Temperature versus CO2. Since this is a primary part of the AGW thesis, I thought I'd compare what we have.
CO2 as reported at the Mauna Loa Observatory and UAH satellite Global temperature deviations as reported on
Dr. Roy's website.
For visual comparability I computed annual CO2 changes month by month (e.g. June 1980 minus June 1979),
which yields 1-Year monthly changes in CO2 concentrations for the time period 1978 to 2015.
I compared this to the UAH monthly global temperature deviation (deviation in degrees C from the 1981-2000
average) for the lower troposhere. See Chart 1 below.
Since these are not totally comparable, I created a new temperature series: Monthly annual UAH temperature
changes. Since I did not have the actual UAH temperatures, I substituted the following based on the logic that
the deviation in degrees C from the 1981-2000 average temperature for any two months allows me to calculate
an annual temperature change between any two months. Thus, if the deviation from the 1981-2000 avg. lower
tropsphere temperature for June 1980 is 0.4 C and the same for June 1979 is 0.3 C, then the annual monthly
temperature change for June 1979 to June 1980 is 0.1 C (time B minus time A). This makes the temperature
change series comparable to the CO2 change series. See Chart 2 below.
Observations: While overall UAH temperature changes (as measured by deviation from average) have been
upward, the monthly annual change in temperature has been declining since 1978. CO2 monthly annual
change, however, has increased since 1978.
CO2 change appears to lag temperature change in almost all cases regardless of which chart one looks at.
For example, the large increase in CO2 change in 1998 lags the temperature change in 1997. This relationship
does not appear to be as close in years after 1998 as it does in years before 1998. The largest annual spike in
the 1978-2015 temperature record (~1 C) leads the largest CO2 annual change (~2+ ppm) in 1997. Could that
be from anything other than the ocean?
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