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Post by Ratty on Apr 9, 2017 7:23:49 GMT
No melt this year. Ask me again next year. Can you "discretely" ship me some of what you are drinking or smoking thar Ratty? Sorry Sig. It's still under development and I'm applying for a patent. Hic!
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 10, 2017 8:11:58 GMT
Here is the up to date list I hope I have not missed anybody 9th.May seems popular
22nd.April Acidohm 28th.April Icefisher 30th.April phydeaux 2nd.May NeilHamp 9th.May 00.01hrs Douglavers 9th.May 18.46hrs Sigurdur 11th.May Dontgetoutmuch No melt Ratty (Hic!)
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Post by douglavers on Apr 10, 2017 11:39:02 GMT
One minute into the 9th!!
My Crystal Ball says I may be wrong by up to one minute, with 95% confidence.
It is very important in science to know the precision of your numbers.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 10, 2017 12:01:21 GMT
One minute into the 9th!! My Crystal Ball says I may be wrong by up to one minute, with 95% confidence. It is very important in science to know the precision of your numbers. Nobody should be only 95% sure. Ninety-seven is the accepted figure in this new age. Got it?
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Post by Ratty on Apr 10, 2017 12:02:31 GMT
Here is the up to date list I hope I have not missed anybody 9th.May seems popular I am confused by Doug's entry Sorry to be so pedantic Doug Do you mean 1 minute past noon or 1 minute past midnight on 9th.May? 22nd.April Acidohm 30th.April phydeaux 2nd.May NeilHamp 9th.May 12.01am (00.01hrs ?)Douglavers 9th.May 18.46hrs Sigurdur 11th.May Dontgetoutmuch You've missed my prediction Neil.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 10, 2017 22:03:15 GMT
If I am not too late I will go for Apr 28
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Post by dontgetoutmuch on Apr 14, 2017 19:02:55 GMT
Here is the up to date list I hope I have not missed anybody 9th.May seems popular I am confused by Doug's entry Sorry to be so pedantic Doug Do you mean 1 minute past noon or 1 minute past midnight on 9th.May? 22nd.April Acidohm 28th.April IceFisher 30th.April phydeaux 2nd.May NeilHamp 9th.May 12.01am (00.01hrs ?)Douglavers 9th.May 18.46hrs Sigurdur 11th.May Dontgetoutmuch No Melt Ratty (Hic)
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 15, 2017 7:14:27 GMT
Record of Breakout since 1998 The ice thickness in inches in early March is shown adjacent to each date 2012 and 2016 were the earliest breakouts in recent years The earliest ever date was 1998. This also occurred back in 1940
1998 - April 20 - 39"
1999 - April 29 - 44" 2000 - May 1 - 35” 2001 - May 8 - 42” 2002 - May 7 - 51” 2003 - April 29 - 43” 2004 - April 24 - 25” 2005 - April 28 - 42” 2006 - May 02 - 45” 2007 - April 27 - 46” 2008 - May 06 - 51” 2009 - May 1 - 41” 2010 - April 29 - 47” 2011 - May 4 - 45” 2012 - April 23 - 34”2013 - May 20 - 48” 2014 - April 25 - 39” 2015 – April 23 - 39" 2016 – April 23 - 40"
2017 - ?? - 38"
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 15, 2017 7:43:28 GMT
Just as a reminder to all those watching paint dry Icefisher was last year's winner 2016 entry list
17th.April Code 19th.April Sigurdur 22nd.April Throttleup
23rd.April Icefisher Breakout on 23rd.!
25th.April NeilHamp 26th.April Phydeaux 28th.April Andrew 29th.April Douglavers 30th.April Acidolm 1st.May Ratty 2nd.May Hrizzo
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 15, 2017 7:50:21 GMT
Just repeating a previous post from 2015 When the AMO was rising from 1970 to 2000, the break-up dates were occurring earlier and earlier each year. Since the AMO has ceased to rise in 2000 the early break-up trend has ceased Since 2000 Break-up dates are becoming later each year Expect longer and longer break-up dates as the AMO starts to fall Out of interest I have added below the HadCRUT4 Arctic Polar temperatures. Expect these to start falling with the falling AMO. The trend in summer time Arctic Ice extent suggests it might be starting to stabilize. Expect a modest increase over the next decade as the AMO starts to fall!
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Post by Ratty on Apr 15, 2017 9:25:21 GMT
Like I said ....
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 21, 2017 7:06:16 GMT
I continue to watch the paint dry. Sad! They are still measuring the ice thickness this year Looks like breakout will last beyond 23rd.April Will it make 1st.May? Year - Breakout - Ice thickness in late April 2010 - April 29 - 41” 2011 - May 4 - 39” 2012 - April 23 - 28”2013 - May 20 - 49” 2014 - April 25 - 36” 2015 – April 23 - last measurement 6th.April
2016 – April 23 - 32"
2017 - ?? - 35" Here is a re-post of the up to date list 22nd.April Acidohm 28th.April Icefisher 30th.April phydeaux 2nd.May NeilHamp 9th.May 00.01hrs Douglavers 9th.May 18.46hrs Sigurdur 11th.May Dontgetoutmuch No melt Ratty (Hic!)
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Post by acidohm on Apr 21, 2017 9:25:14 GMT
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 26, 2017 6:53:47 GMT
Ice thickness measured again on April 24th Dropped to 29.7 inches This will probably be the last measurement before breakup
There were only two years since 2000 when measurements of thickness were taken as late as April 24th. Both these years extended into May Expect action in the next 7 days
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Post by Ratty on Apr 26, 2017 6:54:48 GMT
... or not.
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