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Post by missouriboy on Dec 12, 2017 4:17:05 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Dec 12, 2017 5:01:17 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 12, 2017 14:47:21 GMT
One year ago ... I was toasting in the Yucatan and missed it. I hate to fall back on old Hollywood film clips ... but perhaps one final charge against the unscientific forces of darkness (w/Michael Mann as the Mahdi). www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5e1L5ocXUw
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 13, 2017 23:22:56 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Dec 14, 2017 4:00:59 GMT
Comment from a pro AGW acquaintance I received today.
"Sorry also that you persist with your strange beliefs on Global Warming. You do remind me of the Black Knight in the Monty Python "Holy Grail" film."
I refrained from responding, although I was tempted to say; "In 20 years' time, the idea that a trace essential gas controls the weather systems will seem absolutely bizarre".
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Post by Ratty on Dec 14, 2017 6:13:34 GMT
Comment from a pro AGW acquaintance I received today. "Sorry also that you persist with your strange beliefs on Global Warming. You do remind me of the Black Knight in the Monty Python "Holy Grail" film." I refrained from responding, although I was tempted to say; "In 20 years' time, the idea that a trace essential gas controls the weather systems will seem absolutely bizarre". I have acquaintances like that, Doug, I persevere till they say stop. then I try one more time. It's lonely up here ....
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 14, 2017 13:31:03 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 14, 2017 13:47:54 GMT
The answer to the question is that scientists' careers and grants depend on sufficient numbers of funding politicians believing it to be true. All of a sudden politicians will realize that there is no money and power in 'global warming/climate change' and the money trough will be withdrawn. The AGW theory will go into the Phlogiston/Piltdown Man box of abject science failures. If they are lucky the snowflake generation will not notice as they are so poorly educated; otherwise some 'scientists' could be tarred and feathered or worse.
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Post by Ratty on Dec 14, 2017 22:25:24 GMT
" However, the science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report." Does AR5 say that?
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 15, 2017 1:45:28 GMT
Comment from a pro AGW acquaintance I received today. "Sorry also that you persist with your strange beliefs on Global Warming. You do remind me of the Black Knight in the Monty Python "Holy Grail" film." I refrained from responding, although I was tempted to say; "In 20 years' time, the idea that a trace essential gas controls the weather systems will seem absolutely bizarre". I have acquaintances like that, Doug, I persevere till they say stop. then I try one more time. It's lonely up here .... Makes you feel positively uncircumcised doesn't it?
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 15, 2017 2:40:45 GMT
" However, the science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report." Does AR5 say that? NO NO
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Post by Ratty on Dec 15, 2017 3:44:48 GMT
I have acquaintances like that, Doug, I persevere till they say stop. then I try one more time. It's lonely up here .... Makes you feel positively uncircumcised doesn't it? No. I keep an Israeli pilot's survival kit in my cupboard.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 15, 2017 19:34:15 GMT
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0154.1The western United States was affected by several megadroughts during the last 1200 years, most prominently during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 800 to 1300 CE). A null hypothesis is developed to test the possibility that, given a sufficiently long period of time, these events are inevitable and occur purely as a consequence of internal climate variability. The null distribution of this hypothesis is populated by a linear inverse model (LIM) constructed from global sea surface temperature anomalies and self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index data for North America. Despite being trained only on seasonal data from the late twentieth century, the LIM produces megadroughts that are comparable in their duration, spatial scale, and magnitude to the most severe events of the last 12 centuries. The null hypothesis therefore cannot be rejected with much confidence when considering these features of megadrought, meaning that similar events are possible today, even without any changes to boundary conditions. In contrast, the observed clustering of megadroughts in the MCA, as well as the change in mean hydroclimate between the MCA and the 1500–2000 period, are more likely to have been caused by either external forcing or by internal climate variability not well sampled during the latter half of the twentieth century. Finally, the results demonstrate that the LIM is a viable tool for determining whether paleoclimate reconstructions events should be ascribed to external forcings or to “out of sample” climate mechanisms, or if they are consistent with the variability observed during the recent period.
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 16, 2017 18:46:59 GMT
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Post by douglavers on Dec 16, 2017 20:14:37 GMT
"However, the science on the human contribution to modern warming is quite clear. Humans emissions and activities have caused around 100% of the warming observed since 1950, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) fifth assessment report."
Even though ! was quite young [comparatively] at the time, I distinctly remember a period in the late 60s/early 70s when "scientists" were worried we were about to plunge into a new ice age.
Since atmospheric absorption by CO2 is now essentially saturated, and has been for some time, I cannot see how the gas can be making much difference.
Not to mention that in geological history, there are periods when ice ages occurred with CO2 vastly higher than today's approx 400 ppm.
Suggests unsettled science to me!!
Also, the current rate of planetary temperature decline might lead to us passing through the 30 year running average sometime in 2018.
That really would be hard to explain.
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