Post by missouriboy on Aug 5, 2016 5:29:00 GMT
A GRAPHICAL PICTURE OF 100 YEARS OF HEAT MOVEMENTS ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN
Based on HADSST3
I have finally assembled HADSST3 5x5 degree SST deviation data for the entire world in monthly increments from 1900 to 2016.
HADSST3 was chosen because they claim there have been no adjustments or infilling to this data base. I cannot swear to that,
but I wanted a 'best possible' place to start and did not find anything better. Since these spread sheets can be slow, I have limited
my first perusal of the N. Pacific Ocean to three west-east 10-degree sections, running bank-to-bank at 5S-5N, 20-30 N and 40-50 N.
I wanted my own graphical picture of cyclical SST trends and magnitudes between the equator and the poles. For comparison, I
tallied data by ENSO accounting areas modifying where necessary. At 40-50 N, the boundary between Nino 3 and 3.4 was moved
westward to account for the westward drift of the coastline. I ALSO ADDED a new zone in the extreme west, which I am calling the
'warm pool' or west pool as the case may be. With these data, I should be able to discern how often Westcoast North American
blobs have occurred, for example. The following are a listing of these non-overlapping zones with longitude boundaries.
Warm Pool Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3
5S-5N (Equator) 230-200 W 200-170 W 170-120 W 120-90 W Zone 3 westward drift is due to continent coastal change.
20-30 North 250-200 W 200-170 W 170-140 W 140-110 W Warm Pool data extends further west at mid-latitude.
40-50 North 230-200 W 200-170 W 170-140 W 140-120 W
Background: While one may not be able to prove a direct link between solar activity and ocean heat or ENSO activity (the time-specific SST measurements
taken in the little ENSO boxes) as shown in other posts, some of us think that this is a wagerable statement (you choose the odds). Correlation
is not causation as they say, but the coincidences lead one to ponder. Based on previous graphs, it appears that declines in solar activity
are accompanied by equatorial SST declines. El Ninos appear to get smaller and further apart in these periods and a 10-Year running ENSO index
shows negative values. This is reversed during periods of greater solar activity. Whether by direct solar insolation, cloud cover (or lack
thereof) or other, there appears to be a relationship. And, of course, some believe it's geothermal related. If equatorial heat changes and
its circulation around the basin (forget the world for now) together with mechanisms such as ENSO are one driver of global climate, then
spatial SST changes at points around the basin should 'hint' at what's happening and where we're going. There is nothing extreme
or heretical in these statements I think. But as Calvin might have said ... 'keep that third eye on the lookout for a Papist.'
The Equator. As we've seen many times our data universe consists of "2 bumps and a hole" of about 100 years duration ... bordered by the
data dark ages prior to about 1920 ... and a new emerging hole (for the last 15 years) in our future? Overall, temperatures increased by about
0.8 C, rising faster during periods of higher solar activity and declining during our one documented period of lower solar activity. ENSO is
often described as a periodic change in the surface heat balance between the western and eastern parts of the basin along the equator ... usually
being much warmer in the western (tropical) warm pool and cooler in the east. Little seems to be said about the overall energy in the system
and how that changes. While this chart shows an overall temporal increase, it also seems to show an absolute temperature decline from 1950
to 1980 (the period of lower solar activity). All four ENSO recording boxes show at least some decline in this time period. This might be due to
upwelling, solar insulation, clouds or ... but it does decline. There are those that believe that vermin may have worked on data in the 1930s and 40s,
but I don't know. But one thing for sure. The slope of the areas since 1997 are starting to look very much like they did from 1948 to 1957. The
warm pool balance is holding for now, but the ENSO-MEI index and the central Pacific boxes have been pointing down for some time. Only a true
believer could look at that graph and get 'catastrophic global warming' out of it. The next four years should really provide a major hint as to where
this is all headed.
The ENSO-MEI Index is described as the first principal component of 6 primary variables that include SSTs, atmospheric pressure and
other factors. It is interesting that the downturn in this index in 1950 and 1997 coincide with the last solar cycle in each of two strong solar series
(numbers 23 and 18). Could there be a shift in solar spectrum occurring in each case? Can anyone reference a solar spectrum data set that might
support or contradict this?
The Higher Latitudes (40-50 N). At the north end, the story is similar, but the range in data values is greater. Overall temperature changed
by slightly more than 1 C over the 100-year period. The western warm pool off the east coast of Japan changed in great, undulating temperature
waves with about a 30 year period (trough to crest). During periods of higher solar activity, warm pool temperatures decline, but the temperature
of waters further east increase. This differs from the Equator, where all Nino regions seem to be in sync with the solar cycle rythem. While this
explanation is likely much too simplistic, it seems like warmer waters circulating northward along the east coast of Asia are replaced by cooler
waters as the warm wave moves east. This appears to be particularly evident in the 1930-50 period. East of 200 W, temps increase beyond the
first set of active solar cycles, cresting perhaps a full solar cycle past the ENSO index dropoff in 1948-49. These decline by about 0.7 C through
about 1987 before starting another increase.
Unlike the equator, the highest parts of these cycles occur in the 1950s and 60s, not beyond. In other words, temperature deviations of the
Pacific Ocean at 40-50 N east of 200 W have not increased according to HADSST3 since 1950. These data look like 'the blob' of 1997
was larger (deviation wise) than the current blob. Other high points in the extended Nino 3 region occur at semi-regular intervals along the time
series. Major spikes occur in 1945 and 1966. Mid-ocean temperature spikes occur between east-coast spikes.
Like the equatorial graph, indexes and temperatures have been declining since about 1997. This may appear as a pause, but individual elements
of this graph appear to be sliding down a statistical slope, very similar (?) to 1949. The question, of course, is ... where is the bottom.
In Between (20-30 N). The 20-30 N HADSST3 time series has characteristics between the equatorial and northern edges of the
N. Pacific sub-tropical gyre. Like the equator, this series shows a progressive increase in temperatures of about 0.8 C over the entire
100-year period although there is more of a distinct stair-step pattern than the shallow pattern at the equator. The first step of the
warm-pool increase is delayed versus the tropics and there is a longer, smoother decline that penetrates much of the second set of active
solar cycles. Like the northern time series, recording regions east of 200 W show larger increases and cyclic patterns that outperform
the warm pool in terms of time. Mid-ocean regions peak in the same years as the northern cycles. But absolute temperature changes
are higher in the 1990-2000 time period than in the 1950-70 time period. Both the equator and the mid-latitude zones show higher
temperatures toward the end of the time series, versus the northern areas that peaked some 30-40 years earlier. Like each of the other
cross sections, the mid-latitude areas are also declining since 1997.
Based on HADSST3
I have finally assembled HADSST3 5x5 degree SST deviation data for the entire world in monthly increments from 1900 to 2016.
HADSST3 was chosen because they claim there have been no adjustments or infilling to this data base. I cannot swear to that,
but I wanted a 'best possible' place to start and did not find anything better. Since these spread sheets can be slow, I have limited
my first perusal of the N. Pacific Ocean to three west-east 10-degree sections, running bank-to-bank at 5S-5N, 20-30 N and 40-50 N.
I wanted my own graphical picture of cyclical SST trends and magnitudes between the equator and the poles. For comparison, I
tallied data by ENSO accounting areas modifying where necessary. At 40-50 N, the boundary between Nino 3 and 3.4 was moved
westward to account for the westward drift of the coastline. I ALSO ADDED a new zone in the extreme west, which I am calling the
'warm pool' or west pool as the case may be. With these data, I should be able to discern how often Westcoast North American
blobs have occurred, for example. The following are a listing of these non-overlapping zones with longitude boundaries.
Warm Pool Nino 4 Nino 3.4 Nino 3
5S-5N (Equator) 230-200 W 200-170 W 170-120 W 120-90 W Zone 3 westward drift is due to continent coastal change.
20-30 North 250-200 W 200-170 W 170-140 W 140-110 W Warm Pool data extends further west at mid-latitude.
40-50 North 230-200 W 200-170 W 170-140 W 140-120 W
Background: While one may not be able to prove a direct link between solar activity and ocean heat or ENSO activity (the time-specific SST measurements
taken in the little ENSO boxes) as shown in other posts, some of us think that this is a wagerable statement (you choose the odds). Correlation
is not causation as they say, but the coincidences lead one to ponder. Based on previous graphs, it appears that declines in solar activity
are accompanied by equatorial SST declines. El Ninos appear to get smaller and further apart in these periods and a 10-Year running ENSO index
shows negative values. This is reversed during periods of greater solar activity. Whether by direct solar insolation, cloud cover (or lack
thereof) or other, there appears to be a relationship. And, of course, some believe it's geothermal related. If equatorial heat changes and
its circulation around the basin (forget the world for now) together with mechanisms such as ENSO are one driver of global climate, then
spatial SST changes at points around the basin should 'hint' at what's happening and where we're going. There is nothing extreme
or heretical in these statements I think. But as Calvin might have said ... 'keep that third eye on the lookout for a Papist.'
The Equator. As we've seen many times our data universe consists of "2 bumps and a hole" of about 100 years duration ... bordered by the
data dark ages prior to about 1920 ... and a new emerging hole (for the last 15 years) in our future? Overall, temperatures increased by about
0.8 C, rising faster during periods of higher solar activity and declining during our one documented period of lower solar activity. ENSO is
often described as a periodic change in the surface heat balance between the western and eastern parts of the basin along the equator ... usually
being much warmer in the western (tropical) warm pool and cooler in the east. Little seems to be said about the overall energy in the system
and how that changes. While this chart shows an overall temporal increase, it also seems to show an absolute temperature decline from 1950
to 1980 (the period of lower solar activity). All four ENSO recording boxes show at least some decline in this time period. This might be due to
upwelling, solar insulation, clouds or ... but it does decline. There are those that believe that vermin may have worked on data in the 1930s and 40s,
but I don't know. But one thing for sure. The slope of the areas since 1997 are starting to look very much like they did from 1948 to 1957. The
warm pool balance is holding for now, but the ENSO-MEI index and the central Pacific boxes have been pointing down for some time. Only a true
believer could look at that graph and get 'catastrophic global warming' out of it. The next four years should really provide a major hint as to where
this is all headed.
The ENSO-MEI Index is described as the first principal component of 6 primary variables that include SSTs, atmospheric pressure and
other factors. It is interesting that the downturn in this index in 1950 and 1997 coincide with the last solar cycle in each of two strong solar series
(numbers 23 and 18). Could there be a shift in solar spectrum occurring in each case? Can anyone reference a solar spectrum data set that might
support or contradict this?
The Higher Latitudes (40-50 N). At the north end, the story is similar, but the range in data values is greater. Overall temperature changed
by slightly more than 1 C over the 100-year period. The western warm pool off the east coast of Japan changed in great, undulating temperature
waves with about a 30 year period (trough to crest). During periods of higher solar activity, warm pool temperatures decline, but the temperature
of waters further east increase. This differs from the Equator, where all Nino regions seem to be in sync with the solar cycle rythem. While this
explanation is likely much too simplistic, it seems like warmer waters circulating northward along the east coast of Asia are replaced by cooler
waters as the warm wave moves east. This appears to be particularly evident in the 1930-50 period. East of 200 W, temps increase beyond the
first set of active solar cycles, cresting perhaps a full solar cycle past the ENSO index dropoff in 1948-49. These decline by about 0.7 C through
about 1987 before starting another increase.
Unlike the equator, the highest parts of these cycles occur in the 1950s and 60s, not beyond. In other words, temperature deviations of the
Pacific Ocean at 40-50 N east of 200 W have not increased according to HADSST3 since 1950. These data look like 'the blob' of 1997
was larger (deviation wise) than the current blob. Other high points in the extended Nino 3 region occur at semi-regular intervals along the time
series. Major spikes occur in 1945 and 1966. Mid-ocean temperature spikes occur between east-coast spikes.
Like the equatorial graph, indexes and temperatures have been declining since about 1997. This may appear as a pause, but individual elements
of this graph appear to be sliding down a statistical slope, very similar (?) to 1949. The question, of course, is ... where is the bottom.
In Between (20-30 N). The 20-30 N HADSST3 time series has characteristics between the equatorial and northern edges of the
N. Pacific sub-tropical gyre. Like the equator, this series shows a progressive increase in temperatures of about 0.8 C over the entire
100-year period although there is more of a distinct stair-step pattern than the shallow pattern at the equator. The first step of the
warm-pool increase is delayed versus the tropics and there is a longer, smoother decline that penetrates much of the second set of active
solar cycles. Like the northern time series, recording regions east of 200 W show larger increases and cyclic patterns that outperform
the warm pool in terms of time. Mid-ocean regions peak in the same years as the northern cycles. But absolute temperature changes
are higher in the 1990-2000 time period than in the 1950-70 time period. Both the equator and the mid-latitude zones show higher
temperatures toward the end of the time series, versus the northern areas that peaked some 30-40 years earlier. Like each of the other
cross sections, the mid-latitude areas are also declining since 1997.