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Post by graywolf on Jan 8, 2017 19:26:15 GMT
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ENSO 2017
Jan 8, 2017 20:00:43 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jan 8, 2017 20:00:43 GMT
I think they're getting all excited about SOI...
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Post by graywolf on Jan 10, 2017 11:19:15 GMT
The other thing being the QBO is still stuck 'westerly'? I thought Easterly was the favoured direction for a Nino with its impacts on convection over the regions?
This is why I found it doubly strange that it refused to flip last Feb when Nino was still strong? Surely everything favoured the flip in the troposphere so what was strong enough to halt the descent and push it back up still westerly?
If you're a B.O.M. Enso watcher you'll know Nina did not form after the 2016 Nino ( if you favour the lower , less complex NOAA measures then we are in a low grade Nina?) and this appears to be due to surface heat 'bleeding into' the regions and warming out the ascending cool wasters.
Could this occur in a way to trigger NOAA's lower trigger point over the coming summer (Feb, onward, seeing the sun heading up over the equator) or will the 'stuck' QBO keep it cloudy over the regions?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 10, 2017 12:06:25 GMT
The other thing being the QBO is still stuck 'westerly'? I thought Easterly was the favoured direction for a Nino with its impacts on convection over the regions? This is why I found it doubly strange that it refused to flip last Feb when Nino was still strong? Surely everything favoured the flip in the troposphere so what was strong enough to halt the descent and push it back up still westerly? If you're a B.O.M. Enso watcher you'll know Nina did not form after the 2016 Nino ( if you favour the lower , less complex NOAA measures then we are in a low grade Nina?) and this appears to be due to surface heat 'bleeding into' the regions and warming out the ascending cool wasters. Could this occur in a way to trigger NOAA's lower trigger point over the coming summer (Feb, onward, seeing the sun heading up over the equator) or will the 'stuck' QBO keep it cloudy over the regions? One thing that may have caused those changes GW is that the Earth has actually entered a new 'climate regime' possibly due to changes in some aspect of solar input to the system. So the chaotic systems are flipping to a new state or new states. So the correlation wiggles that everyone has been using, the 'teleconnections' that people are relying on like QBO and SOI may not apply in the new regime. This is a hazard of wiggle watching.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 10, 2017 19:23:13 GMT
I'm with you on the 'entering a new climate regime' and so if we ignore the forcings discussion are you seeing a temperature shift 'up' or 'down'as this would mess with what we would expect to see from the 'shift'?
I'm seeing a 'warm shift' and an accelerating one at that (now climate inertia has begun to be over ridden?).
As such this would facilitate a 'bleeding in' of warmer surface waters from outside the regions 'altering' the state even if the forcings for a 'normal ENSO events' are not there ( for a Nino) or swamping out a signal that is there ( for Nina).
I take it if this was a cooling change then that would work in reverse?
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ENSO 2017
Jan 10, 2017 20:20:09 GMT
via mobile
Post by sigurdur on Jan 10, 2017 20:20:09 GMT
Not really Graywolf. Inertia is marvelous force.
Think of grain markets!
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Post by mondeoman on Jan 10, 2017 22:58:56 GMT
If the climate system has inertia, how is the step change in global temps in 98 explained? They've pretty much flat-lined since then, but there was a jump. Must've been one helluva a rocket...
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 11, 2017 1:31:12 GMT
If the climate system has inertia, how is the step change in global temps in 98 explained? They've pretty much flat-lined since then, but there was a jump. Must've been one helluva a rocket... It was. The change was not much by historical standards, but it most certainly was there. Univ of Wisconsin had a paper about step change a bit ago. I made the mistake of only saving the link to said paper. No when I click on it, a 404 not found comes up. Just like the paper about hydrological cycles in the Central Plains, Southern Mid-Canada. Same results....404 not found. Another one that I miss is the paper talking about the Glaciers in Glacier National Park. How young they are. That paper also comes up with a 404 not found now. I have learned to NEVER rely on a link, I need to print the papers to PDF files and save them. Otherwise, if they show a contrarian abstract, they will be removed.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 11, 2017 1:54:04 GMT
I've found that too, over the years, and I do save a lot of stuff to be safe. PS: I have backups too .....
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 11, 2017 2:15:36 GMT
I've found that too, over the years, and I do save a lot of stuff to be safe. PS: I have backups too ..... Prime Russian hacking material then?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 11, 2017 2:16:04 GMT
I've found that too, over the years, and I do save a lot of stuff to be safe. PS: I have backups too ..... Pushups Ratty, pushups ... to us.
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Post by graywolf on Jan 12, 2017 16:14:48 GMT
PDO stayed positive in December so that's 3 years of PDO positives now? The blurb tells us we can see counter periods of sign within a phase but that these generally are 6 months or less with 18 months being the extreme . As such i think it safe to call PDO positive now ...3 years down the line! PDO positive does favour Nino and the full 3 years have seen Nino or near nino conditions apart from this recent fade from a fully fledged nino but ever this 'near Nina' ( according to B.O.M.) did not pan out as was forecast as Nino was ending....
Should we see a shift to near Nino what will that mean for global temps in 2017? 2nd highest?
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 12, 2017 17:11:31 GMT
PDO stayed positive in December so that's 3 years of PDO positives now? The blurb tells us we can see counter periods of sign within a phase but that these generally are 6 months or less with 18 months being the extreme . As such i think it safe to call PDO positive now ...3 years down the line! PDO positive does favour Nino and the full 3 years have seen Nino or near nino conditions apart from this recent fade from a fully fledged nino but ever this 'near Nina' ( according to B.O.M.) did not pan out as was forecast as Nino was ending.... Should we see a shift to near Nino what will that mean for global temps in 2017? 2nd highest? Record lows later in the year as more heat is sucked out (expelled) to the nether regions?
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Post by icefisher on Jan 13, 2017 4:50:17 GMT
PDO stayed positive in December so that's 3 years of PDO positives now? The blurb tells us we can see counter periods of sign within a phase but that these generally are 6 months or less with 18 months being the extreme . As such i think it safe to call PDO positive now ...3 years down the line! PDO positive does favour Nino and the full 3 years have seen Nino or near nino conditions apart from this recent fade from a fully fledged nino but ever this 'near Nina' ( according to B.O.M.) did not pan out as was forecast as Nino was ending.... Should we see a shift to near Nino what will that mean for global temps in 2017? 2nd highest? I think what you have done is take one El Nino in a row and are using it to predict more El Ninos. The PDO pattern is defined by multiple cycles. One El Nino in a row does not make even one cycle. If indeed you are correct that the cool phase of the PDO is gone either we have no pattern for prediction or the PDO index is not properly defined. That would mean Greywolf that your crystal ball lacks a bit of documentation.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 13, 2017 5:05:50 GMT
My crystal ball is always calibrated direct from the Interweb:
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