Fred. You're literature review is excellent. I like and will use. I remember speculation on just such origins back in my college days. Exciting times if your butt isn't strapped into a CO2 dune buggy. Perhaps we can have a contest to name it. BUTSHE - Big Underwater Tropical Seas Heating Event? Or you could rearrange to Big Tropical Under Sea Heating Event (BTUSHE). That might be Bary's offspring.
I ran a quick Argo SST series for Jan, Fe and Mar, 2015 covering 10N to 10S from 100E to 140W. (1st set of 3 maps) There does appear to be a sharp emergence of positive anomalies for the period (cold to the west). You cannot see a plume in vertical cross-sections but there could be many reasons for that, including I cannot run anomalies for the vertical sections without exporting and manually calculating.
And then I remembered that there is more than one way to skin a rat (oops, I mean cat Ratty) ... and I extracted planar SSTs for different depth sections for Mar, 2015. And presto, you can see the same thing at 100-300 meters, 300-500 meters and 500-1000 meters (2nd set of 3 maps).
Suggests that there is no link between CO2 and the Nino family?
EXCEPTIONALLY strong El Nino events may have contributed to the downfall of two early civilisations in Peru, according to American researchers. El Nino is the name given to a cyclical change in the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere over a large part of the south Pacific.
Michael Moseley, an anthropologist at the University of Florida in Gainesville, has consulted historical records in Peru. He says that severe flooding devastated coastal cities around AD 600 and AD 1100.
The evidence that this flooding was associated with strong El Nino events comes from ice cores taken from a glacier about 1000 kilometres to the southwest of the afflicted cities. The cores indicate that the Andes suffered unusually severe droughts at around AD 600 and AD 1100. Normal El Nino events are known to produce droughts in the highlands, although these are much shorter than the two on record.
Researchers stress that the link between climate and the collapse of ancient cultures in Peru is tentative. The ice cores that have been studied do not record directly either coastal climate or El Nino events.
The ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This means the chance of a La Niña forming in late 2017 is around 50%; twice the normal likelihood.
In the last fortnight, cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific has stalled, however climate models indicate further cooling is likely in the coming months. Atmospheric indicators are also showing a slight shift towards a weak La Niña-like state.
A La Niña WATCH is not a guarantee that La Niña will occur; it is an indication that some typical precursors of an event are in place. Climate models suggest that if an event does occur this year, it is likely to be weak and short-lived.
Bureau climatologists will continue to closely monitor developments in the tropical Pacific over the next fortnight. Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up, linked below.
Dopeler Effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.
Something Is Happening in the Heart of the Tropical Oceans (Paradigms may only be skin deep)
ARGO data Anomaly From Monthly Mean Temperatures -Jan. 2004 to Aug. 2017 (last month available) Upper left: 20S-20N Lat. 120E-360E Long. Pacific-Atlantic 0-100 meters depth Upper right: 20S-20N Lat. 360E-120E Long. Indian 0-100 meters depth Lower left: 20S-20N Lat. 120E-360E Long. Pacific-Atlantic 100-300 meters depth Lower right: 20S-20N Lat. 360E-120E Long. Indian 100-300 meters depth