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Post by nautonnier on Aug 17, 2016 18:33:59 GMT
[ Snip ] I have lived in areas where the average wind was more than 30kts I believe I went there once on a holiday; the travel brochures said nothing about the wind ..... as I recall. You could always tell the cars driven by tourists. They had wrinkles in their car doors where they had failed to park into wind and the wind behind the car door had pulled the door out of their hands and slammed it all the way open through 180deg. You got used to changing down a gear to drive into wind. All trees and bushes were stunted at around 5ft then bent away from the ambient wind. I saw one neighbor open his garage door and the garage roof blew off. Both I and another neighbor had back windows blown out by opening the front door forgetting to shut other doors in the house to slow the 'draft'. It was a little 'breezy' there. When I first moved to Florida I had the pleasure of being under the 4 hurricanes of 2004 - immediately under one of them. The wind was up and howling at western Scotland levels - the sky was dark with clouds scudding past - rain was hammering across rather than down. Indeed it all looked very homely So I ventured out into it (as one does) to see how familiar it was - that is when I got the shock - winds (severe storm force 12) gloomy clouds and rain like that in Scotland mean a temperature of around 40f (5C) - in Florida the air temperature was around 90F! (32C)and the rain was warm. Talk about cognitive dissonance!
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 19, 2016 12:24:29 GMT
Fish Storm Fiona will be depressed on passing Bermuda... This will not stop the excited chalking up of another 'named storm' {sigh}
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 19, 2016 15:50:45 GMT
Got to keep the count up, so come November NHC can issue a press release saying, "it was worse than we thought."
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2016 0:25:40 GMT
Coriolis force has that effect. Remember the storm is not a point it is a set of storms in a whirling dervish dance with each other. The ones that are moving from South of the center to the East are accelerated by the Coriolis force and the storm cells to the North of the depression moving South and West of the center of rotation are slowed by the Coriolis force. This has the effect of steering the storms and absent any direction by troughs, ridges or ambient winds the storm center will curve to the North East and accelerate rapidly toward NW Europe and Scotland (hence my previous post )
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Post by Ratty on Aug 20, 2016 1:47:20 GMT
[ Snip ] I don't know why they think it will tack North? I think West. I think Washington (State) is safe Code. Unless you're away on holiday, you have nothing to worry about.
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Post by flearider on Aug 20, 2016 6:54:53 GMT
thats going no were near the usa.. it's to far out .. theres to much cooling comming of the southern states ..it will prob miss bermuda and head up and over past the uk ..
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Post by acidohm on Aug 20, 2016 9:49:37 GMT
It'll hit the warm plume from Europe next week and create a AGW blamed weather bomb 😲😲😲
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2016 18:47:48 GMT
Here are all the modeled tracks....
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Post by Ratty on Aug 20, 2016 23:13:29 GMT
Here are all the modeled tracks.... In that's what the models say, it will probably hit North Dakota.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 21, 2016 1:42:43 GMT
Yep. We are ready.
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Post by graywolf on Aug 25, 2016 15:04:56 GMT
Don't think my Sister picked the best time to visit Florida? She may be in for a rude awakening by Sunday Pm? The size of 99l must be of concern for all of Florida? Was 05' the last hit she took? the latest GFS runs Hermione from the southern tip of florida right up the centre to the panhandle..... Could be messy esp. with Louisiana still a mess? Oddly some models show a satellite storm split off Gaston and head right into the Carolina's around the time Hermione will be pounding Florida?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 25, 2016 16:21:26 GMT
Don't think my Sister picked the best time to visit Florida? She may be in for a rude awakening by Sunday Pm? The size of 99l must be of concern for all of Florida? Was 05' the last hit she took? the latest GFS runs Hermione from the southern tip of florida right up the centre to the panhandle..... Could be messy esp. with Louisiana still a mess? Oddly some models show a satellite storm split off Gaston and head right into the Carolina's around the time Hermione will be pounding Florida? It will miss Florida GW so she will have a great time.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 25, 2016 18:13:50 GMT
Don't think my Sister picked the best time to visit Florida? She may be in for a rude awakening by Sunday Pm? The size of 99l must be of concern for all of Florida? Was 05' the last hit she took? the latest GFS runs Hermione from the southern tip of florida right up the centre to the panhandle..... Could be messy esp. with Louisiana still a mess? Oddly some models show a satellite storm split off Gaston and head right into the Carolina's around the time Hermione will be pounding Florida? Florida _always_ has thunderstorms. It literally comes with the territory, in this case a relatively narrow peninsula sticking into warm seas. The air temperatures expected most days between June and November are low nineties Fahrenheit mid thirties Centigrade. Sea temperatures are from mid 70s to mid 80s Fahrenheit 25 - 30C. Every day sea breezes start from each coast and with no ambient wind meet in the middle over Orlando and there are thundershowers. If there is an ambient wind the thundershowers will be over one or the other coast or somewhere between. It is why it is called 'the wet season' in Florida. By wet it means wet a normal afternoon shower can be at a rate of 3" an hour or more. (Disney make a bomb selling plastic ponchos) If you are unlucky to be under the line of sea breeze thundershowers continual storm rain is not uncommon with quite entertaining lightning (killed a palm tree at the back of my house and a lot of electrics). All in all do not come to Florida if you dislike getting wet So what is a tropical storm to Central Florida? It gets as windy as the West coast of UK on a relatively normal but breezy day and it rains as much as it rains in central Florida on a relatively normal if rainy day. It is only really Cat 3 hurricanes where the storms get exciting. So a 'storm' running up the center of the peninsula will be mostly indistinguishable from normal days - except both sides may get wet. The North East quadrant is the really wet side. Don't expect any Floridians to show any excitement over rain though. As the center of the storm is thought to be over the peninsula it will be a wimp of a storm as there won't be the energy from the ocean to keep it going. I'll be there then so I'll tell you
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 25, 2016 18:19:05 GMT
Here are the guesses fetes vos jeux
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Post by Ratty on Aug 26, 2016 0:14:21 GMT
I'm still betting on North Dakota.
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