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Post by Ratty on Mar 18, 2017 7:46:18 GMT
The above type of event is more common than one thinks. The rains in Peru or the Tribune being in error?
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 18, 2017 11:19:05 GMT
No El Nino on this map
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Post by graywolf on Mar 18, 2017 11:45:12 GMT
There is no El Nino at present but if you look at the Region 1 and 2 sst's they are well in excess of Nino values? For the coastal areas of South America this configuration leads to the same impacts as a full blown Nino so they say it as they see it!!!
When it becomes global news it then gets confusing as we need all the regions to be above 05c for five consecutive three month periods all above the trigger temp?
Personally i don't see why the locals so impacted should not call it 'Nino Weather' even if the ENSO doesn't agree?
But then California has had a very Nino winter............
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 18, 2017 12:02:16 GMT
There is no El Nino at present but if you look at the Region 1 and 2 sst's they are well in excess of Nino values? For the coastal areas of South America this configuration leads to the same impacts as a full blown Nino so they say it as they see it!!! When it becomes global news it then gets confusing as we need all the regions to be above 05c for five consecutive three month periods all above the trigger temp? Personally i don't see why the locals so impacted should not call it 'Nino Weather' even if the ENSO doesn't agree? But then California has had a very Nino winter............ That isn't the way it is called. Nino 3.4 is the sole indicator if that area is warm the rest of the Pacific can be covered in multi-year ice and the climate 'scientists' will be hooting and hollering about the El Nino.
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Post by Ratty on Mar 18, 2017 12:44:35 GMT
There will be no La Nino this year.
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Post by graywolf on Mar 18, 2017 13:04:32 GMT
There is no El Nino at present but if you look at the Region 1 and 2 sst's they are well in excess of Nino values? For the coastal areas of South America this configuration leads to the same impacts as a full blown Nino so they say it as they see it!!! When it becomes global news it then gets confusing as we need all the regions to be above 05c for five consecutive three month periods all above the trigger temp? Personally i don't see why the locals so impacted should not call it 'Nino Weather' even if the ENSO doesn't agree? But then California has had a very Nino winter............ That isn't the way it is called. Nino 3.4 is the sole indicator if that area is warm the rest of the Pacific can be covered in multi-year ice and the climate 'scientists' will be hooting and hollering about the El Nino. Yes,yes, that's the way the world measures and calls it but the people who 'named' it , and lived with it for millenia, call the impacts of certain weathers by that name. We are altering the climate and so warmer oceans or high sst anoms just off shore produce , what to them is El Nino ( with the disturbances beginning around Christmas). The Peruvian press report what the locals are experiencing and they call the flooding/landslides a Nino event. The Western press do not understand ENSO regions or trigger temps or atmospheric cooperation just that the Peruvian report called it El Nino........
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ENSO 2017
Mar 18, 2017 13:06:09 GMT
via mobile
Post by sigurdur on Mar 18, 2017 13:06:09 GMT
The above type of event is more common than one thinks. The rains in Peru or the Tribune being in error? Both
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 18, 2017 14:44:12 GMT
That isn't the way it is called. Nino 3.4 is the sole indicator if that area is warm the rest of the Pacific can be covered in multi-year ice and the climate 'scientists' will be hooting and hollering about the El Nino. Yes,yes, that's the way the world measures and calls it but the people who 'named' it , and lived with it for millenia, call the impacts of certain weathers by that name. We are altering the climate and so warmer oceans or high sst anoms just off shore produce , what to them is El Nino ( with the disturbances beginning around Christmas). The Peruvian press report what the locals are experiencing and they call the flooding/landslides a Nino event. The Western press do not understand ENSO regions or trigger temps or atmospheric cooperation just that the Peruvian report called it El Nino........ Strangely, last year's 'monster El Nino' only showed in 3.4 and the fishermen who named the meteorological events based on their fish catches would not have called it an El Nino as their anchovy catch was excellent. So I think the facile linking of these events is a little misguided. Or to put it another way the correlation that everyone has been spouting is breaking down. Rather like pulling up behind another car indicating at a turn and noticing that your indicator is flashing in synch with the car ahead. That doesn't mean that the indicator of the car ahead is controlling your indicator..... just a random correlation. It is a tendency for people to pattern match - but the match is often illogical.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 18, 2017 21:38:27 GMT
Pretty regular Code minus 2006. Small sample but the first 5 occur immediately prior to an El Nino (1996 was the year before and 1961 was 2 years before. The gap occurs during the pause and the transition to solar minimum. Note that this year's event occurred in the year after. Coincidence? These years, not surprisingly coincide mostly with wet California winters. Rank order: 1) 2016-17 3) 1997-98 4) 1982-83 10) 1951-51. CA splits the middle of 1961 and 1972 with winter 1968-69 ranked as 2nd wettest. Wet and cool seem to go together except for 1996 and 1951? www.mercurynews.com/2017/03/08/california-storms-wettest-water-year-so-far-in-122-years-of-records/You should be in heaven looking down that climate slope?
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ENSO 2017
Mar 19, 2017 12:44:46 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Mar 19, 2017 12:44:46 GMT
BBC news is reporting that Peruvian floods are due to El Nino....so there we are, fact!
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Post by graywolf on Mar 19, 2017 12:59:24 GMT
I think we are getting in to dog and tail territory? Out planet only allows for a limited number of meteorological expressions. Atmospheric moisture can only fall as rain,graupel, hail and snow so no matter what causes it the end results will be in the form of one of those precipitation types?
Now we could have a very cold Arctic whose cold is growing outward enveloping lands further south or a broken Arctic that spills out its contents over those southern lands. The southern lands see snow but that driving the event is a polar opposite?
So now we have a reduction in the pollution flooding out of Asia ,this leads to more of the energy ,available at the top of the atmosphere, reaching the ocean surface below and so able to warm it more than it was able over its 'dimmed' period. Warm Ocean means evaporation and so clouds and so rain. So instead of warm waters surfacing and driving cloud/rains we see surface warming driving rains.
The folk getting rained on only know it is raining. If in the past the only time they saw such rains was during Nino events why would they not call it for what they see it as?
EDIT: Didn't we see record wildfires and drought in this region just prior to the nino rains? Funny old weather world eh?
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 19, 2017 14:30:43 GMT
BBC news is reporting that Peruvian floods are due to El Nino....so there we are, fact! In which case it must be an issued 'talking point' as there are no SST or SOI indications of an El Nino.
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ENSO 2017
Mar 19, 2017 15:02:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Mar 19, 2017 15:02:56 GMT
Now we could have a very cold Arctic whose cold is growing outward enveloping lands further south or a broken Arctic that spills out its contents over those southern lands. The southern lands see snow but that driving the event is a polar opposite?
Or......it's just how it happens as things cool....
The whole 'as it gets warmer it'll get cooler' thing is a bit, well...
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ENSO 2017
Mar 19, 2017 15:05:18 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Mar 19, 2017 15:05:18 GMT
BBC news is reporting that Peruvian floods are due to El Nino....so there we are, fact! In which case it must be an issued 'talking point' as there are no SST or SOI indications of an El Nino. I really wouldn't put it past the BBC....from a 'denier' viewpoint they are a bit of a mouthpiece... Makes one wonder from whatever viewpoints they keep 'on message'
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 19, 2017 15:09:37 GMT
I think we are getting in to dog and tail territory? Out planet only allows for a limited number of meteorological expressions. Atmospheric moisture can only fall as rain,graupel, hail and snow so no matter what causes it the end results will be in the form of one of those precipitation types? Now we could have a very cold Arctic whose cold is growing outward enveloping lands further south or a broken Arctic that spills out its contents over those southern lands. The southern lands see snow but that driving the event is a polar opposite? So now we have a reduction in the pollution flooding out of Asia ,this leads to more of the energy ,available at the top of the atmosphere, reaching the ocean surface below and so able to warm it more than it was able over its 'dimmed' period. Warm Ocean means evaporation and so clouds and so rain. So instead of warm waters surfacing and driving cloud/rains we see surface warming driving rains. The folk getting rained on only know it is raining. If in the past the only time they saw such rains was during Nino events why would they not call it for what they see it as? EDIT: Didn't we see record wildfires and drought in this region just prior to the nino rains? Funny old weather world eh? The energy for the Earth's atmospheric circulation comes from the tropics where the convection in the Hadley cells drive the initial circulation then the Ferrel cells are in the temperate zone and finally there is the polar areas. The jet streams mark the boundaries of these convective cells. If there is a high energy input into the tropics then the Hadley cells grow and the other circulations are pushed poleward and the jetstreams become stronger and meridonal. What is happening at the moment at both poles is that the jets are latitudinal which shows that the strength of the Hadley cell convection is reduced. Now look at earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-1.77,85.86,608 See how the polar jet has wandered equatorward indeed recently we saw the Hadley / Ferrel cell boundary jets wandering across the equator. So the 'heat engine' of the Earth's atmosphere has started to run down. The effect is that the normal atmospheric circulation is reducing, and the poles are not as dry and comparatively warmer while the temperate zones are sometimes a lot colder and the steady state convective patterns are getting less distinct and variable. As omega highs still form they will result in 'atmospheric rivers' of various types such as recently in the West coast of the USA and then a few months later the West coast of South America. It is a chaotic system but you could see a similar effect on Western Europe - such as the recent flooding in Spain. If the Sun stays quiet expect the jetstreams to become more diffuse and weather less stable. Of course the latitudinal cloudiness will also alter the input into the thermohaline circulation. One of the engines for that circulation is the annual melting of fresh cold water from the poles, if that reduces the thermohaline circulation loses that driver and who knows what impact that may have. Potentially parts of the circulation like the North Atlantic Drift could weaken potentially resulting in North West Europe receiving less heat. But as there will also be less humidity from the ocean, the atmospheric temperature that climate 'scientists' mistakenly focus on, may stay stable or actually increase despite less heat as the enthalpy will be lower so less heat is required to keep the atmospheric temperature up. To my mind this is a total failure of the so called scientists and atmospheric scientists; they are using the wrong metric for heat content and that is indefensible. I have found a major tendency recently with scientists and sadly engineers, to use ambiguous colloquialisms instead of precise language and this inevitably leads to ontological confusion. Nowhere is this more the case than in words like heat, warmer, warming - and exacerbated by the use of averaging and anomalies - ending up with totally meaningless but mathematically accurate to n places of decimals values. /rant
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