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Post by acidohm on Nov 28, 2015 19:57:10 GMT
Generally when surfing the net, i notice people are referring to the current ssta in the pacific as 'monster' and 'record breaking' El Nino conditions and compare this to the '97 event... Firstly, here is a comparison of '97 v '15 via the ONI. clearly, although the '15 event started off strong off the back of '14 warming, it hasnt progressed in the same way as '97 and indeed now lags somewhat... Secondly, the CFS.v2 ensemble mean that NOAA etc uses is now predicting an imminent decline, although this has yet to manifest itself in any record... Although if it does....i think it'll be here. This has become one of my favorite graphs, by showing the anomaly from the last month, it really shows how recent changes have occured and where... So, the biggest question now is......when will Nina occur and how strong will THAT event be?? (some forecast suggest by july 2016 and about 1.5 celcius below av...)
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 29, 2015 5:28:52 GMT
When have we had a strong La Nina with a cold Atlantic??? Or negative PDO and negative AMO??? From what I can tell, it seems 1966-76 or so was the last period they were both negative. This came out before the 2009-10 time frame I think and has been posted somewhere here before. icecap.us/images/uploads/THE_GREAT_PACIFIC_CLIMATE_SHIFT_II.pdfHere is a listing of El Nino and La Nina years ranked by strength. ggweather.com/enso/oni.htmI don't see a historical strong La Nina in conjunction with a negative PDO and AMO. There are some weak ones ... so we may be in new territory here (measured that is). Assuming the PDO does go negative as Astromet has forecast.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 29, 2015 18:19:38 GMT
The answer is probably next year and we have no idea how strong it will be. Joe Bastardi is forecasting a significant drop and stronger than previous La Nina's I would prefer to see it warm but it seems like Theodore and Joe are in agreement. I would think that this is the reason for the extra pressure on Paris COP. If they do not crack the money and power grabbing treaties now, they will have missed. They are acting just like a salesman being shown the door. Do not think that the politicians and their supporting climate 'scientist' acolytes believe that things are going to be warmer; I think they know that it won't, but they have to get this scam sold before it does.
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 30, 2015 19:36:33 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2016 18:52:08 GMT
Looks to be more and more of a sure thing Hard to say. The reliability of forecasts of El Nino and La Nina is not better than 50-50.
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Post by graywolf on Feb 12, 2016 21:46:11 GMT
I'm looking to what we have seen since the turn of the century to base my 'guestimate' of how things pan out? The past two Nina's has been the warmest recorded and we have also seen some long neutral stretches? This nino has been trying to spend itself since 2010 but the Trades kept squishing it back west each time, even this time it hasn't managed to spend itself completely ? With the addition of N.Hemisphere summer warming i think we'll not see the Nino clock out before the cooldown stops and we see another rise above neutral in Oct. i'm not saying nino but I do not see a Nina quite yet? And Jan's PDO has it on the up again? ( research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest ) now entering its 3rd year of straight positves? If anything signals a wish no to 'nina' it's a strong PDO positive???
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 12, 2016 22:07:02 GMT
I'm looking to what we have seen since the turn of the century to base my 'guestimate' of how things pan out? The past two Nina's has been the warmest recorded and we have also seen some long neutral stretches? This nino has been trying to spend itself since 2010 but the Trades kept squishing it back west each time, even this time it hasn't managed to spend itself completely ? With the addition of N.Hemisphere summer warming i think we'll not see the Nino clock out before the cooldown stops and we see another rise above neutral in Oct. i'm not saying nino but I do not see a Nina quite yet? And Jan's PDO has it on the up again? ( research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest ) now entering its 3rd year of straight positves? If anything signals a wish no to 'nina' it's a strong PDO positive??? The actual time frame that we have recorded/understanding (somewhat) of the Pacific and its cycles is so short that it is hard to determine much of anything from past cycles. Sure, there have been reconstructions, but they do not appear to be very robust. Has the PDO hit bottom, and is now rising? Very possible. In the recent past there have been short excursions to the upside and downside during the phases. Is this a common deviation? Beats me, as once again, to short of a period of actual knowledge to say much of anything. We all know that the driver of ocean temp is SW radiation. Long wave doesn't have the ability to do much of anything in regards to water. Can't penetrate. With the clearing atmosphere since the mid 90's, one would expect the oceans to warm. The actual overall warming of the oceans is not nearly as robust as one would have expected with the lowering of clouds counts and the clearing of the atmosphere allowing more SW radiation to be absorbed by the oceans. To me, it appears a see saw. The earth is not warming, the oceans are not responding as expected. Yes, GCM's indicate the earth should be warming, but it looks more of a dispersal of temperature, rather than actual warming overall. With that said, there is a lack of knowledge of long term ocean currents. Models made, but not based on sound observation, a lot of I "Think" this is what may have happened. The truth is.........we just don't know! What we DO know is there seems to be an approx 1,000 year cycle to currents. This is based on previous cycles of warmth. But were the currents, in fact, the cause of said warmth? We know the MWP was world wide. Yes, much to the consternation of some, but the paleo evidence is stark and clear on this issue. We also know the RWP was world wide, again, much to the consternation of some. Does CO2 play a small part in all of this? Getting harder and harder to tell. Paleo data doesn't confirm that CO2 is the temperature control that some would like to wish. Sun strength is a crap shoot of data. Major area of concern in paleo data is resolution. WE now have good resolution for the past 1,000 years, but beyond that it gets really sketchy.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 19, 2016 19:46:35 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 19, 2016 20:18:00 GMT
IFF we get a La Nina at the end of this year running into next, then 2017 will be seen as a cooling year and Theo can take a well earned bow. Also IFF La Nina _AND_ PDO/AMO stay negative _AND_ the sun continues quiescent as it did for the long time between SC23 and SC24, we could be in for interesting times ahead.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 19, 2016 21:18:53 GMT
In comparison to historical El Ninos, the placement of this one in relation to the strength of the solar cycle would be the 1972-73 El Nino. That was a small cycle embedded between two sets of strong cycles in the 100 years since 1900. That El Nino, coming at the end of weak SC 19 (comparable to our current placement past the high point of SC 24), had a max deviation of 1.9 and lasted for 11 months. However, the La Nina (or two?) following had a double minimum of -1.9 and -1.6 and lasted for 34 months ... the longest that I see in the record. A replay of that event would take us to mid-late 2018 (sound familiar). Try that on for size and they may actually be very optimistic ... on the warm side that is. How much heat could the oceans shed in that period?
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Post by AstroMet on Feb 19, 2016 21:34:39 GMT
IFF we get a La Nina at the end of this year running into next, then 2017 will be seen as a cooling year and Theo can take a well earned bow. Also IFF La Nina _AND_ PDO/AMO stay negative _AND_ the sun continues quiescent as it did for the long time between SC23 and SC24, we could be in for interesting times ahead. What is going to happen is this Nautannier, For the third straight year, there will have been no 'monster,' or 'super' or 'major' El Nino, as I have forecasted and consistently repeated over and over again. Solar year 2016 will see more extremes of weather, in that we will see warmer than normal, and colder than normal temperature variations, as well as continued drought in California, as the transition from solar-forced global warming to solar-forced global cooling. Then, in late 2016, we will see those cooler waters increase, but it will not be a La Nina. Rather, it is simply the effect of the near-quiescent Sun and modulation of the planets. Still, what NOAA and most climate centers will do is to interpret the cooling as La Nina, just like they've been doing with the warming being interpreted as El Nino. Over 2016, what will happen in the Pacific is that their models will indicate a cooling of sea surface temperatures and lower trop T. What is already happening in winter 2016, is that upper ocean heat anomalies should fall; however, as we approach the vernal equinox there will be still talk of El Nino, but the problem with that (other than there is NO El Nino this year) is that equatorial waters generally warm at the vernal equinox, and that confuses the computer models of those trying to forecast an ENSO. As many of you know, I have been forecasting the coming of global cooling for well over a decade to begin officially in 2017. We are nearing that time. This will be a mini ice age we are entering. Just as we head into the next decade, there will be a moderately strong El Nino in mid-2009 to 2020. That will be followed by a deep and strong La Nina in 2020-2021 that will be made worse by the quiescent Sun and the new climate regime of global cooling I have forecasted is just ahead. When it will be evident that global cooling is here, many who pushed the lie of 'man-made global warming' will attempt to say it is climate change due to CO2 emissions. Then, as we head into the mini ice age I forecasted for the 2020s, 2030s and 2040s, some of the AGW crowd will likely say that this 'climate change' was caused by by CO2 emissions. Of course, that is total bullshit, but again, the laws of physics, when it comes to the true climate will serve a dish of revenge to AGW propagandists and paid-off climate scientists and their media lackeys. It will be climate dish - served COLD.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 19, 2016 22:55:41 GMT
[ Snip ] How much heat could the oceans shed in that period? It will be massive, remember, it's ....
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Post by icefisher on Feb 20, 2016 4:32:26 GMT
I'm looking to what we have seen since the turn of the century to base my 'guestimate' of how things pan out? The past two Nina's has been the warmest recorded and we have also seen some long neutral stretches? This nino has been trying to spend itself since 2010 but the Trades kept squishing it back west each time, even this time it hasn't managed to spend itself completely ? With the addition of N.Hemisphere summer warming i think we'll not see the Nino clock out before the cooldown stops and we see another rise above neutral in Oct. i'm not saying nino but I do not see a Nina quite yet? And Jan's PDO has it on the up again? ( research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest ) now entering its 3rd year of straight positves? If anything signals a wish no to 'nina' it's a strong PDO positive??? Except that by the end of summer the "official" NOAA modeler prognosticators are favoring La Nina 5 to 1 over El Nino.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 20, 2016 5:29:10 GMT
[ Snip ] How much heat could the oceans shed in that period? It will be massive, remember, it's ....
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Post by douglavers on Mar 18, 2016 21:58:27 GMT
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