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Post by duwayne on Aug 25, 2016 17:10:59 GMT
My Global Warming prediction is for flat temperatures over the 2007 to 2037 period due to the cool Ocean Current phase offsetting any CO2 induced warming. Individual years will fluctuate up and down with ENSO.
This prediction is based on a continuation of the current growth of atmospheric CO2 and is subject to change due to unpredictable events such as a major meteorite strike, an extended major volcanic eruption or a significant “dimming of the sun”. Some posters have indicated they believe the sun’s activity is headed down and the earth will cool significantly but I don’t recall seeing any specific temperature predictions. Dr. Svalgaard recently predicted that Solar Cycle 25 will be like Cycle 24. My initial reaction is that his outlook for Cycle 25 seems reasonable. If Cycle 25 is like Cycle 24, I believe it would likely have less than a -0.2C degree effect on global temperatures which would not warrant an adjustment to my Global Warming prediction.
Any other opinions as to the size of Cycle 25 and its effect on global temperatures?
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 25, 2016 17:55:17 GMT
I agree with your analysis. The earth does not cool, nor warm dramatically during a short period of time. There is too much water, not only in the ocean, but in the atmosphere.
Long term, if the cycles continue to indicate decline, the temperature will potentially fall.
The thing that is missing in the AGW analysis is the effect of deep space. There are forces at work that are not yet recognized.
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Post by nonentropic on Aug 25, 2016 18:50:05 GMT
Well it has cooled dramatically in a ten year period so that is not entirely true Sig.
We just don't know enough.
My instinct is that the average temperature is not the correct metric to include in the thinking its the surface temperatures, so if an ocean current were to have a relatively thin veneer of warm or cold water on its surface global changes can happen. Witness El Nino/La Nina.
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Post by flearider on Aug 25, 2016 20:30:14 GMT
i'm saying 1-3deg c over the next 30 yrs .. between 10-15 yrs crop failure in canada and the eu ..followed by the usa .. 20-30 yrs millions dead.. new world order instated
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 25, 2016 21:04:55 GMT
My confidence in anyones ability to accurately predict the weather 7 days out is very low and it drops with every day past that. When we talk about months, years or decades it's really a crap shoot. There are too many moving pieces when dealing with our weather and climate.
With that being said we know there are multi-decadal oscillations, ENSO events, bond events etc. The AMO is probably due to flip flop from it's warmer phase to a colder one and the Sun is most likely going into an extended period of lower activity so I am in the cooling camp. I don't think it will be the next little ice age but I would expect winters similar to the ones we experienced in the 1970's or even colder.
While we are "guessing" put me down for a 1.0 -1.5 degree C drop over the next several decades. Probably some stress on worldwide crops etc but not catastrophic.
I hope.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 25, 2016 22:19:37 GMT
i'm saying 1-3deg c over the next 30 yrs .. between 10-15 yrs crop failure in canada and the eu ..followed by the usa .. 20-30 yrs millions dead.. new world order instated Well I'm glad to see that you're optimistic there Flea.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 26, 2016 0:43:41 GMT
i'm saying 1-3deg c over the next 30 yrs .. between 10-15 yrs crop failure in canada and the eu ..followed by the usa .. 20-30 yrs millions dead.. new world order instated Well I'm glad to see that you're optimistic there Flea. Take no notice: Flea's a scriptwriter for James Cameron's next blockbuster.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 26, 2016 5:21:45 GMT
Well I don't think we are being specific enough. 1-3 deg C over next 30 years. Obviously its a lot of cooling but is this a climate figure or is it a record cold year.
In that regard I am going out on a major limb here since I don't think we know enough about natural variation or man made variation for that matter to make accurate predictions. I will predict that within a decade of the record warmest decade (limited to occurring by 2022) we will see a decade that averages .21 to .35c cooler. If you want a more specific number then I would pick .24C. Thats based on the assumption that solar cycle 25 is the same size as solar cycle 24 and that we don't have a major volcanic eruption or a major asteroid or comet impact.
The reason I am using the record warmest decade is because my analysis is data generated from existing temperature data and this relationship appears to maybe have existed for the Dalton Minimum. . . .though the data is very sparse so I don't put much reliance on it. Its really hard to be specific on the date of cooling commencement because I think it has already occurred but is being masked by ocean continuing to warm seeking equilibrium with the surface temperature effects of the sun.
But its also the case that the UAH data shows a .25 degree warming average decade over average decade in their record. I favor zero warming from CO2. If I were to accept the one way glass potential of CO2, which I am not all that adverse to, I would change my guess to .2 degree C cooling. So while I am not sure of the components of Duwayne's analysis if he assumes .04 deg/decade warming from CO2 we would be on the same page with the rest.
I think .2deg cooling will be bad enough and I certainly hope that Flearider is wrong. BTW, CET shows 1.8 degrees warming (decade averages) over about 40 years from 1700 to 1740. 2/3rds of that warming was lost by the end of the Dalton Minimum and the modern warming for CET recorded a rebound of 1.8 deg C but it took 130 years. Unfortunately solar cycle data did not become available until solar cycle 1 that ran from 1755-1766 and that the Maunder Minimum ended around 1700. Unfortunately we were a bit slow in gathering solar data after Galileo got put under house arrest by the science is settled aholes.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 26, 2016 8:03:11 GMT
Well I don't think we are being specific enough. 1-3 deg C over next 30 years. Obviously its a lot of cooling but is this a climate figure or is it a record cold year. In that regard I am going out on a major limb here since I don't think we know enough about natural variation or man made variation for that matter to make accurate predictions. I will predict that within a decade of the record warmest decade (limited to occurring by 2022) we will see a decade that averages .21 to .35c cooler. If you want a more specific number then I would pick .24C. Thats based on the assumption that solar cycle 25 is the same size as solar cycle 24 and that we don't have a major volcanic eruption or a major asteroid or comet impact. The reason I am using the record warmest decade is because my analysis is data generated from existing temperature data and this relationship appears to maybe have existed for the Dalton Minimum. . . .though the data is very sparse so I don't put much reliance on it. Its really hard to be specific on the date of cooling commencement because I think it has already occurred but is being masked by ocean continuing to warm seeking equilibrium with the surface temperature effects of the sun. But its also the case that the UAH data shows a .25 degree warming average decade over average decade in their record. I favor zero warming from CO2. If I were to accept the one way glass potential of CO2, which I am not all that adverse to, I would change my guess to .2 degree C cooling. So while I am not sure of the components of Duwayne's analysis if he assumes .04 deg/decade warming from CO2 we would be on the same page with the rest. I think .2deg cooling will be bad enough and I certainly hope that Flearider is wrong. BTW, CET shows 1.8 degrees warming (decade averages) over about 40 years from 1700 to 1740. 2/3rds of that warming was lost by the end of the Dalton Minimum and the modern warming for CET recorded a rebound of 1.8 deg C but it took 130 years. Unfortunately solar cycle data did not become available until solar cycle 1 that ran from 1755-1766 and that the Maunder Minimum ended around 1700. Unfortunately we were a bit slow in gathering solar data after Galileo got put under house arrest by the science is settled aholes. Are you sure?
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Post by douglavers on Aug 26, 2016 11:59:18 GMT
{{Svensmark publishes: Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth’s cloud cover Anthony Watts / 17 hours ago August 25, 2016 From Denmark Technical University Solar activity has a direct impact on Earth’s cloud cover Solar variations affect the abundance of clouds in our atmosphere, a new study lead by DTU Space suggests. Large eruptions on the surface of the Sun can temporarily shield Earth from so-called cosmic rays which now appear to affect cloud formation. A team of scientists from the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space) and the Racah Institute of Physics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem has linked large solar eruptions to changes in Earth’s cloud cover in a study based on over 25 years of satellite observations.}}
I have just finished watching the attached video from WUWT. The corroborating scientific evidence is becoming hard to ignore.
This is Wegener all over again.
The saddest comment of all was Svensmark saying that his paper was rejected four times over sixteen months, for assorted reasons.
Political Correctness in all its forms has a great deal to answer for.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 26, 2016 12:17:35 GMT
I agree with your analysis. The earth does not cool, nor warm dramatically during a short period of time. There is too much water, not only in the ocean, but in the atmosphere. Long term, if the cycles continue to indicate decline, the temperature will potentially fall. The thing that is missing in the AGW analysis is the effect of deep space. There are forces at work that are not yet recognized. If you look at the annual cooling and warming cycles then unfortunately it does appear that cooling can happen quite fast. Warming has all sorts of feedbacks preventing it more evaporation and convection and the Stefan Boltzmann increase by the fourth power of its temperature. Cooling does not have many feedbacks stopping it. If Svensmark is correct ( wattsupwiththat.com/2016/08/25/svensmark-publishes-solar-activity-has-a-direct-impact-on-earths-cloud-cover/ ) then layers of cloud form and prevent sunlight from reaching the oceans. The ocean cooling will continue at its normal rate which can be judged by the cooling between summer and winter. Take that cooling rate and continue it for 24 months and see where you get. Obviously the rate will reduce as it gets colder but it is a lot faster than people seem to think. Then add in that the weather systems worldwide are due to the convective cells at the equator driving the circulation of warm air to the poles. If all that circulation slows down then the poles and the temperate zones adjoining them will get colder. Laurentide ice sheet reappears. I think it is all to do with cloudiness and albedo.
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 26, 2016 22:15:36 GMT
Actually, aggregate temps show very small deviation seasons and all. The O only time there is dramatic cooling is a Bond Event or a volcanic event.
Bond events are not understood as to cause.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 27, 2016 2:51:57 GMT
Most likely its going to be a lot worse than we thought!
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Post by duwayne on Aug 27, 2016 14:25:07 GMT
Here’s one way of arriving at my estimate of a less than 0.2C cooling effect from Cycle 24/25. Please note that I am looking at climate effects of 20 years or more, not shorter ENSO-type effects or even shorter 1 year effects. Here’s the plot of historical average annual sunspot Groups from Svalgaard, et al. By looking at the chart above, one can see that the Cycle 24/Cycle 25 sunspot activity if Cycle 25 is similar to Cycle 24 as Svalgaard predicts would mean that the solar activity over these 2 cycles would be about twice as high it was during the Dalton Minimum in the 1800-1825 period. How much cooling was there in 1800-1825? The global temperature numbers from that period are not known, but there is a good record of the Central England Temperatures and the temperatures do show similar warming to the Hadcrut global temperatures during the period they are available from 1850 –about 0.8C. Here is the Central England Temperature (CET) record. The temperature record clearly shows some cooling in the 1800-1825 Dalton Minimum period. But there are 3 similar cool periods in in the years before and after the Dalton Minimum period - the 1780’s, around 1840 and 1880’s. I’d encourage you to make your own guess as to how much of the cooling during the 25 or so years of the Dalton Minimum was actually caused by the less active sun. And then, if you believe Svalgaard's prediction, the Cycle 24/25 solar activity will likely be about twice that of the Dalton Minimum meaning there perhaps would be only half the Dalton Minimum cooling. But before you do that here is another factor worth noting. What was possibly the largest volcanic eruption in the last 2000 years occurred during the Dalton Minimum. Mt Tambora erupted and hurled some 10 cubic miles of material into the atmosphere in 1815, and 1816 was known as the “Year without a summer”. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1815_eruption_of_Mount_TamboraThere's little doubt that the coolest years during the Dalton Minimum were largely due to the Tambora eruption. My guess is that the Dalton Minimum had less than a 0.4C global cooling effect versus the average temperatures of the time averaged over 20 years and based on that, Cycle24/25 should have less than half that effect or less than 0.2C.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 27, 2016 15:58:12 GMT
I like your analysis Duwayne,thanks for your time on that.
Is it worth noting the variation in any temp drop around the globe! For whatever reason N Europe appears to bear some of the brunt of solar cooling....
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