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Post by nautonnier on Aug 11, 2016 21:16:20 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 11, 2016 23:19:06 GMT
"Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, ...." A seventy percent chance of 12 to 17?
How do you spell gobbledygook?
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Post by douglavers on Aug 12, 2016 4:04:22 GMT
With difficulty, especially for us illiterate Australians!!
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Post by Ratty on Aug 12, 2016 5:37:24 GMT
With difficulty, especially for us illiterate Australians!! I looked it up ....
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 12, 2016 7:34:55 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 12, 2016 10:21:22 GMT
Spelled it correctly!
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 13, 2016 12:13:58 GMT
" Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, ...." A seventy percent chance of 12 to 17? How do you spell gobbledygook? I once had the pleasure of giving a talk to a group of forecasters in Boulder CO., on probabilities and how they had lost the plot :-) TO a weather man 50% chance is close on certainty, and too high a risk - like having 3 rounds in a revolver to play Russian roulette. But they regularly use probability maps and then talk about the probability of that map then move to Bayesian and their belief in the probability of that probability map
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Post by Ratty on Aug 13, 2016 21:58:01 GMT
I know exactly what you mean ........ I think.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 14, 2016 15:35:58 GMT
" Forecasters now expect a 70 percent chance of 12 to 17 named storms, ...." A seventy percent chance of 12 to 17? How do you spell gobbledygook? I once had the pleasure of giving a talk to a group of forecasters in Boulder CO., on probabilities and how they had lost the plot :-) TO a weather man 50% chance is close on certainty, and too high a risk - like having 3 rounds in a revolver to play Russian roulette. But they regularly use probability maps and then talk about the probability of that map then move to Bayesian and their belief in the probability of that probability map They probably do do that, Mr. Naut. That is, in all probability.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 14, 2016 22:14:32 GMT
But, what is the likelihood of a 50% chance of 12 to 17?
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Post by acidohm on Aug 15, 2016 9:25:00 GMT
100% chance of 6 to 8.5???
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 15, 2016 18:21:38 GMT
But, what is the likelihood of a 50% chance of 12 to 17? No you have to talk forecaster: "We have low confidence in the 30% likelihood of a 50% chance of 12 to 17 named storms"
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Post by Ratty on Aug 15, 2016 22:42:49 GMT
Naut, could you put that in a formula for me so it's easier to understand?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 17, 2016 10:59:39 GMT
Faites vos jeux mes amis! This looks like another fish storm - www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?5-daynl#contentsThere are people in many areas that would be somewhat bemused at people excitedly naming 'storms' with winds this low. I have lived in areas where the average wind was more than 30kts
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Post by Ratty on Aug 17, 2016 12:12:57 GMT
[ Snip ] I have lived in areas where the average wind was more than 30kts I believe I went there once on a holiday; the travel brochures said nothing about the wind ..... as I recall.
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