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Post by Ratty on Oct 4, 2016 23:04:46 GMT
The sound of a penny dropping?
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Post by Ratty on Dec 15, 2017 12:27:37 GMT
Study: finds a solar amplification mechanism by which solar activity & cosmic rays control climateAbstractThe Sun's contribution to climate variations was highly questioned recently. In this paper we show that bi-decadal variability of solar magnetic field, modulating the intensity of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) at the outer boundary of heliosphere, could be easily tracked down to the Earth's surface. The mediator of this influence is the lower stratospheric ozone, while the mechanism of signal translation consists of: (i) GCR impact on the lower stratospheric ozone balance; (ii) modulation of temperature and humidity near the tropopause by the ozone variations; (iii) increase or decrease of the greenhouse effect, depending on the sign of the humidity changes. The efficiency of such a mechanism depends critically on the level of maximum secondary ionisation created by GCR (i.e. the Pfotzer maximum) – determined in turn by heterogeneous Earth's magnetic field. Thus, the positioning of the Pfotzer max in the driest lowermost stratosphere favours autocatalytic ozone production in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere (NH), while in the SH– no suitable conditions for activation of this mechanism exist. Consequently, the geomagnetic modulation of precipitating energetic particles – heterogeneously distributed over the globe – is imprinted on the relation between ozone and humidity in the lower stratosphere (LS). The applied test for causality reveals that during the examined period 1957–2012 there are two main centres of action in the winter NH, with tight and almost stationary winter ozone control on the near tropopause humidity. Being indirectly influenced by the solar protons, the variability of the SH lower stratospheric ozone, however, is much weaker. As a consequence, the causality test detects that the ozone dominates in the interplay with ULTS humidity only in the summer extra-tropics.
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Post by blustnmtn on Dec 15, 2017 12:59:00 GMT
Study: finds a solar amplification mechanism by which solar activity & cosmic rays control climateAbstractThe Sun's contribution to climate variations was highly questioned recently. In this paper we show that bi-decadal variability of solar magnetic field, modulating the intensity of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) at the outer boundary of heliosphere, could be easily tracked down to the Earth's surface. The mediator of this influence is the lower stratospheric ozone, while the mechanism of signal translation consists of: (i) GCR impact on the lower stratospheric ozone balance; (ii) modulation of temperature and humidity near the tropopause by the ozone variations; (iii) increase or decrease of the greenhouse effect, depending on the sign of the humidity changes. The efficiency of such a mechanism depends critically on the level of maximum secondary ionisation created by GCR (i.e. the Pfotzer maximum) – determined in turn by heterogeneous Earth's magnetic field. Thus, the positioning of the Pfotzer max in the driest lowermost stratosphere favours autocatalytic ozone production in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere (NH), while in the SH– no suitable conditions for activation of this mechanism exist. Consequently, the geomagnetic modulation of precipitating energetic particles – heterogeneously distributed over the globe – is imprinted on the relation between ozone and humidity in the lower stratosphere (LS). The applied test for causality reveals that during the examined period 1957–2012 there are two main centres of action in the winter NH, with tight and almost stationary winter ozone control on the near tropopause humidity. Being indirectly influenced by the solar protons, the variability of the SH lower stratospheric ozone, however, is much weaker. As a consequence, the causality test detects that the ozone dominates in the interplay with ULTS humidity only in the summer extra-tropics. HOW CAN THE SUN POSSIBLY CONTROL THE EARTH’S CLIMATE???
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Post by Ratty on Dec 15, 2017 13:18:02 GMT
HOW CAN THE SUN POSSIBLY CONTROL THE EARTH’S CLIMATE??? Yeah, ludicrous I know. Some scientists will say or do anything to be published. ** ** or to stop something being published.
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Post by blustnmtn on Dec 15, 2017 13:40:45 GMT
HOW CAN THE SUN POSSIBLY CONTROL THE EARTH’S CLIMATE??? Yeah, ludicrous I know. Some scientists will say or do anything to be published. ** ** or to stop something being published. That got Copernicus in a lot of trouble. 😜
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 15, 2017 19:28:48 GMT
There is a thread at WUWT following a posting 'Where Temperature Rules the Sun' from Willis Eisenbach who is reprising his 'convective weather, evaporation, rain and albedo act as a huge negative feedback' idea. However, the posts in the thread below it give an exceptionally good discussion and are worth a read... and especially: Which shows CO2 has zero effect on temperatures ... Really worth reading the entire thread wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/14/where-the-temperature-rules-the-sun/
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 15, 2017 23:45:50 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Dec 16, 2017 1:03:24 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 16, 2017 3:57:45 GMT
You're a data guy Ratty!
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 16, 2017 6:00:44 GMT
Dr Svalgaard just posted in reply to the previously referenced WUWT piece - www.leif.org/research/Polar-Fields-and-Prediction-of-Solar-Cycle-25.pdfHis comments are that SC24 still has a couple of years to go before minimum (2020 may be taking on a magic moment quality) and he's upped his assessment of SC25 to ... The Dipole Moment [DM] is what we use as predictor. It has now reached a value numerically slightly larger than at the previous minimum 2006-2008 and may be still growing. The observations in the coming year 2018 are crucial to assessing the final value of DM, but based on what we have now, one would predict Solar Cycle 25 to be slightly larger than Cycle 24. ... An educated guess for Cycle 25 (size between Cycles 20 and 24, based on extrapolated DM from WSO) completes the inferences.His prediction would begin to look very similar to cycles 12-15 (1870s-1910s) as shown in his chart. I think that would be cold enough. Columbia regularly had winter extremes falling into the -15 to -25 F range. We have not seen that in ever so long.
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Post by Ratty on Dec 16, 2017 7:24:02 GMT
You're a data guy Ratty! Always was, when in employ .... didn't have to graph anything though.
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Post by douglavers on Dec 16, 2017 20:37:11 GMT
A fascinating physical [climate] experiment is now reaching crunch time, probably over the next three years.
With the whole human race as observers.
I can't help thinking about what happens to lab rats when an experiment finishes..........
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 16, 2017 21:13:52 GMT
A fascinating physical [climate] experiment is now reaching crunch time, probably over the next three years. With the whole human race as observers. I can't help thinking about what happens to lab rats when an experiment finishes.......... They are set free and live in utopia ever after?
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 16, 2017 22:23:41 GMT
A fascinating physical [climate] experiment is now reaching crunch time, probably over the next three years. With the whole human race as observers. I can't help thinking about what happens to lab rats when an experiment finishes.......... " So long and thanks for all the fish"? the message left by the dolphins when they departed Planet Earth just before it was demolished to make way for a hyperspace bypassen.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/So_Long,_and_Thanks_for_All_the_Fish
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Post by blustnmtn on Dec 16, 2017 22:51:03 GMT
Dr Svalgaard just posted in reply to the previously referenced WUWT piece - www.leif.org/research/Polar-Fields-and-Prediction-of-Solar-Cycle-25.pdfHis comments are that SC24 still has a couple of years to go before minimum (2020 may be taking on a magic moment quality) and he's upped his assessment of SC25 to ... The Dipole Moment [DM] is what we use as predictor. It has now reached a value numerically slightly larger than at the previous minimum 2006-2008 and may be still growing. The observations in the coming year 2018 are crucial to assessing the final value off DM, but based on what we have now, one would predict Solar Cycle 25 to be slightly larger than Cycle 24. ... An educated guess for Cycle 25 (size between Cycles 20 and 24, based on extrapolated DM from WSO) completes the inferences.His prediction would begin to look very similar to cycles 12-15 (1870s-1910s) as shown in his chart. I think that would be cold enough. Columbia regularly had winter extremes falling into the -15 to -25 F range. We have not seen that in ever so long. Please translate this for me. Is Dr. S predicting that 25 will have more sun spots? "Solar Cycle 25 to be slightly larger than Cycle 24" Yes, he is saying 25 will be “slightly” stronger than 24. He is also noting a certain amount of uncertainty but is fairly confident that we are not witnessing a new Maunder Minimum. This is really great esoteric science.
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