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Post by sigurdur on Nov 20, 2017 6:40:21 GMT
Wowsa. If that sentence prevails, imagine the fear instilled into climate Scientists! We were all supposed to be starving by now and no snow and NYC under water!
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 20, 2017 11:10:57 GMT
a search showed that this comes from gsa.confex.com/gsa/2017AM/webprogram/Paper300667.html " A FIVE YEAR FORECAST FOR INCREASED GLOBAL SEISMIC HAZARD (Invited Presentation)
BILHAM, Roger, Geological Sciences and CIRES, University of Colorado at Boulder, UCB 399, Boulder, CO 80309-0399 and BENthingy, Rebecca, Department of Geosciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812, Roger.Bilham@colorado.edu
On five occasions in the past century a 25-30% increase in annual numbers of Mw≥7 earthquakes has coincided with a slowing in the mean rotation velocity of the Earth, with a corresponding decrease at times when the length-of-day (LoD) is short. The correlation between Earth's angular deceleration (d[LoD]/dt) and global seismic productivity is yet more striking, and can be shown to precede seismicity by 5-6 years, permitting societies at risk from earthquakes an unexpected glimpse of future seismic hazard. The cause of Earth's variable rotation is the exchange of angular momentum between the solid and fluid Earth (atmospheres, oceans and outer core). Maximum LoD is preceded by an angular deceleration of the Earth by 6-8 years corresponding to a π/4 phase lag of the 24-33 year peak-to-peak period of multidecadal oscillations of Earth's rotation. We show delayed global seismic productivity is most pronounced at equatorial latitudes 10°N-30°S. Two mechanisms may be responsible: (1) decreased oblateness (a reduction in J2) that attends a slowing of Earth's rotation and (2) lithospheric overshoot, a process whereby the equatorial lithosphere sluggishly overrides the decelerating underlying mantle westward, much as a loose cannon slides upon the deck of a rolling ship. The observed relationship is unable to indicate precisely when and where these future earthquakes will occur, although we note that most of the additional Mw>7 earthquakes have historically occurred near the equator in the West and East Indies. A striking example is that since 1900 more than 80% of all M≥7 earthquakes on the eastern Caribbean plate boundary have occurred 5 years following a maximum deceleration (including the 2010 Haiti earthquake). Calculations show the asthenosphere to have an appropriate viscosity to account for the delay between deceleration and subduction zone seismicity, however, a geodetic test of the anticipated westward overshoot would be of utility. Whatever the mechanism, the 5-6 year advanced warning of increased seismic hazards afforded by the first derivative of the LoD is fortuitous, and has utility in disaster planning. The year 2017 marks six years following a deceleration episode that commenced in 2011, suggesting that the world has now entered a period of enhanced global seismic productivity with a duration of at least five years."My highlight A planet apparently spinning in 'free fall' to quote the anti-barycenter group would not have any such instability caused by 'different rotation rates' as there is nothing to cause the changes, and the atmosphere is hardly enough to influence tectonic activity. However, a planet trying to follow the Sun as its orbit around the barycenter is altered by the position of Jupiter, Saturn and possibly Neptune and Uranus, would have its Length of Day (LOD) affected by inertia/momentum as its stable orbit was accelerated to a slightly different trajectory. The other body in the Solar system to be obviously affected by such changes would be the Sun. So some level of correlation between changes of the Sun's activity as its orbit around the barycenter alters and Earth LOD changes would be expected: they both have the same cause.
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Post by Ratty on Nov 20, 2017 12:47:06 GMT
Where is Andrew?
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 20, 2017 13:03:57 GMT
Actually it used to be Pidgey that expounded on LOD
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Post by acidohm on Nov 20, 2017 19:03:40 GMT
No-one has completed the 'B' word so he's not been summoned...
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 20, 2017 19:35:37 GMT
No-one has completed the 'B' word so he's not been summoned... Since I’m new here, would I be forgiven if I accidentally said the B word?
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Post by acidohm on Nov 20, 2017 21:56:05 GMT
No-one has completed the 'B' word so he's not been summoned... Since I’m new here, would I be forgiven if I accidentally said the B word? Don't know.....try it!!! 🤣
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 20, 2017 22:29:00 GMT
Since I’m new here, would I be forgiven if I accidentally said the B word? Don't know.....try it!!! 🤣 Does it have something to do with the gravitational center of the solar system???
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Post by Ratty on Nov 20, 2017 23:03:21 GMT
Don't know.....try it!!! 🤣 Does it have something to do with the gravitational center of the solar system??? We knew you were foxing!
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 21, 2017 3:03:52 GMT
Don't know.....try it!!! 🤣 Does it have something to do with the gravitational center of the solar system??? Technically the center of mass of the solar system
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 21, 2017 3:26:15 GMT
Does it have something to do with the gravitational center of the solar system??? Technically the center of mass of the solar system I was tip toeing around the “B” word but doesn't mass and gravity go hand in hand?
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Post by acidohm on Nov 21, 2017 5:59:17 GMT
Well yes, and when most of this mass is subject to laws of fluid dynamics....
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 21, 2017 15:31:06 GMT
There are many baryBarrycenters.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 23, 2017 15:21:03 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Nov 26, 2017 14:04:30 GMT
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