, but would enjoy seeing some competition to it!!
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Post by flearider on Oct 2, 2015 20:58:16 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Oct 3, 2015 5:25:45 GMT
[So England might begin to feel like the eastern Siberian coast at the similar latitude.]
Not really. For a good analogy, you need to look at places with large oceans to the west.
Prince Rupert in BC does not really fit as it is protected from the interior cold by the Rockies.
If Gulf Stream cuts out, I think you just call a 4degC drop in average winter English temps. [Quite nasty enough]. Also, cold spells might be a lot colder - Europe would be frigid.
That assumes this does not trigger an Ice Age.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 3, 2015 10:50:21 GMT
[So England might begin to feel like the eastern Siberian coast at the similar latitude.] Not really. For a good analogy, you need to look at places with large oceans to the west. Prince Rupert in BC does not really fit as it is protected from the interior cold by the Rockies. If Gulf Stream cuts out, I think you just call a 4degC drop in average winter English temps. [Quite nasty enough]. Also, cold spells might be a lot colder - Europe would be frigid. That assumes this does not trigger an Ice Age. While the depressions keep coming in from the West over the Atlantic the UK will not become like Siberia. Most of the South westerlies across UK are 'returning polar maritime' air streams that have come down from further North swung around a depression out in the Atlantic picking up water vapor then as cold fronts cross the UK dropping rain. These will always be warmer than easterlies as the winds have blown across the unfrozen Atlantic on the way to UK. However, if the Ferrel cells move South as the heating at the equator reduces the size of the Hadley cells and the Tropopause drops at the pole possibly also affected by UV reduction/ozone effects, then the UK may be in a North West wind that has not had a long sea track to warm and will be cooler and drier. As you say mainland Europe would become very cold. Add to this the effect of the AMOC slowing so what sea track the North westerlies have is colder - the UK climate would become quite unpleasant. |
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Post by Ratty on Oct 3, 2015 12:10:23 GMT
Bearing in mind the average temp for january in oxford is between 1 and 7 degrees celcius (i imagine that is a night and day average) It wouldnt take much of a drop to greatly increase the amount of ice/snow we experience. It wouldnt have to be -10 to effect our way of life!! But then during the colder years recently we had a number of mornings at -8 or so, and when it did snow, it would take 2-3 weeks to disappear. If it did become like Eastern Siberia here we would be f*****d f*****d Frigid? Flummoxed? Frightened? |
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Post by acidohm on Oct 3, 2015 14:09:48 GMT
All of those Ratty...I'm sure you can think of more!!!
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Post by acidohm on Oct 3, 2015 14:13:43 GMT
[So England might begin to feel like the eastern Siberian coast at the similar latitude.] Not really. For a good analogy, you need to look at places with large oceans to the west. Prince Rupert in BC does not really fit as it is protected from the interior cold by the Rockies. If Gulf Stream cuts out, I think you just call a 4degC drop in average winter English temps. [Quite nasty enough]. Also, cold spells might be a lot colder - Europe would be frigid. That assumes this does not trigger an Ice Age. While the depressions keep coming in from the West over the Atlantic the UK will not become like Siberia. Most of the South westerlies across UK are 'returning polar maritime' air streams that have come down from further North swung around a depression out in the Atlantic picking up water vapor then as cold fronts cross the UK dropping rain. These will always be warmer than easterlies as the winds have blown across the unfrozen Atlantic on the way to UK. However, if the Ferrel cells move South as the heating at the equator reduces the size of the Hadley cells and the Tropopause drops at the pole possibly also affected by UV reduction/ozone effects, then the UK may be in a North West wind that has not had a long sea track to warm and will be cooler and drier. As you say mainland Europe would become very cold. Add to this the effect of the AMOC slowing so what sea track the North westerlies have is colder - the UK climate would become quite unpleasant. Good analysis 7Nautonnier. The Ferrel cell moving south is a researched effect of reduced solar activity and is what I was maybe expecting to see. The AMOC is however, as far as I can tell, unproven to be an effect of reduced solar activity, but likely the cause of a cold winter here....if that is what happens...! m.phys.org/news/2015-07-sun-greenland-temperatures.html something at least on how solar activity may effect amoc.....but generally this seems a little 'muddled up'?? hockeyschtick.blogspot.hr/2014/06/new-paper-finds-solar-activity-explains.html?m=1This again talks about TSI varying over time? Not specific enough really.... tallbloke.wordpress.com/2015/03/24/much-alarmist-ado-about-amoc-and-the-subpolar-gyre-collapsing/This thread has a handle on it....Including post from someone involved with the RAPID program who is not a fan of agw. Generally, thoughts head to wind as driver of amoc, which is potentially solar cycle affected..... www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1918.htmApparently the Russians think the west is hiding the truth re:brutal winter coming... www.bitsofscience.org/no-more-horror-winters-europe-winter-forecasts-4668/Which obv can't be true... |
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anse
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 62
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Post by anse on Oct 4, 2015 21:22:41 GMT
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