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Post by acidohm on Jan 22, 2016 17:37:40 GMT
I must admit your blowing my mind with your recent output Mboy! Your way ahead of me on this one and I'm very much enjoying seeing your contributions. I really must read up on stadium wave theory....very interesting that you've found corellating information in the argo Data! Curry's article is on here somewhere ... I downloaded it. And I believe that Duwayne provided the link. As the current El Nino (or anomalous SST expression?) winds down we'll see what springs up in the Atlantic ... or not. The golden anchovy award goes to he or she (or it?) that can adequately explain it. I'll send a copy to your email address. Thx Missouriboy, appreciated! It is a very intriguing concept!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 23, 2016 18:20:04 GMT
I note that www.climate4you.com/ seems to have just published time series charts for 1955-2015 for all the oceans at depths of 0-100 m, 0-700 m & deeper. Obviously they are using Argo ... although I don't know where their pre-2004 data are coming from. I spot-checked the 2004-2015 changes by ocean and they seem to be in line with what I found, although they have combined the North and South Atlantic and Pacific. Kind of masks the N. Atlantic decline. Funny we haven't seen these before now. Suppose someone visits our little forum? Of course I'm just being silly ... it was on their schedule all along . Anyway, I applaud them for doing it ... they should really be up and honest and way out front on this one. Cause as the guys in the trenches ought to know (hint, hint) ... when things go to hell, it's their butts that are gonna get chewed up first. Just saying!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 25, 2016 1:38:47 GMT
Things appear to be changing. Are the ranks revolting? www.climate4you.com/In the diagrams below only originally (raw) AMO values is shown. As is seen from the annual diagram, the AMO index has been increasing since the beginning of the record in 1856, although with a clear about 60 yr long variation superimposed. Often AMO values are shown linearly detrended to remove the overall increase since 1856, to emphasise the apparent rhythmic 60 yr variation. This detrending is usually intended to remove the alleged influence of greenhouse gas-induced global warming from the analysis, believed to cause the overall increase. However, as is seen in the diagram below, the overall increase has taken place since at least 1856, long before the alleged strong influence of increasing atmospheric CO2 began around 1975 (IPCC 2007). Therefore the overall increase is likely to have another explanation; it may simply represent a natural recovery since the end of the previous cold period (the Little Ice Age). If so, the general AMO increase since 1856 may well represent part of a longer natural variation, to long to be fully represented by the AMO data series since 1856.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 25, 2016 2:37:13 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 25, 2016 19:41:22 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 15, 2016 21:48:40 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Feb 15, 2016 23:59:32 GMT
PDO - Already in cold phase
AMO - Turning Cold
TSI - Weakest sun for 200 yrs.
Betting against that trifecta over the next decade looks dodgy!
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Post by graywolf on Feb 16, 2016 17:17:21 GMT
Out of the 205 months since the start of 98' PDO has shown positive months 97 times. Of those 7 were 2.0 or greater as opposed to 5 instances of PDO negative months of 2.0 or more........ some PDO negative ( when compared to other phases in the record).
Since the early 80's folk have been logging AGW impacts on the PDO as general ocean warming makes negative PDO values less cold and increased neutral/positive values.....
It will be an entertainment to behold as the next 5 years roll out to the tune called above!!!
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Post by acidohm on Feb 16, 2016 18:04:00 GMT
Well yes!! Apart from a dying central NiNo, the oceans are roasting...... Missouriboy, would you say the warm patch off west coast Africa may be something along the lines of a stadium wave effect?? Sigurdur, the Arctic region has shed alot of heat in the last few months, kinda in line with the Nords record of 30% ice extent....
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 16, 2016 18:14:23 GMT
Well yes!! Apart from a dying central NiNo, the oceans are roasting...... Missouriboy, would you say the warm patch off west coast Africa may be something along the lines of a stadium wave effect?? Sigurdur, the Arctic region has shed alot of heat in the last few months, kinda in line with the Nords record of 30% ice extent.... Looking at that picture the North Atlantic Drift isn't there. Is it possible that the hot spot by Africa is caused by the southward branch of the Gulf Stream being more active as the water is not flowing to the NAD it has to go somewhere?
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Post by icefisher on Feb 16, 2016 18:19:20 GMT
Out of the 205 months since the start of 98' PDO has shown positive months 97 times. Of those 7 were 2.0 or greater as opposed to 5 instances of PDO negative months of 2.0 or more........ some PDO negative ( when compared to other phases in the record). Since the early 80's folk have been logging AGW impacts on the PDO as general ocean warming makes negative PDO values less cold and increased neutral/positive values..... It will be an entertainment to behold as the next 5 years roll out to the tune called above!!! I have no idea what you are talking about. AGW is removed from the index. Here is the description: Updated standardized values for the PDO index, derived as the leading PC of monthly SST anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean, poleward of 20N. The monthly mean global average SST anomalies are removed to separate this pattern of variability from any "global warming" signal that may be present in the data. So any remaining AGW signal would be AGW nobody is aware of, an error, or some other kind of natural variability in the index. . . .meaning of course what you are observing is either incompetence or its something else entirely.
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Post by acidohm on Feb 16, 2016 19:00:08 GMT
Marked on this image from earth site current er, currents in N Atlantic. The Gulf stream is getting strongly intersected by the lab current which looks to be pushing further south. Any North Atlantic drift is fractured and heading south east in cold waters, Further south, the current which supplies the Gulf of Mexico has backed on itself and consists of eddies up the coast of south America. The warm patch off Africa is pushing outwards from the centre.. Any warm'ists' out there should note, Greenland is currently frozen, therefore any cold, strong currents from this area cannot be attributed to a melting Greenland....
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 16, 2016 22:39:55 GMT
Marked on this image from earth site current er, currents in N Atlantic. The Gulf stream is getting strongly intersected by the lab current which looks to be pushing further south. Any North Atlantic drift is fractured and heading south east in cold waters, Further south, the current which supplies the Gulf of Mexico has backed on itself and consists of eddies up the coast of south America. The warm patch off Africa is pushing outwards from the centre.. Any warm'ists' out there should note, Greenland is currently frozen, therefore any cold, strong currents from this area cannot be attributed to a melting Greenland.... Nice drawing there Acidohm! I was just digesting an old presentation by Bob Tisdale aimed at countering the AGW arguments but providing his view of how ocean temperatures outside of the Eastern Pacific have risen after, and are the result of, past Nino events. Perhaps others here have seen it. I had long ago but had not digested it in detail. Whether you believe it or not, it is quite well done and it's worth reading. bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/the-manmade-global-warming-challenge.pdfFunny that you should mention that spot off of Africa. Bob's thesis is that leftover heat from a Nino is redistributed back, not only to the West Pacific via Rosby waves, but also into the Indian and Atlantic oceans (currents I assume?) where SST anomalies show a stepped progression of increasing heat after each previous major Nino. His description of the process of redistribution is somewhat thin, but he has a niffy little animation of what happened to that little spot off Africa after the 97-98 Nino. Worth looking at, as it becomes a larger heat anomaly feeding back into the sub-tropical gyre through the Caribbean. bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/east-indian-west-pacific-97-thru-012.gifThis of course was back when the AMO was warmer ... so it will be interesting to see what becomes of it this time. I also need to look at the 2009-10 SSTAs. I'm perplexed as to how Pacific Nino heat gets to the equatorial Atlantic with only a 6-mth lag. It would either need to go eastward around the very cold Drake Passage or it would have go westward through the Indian Ocean. The Nino wormhole.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 17, 2016 0:57:45 GMT
There is actually a pretty fast current from the Indian Ocean that goes around the tip of Africa. I don't remember the name of the current, but it is assuredly there.
That is the conveyor that takes the slosh to the Atlantic.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 17, 2016 1:00:49 GMT
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