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Post by sigurdur on Aug 23, 2017 15:53:22 GMT
This is going to be a bad one for me. Forecasts for over 2' of rain from Harvey as it moves in and stalls over the weekend. Any danger of you experiencing flooding?
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 23, 2017 17:05:04 GMT
This is going to be a bad one for me. Forecasts for over 2' of rain from Harvey as it moves in and stalls over the weekend. Any danger of you experiencing flooding? Very much so. Houston is known as the Bayou City so we can handle quite a bit of water but we have also grown so much over the last decade their has been lots of concrete poured which will lead to faster runoff and challenge our Bayous ability to hold all the water. And if it does happen again ignore the Media. In 1979 Tropical Storm Claudette dumped 43 inches of rain over Houston in just 24 hours. In June of 2001 Tropical Storm Allison dumped 40 inches over a few days. Then there was Hurricane's Alicia in 1983 and Ike in 2008. So we are used to tropical systems dumping copious amounts of water. This will not be "unprecedented" and not because of "climate change" even though we may here that from the media if this turns into the mess it has the potential to. Currently the forecast does not look good. Model consensus has it going in just east of Corpus Christi as a cat one hurricane stalling and then slowly meandering east and north east. This track (if it happens) will put Houston on the wet side of this storm for upwards of four days. Has the potential to dump very large quantities of rain.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 23, 2017 17:13:38 GMT
Joe Bastardi worried about Galveston getting flooded from the North...
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 23, 2017 17:46:20 GMT
Right now the main threat appears to be flooding from the heavy rains. But heaven forbid if Harvey is able to strengthen into a cat 2 hurricane and linger with heavy rains AND a wind driven storm surge. Kind of the worst possible scenario for those around Galveston and Matagorda Bays.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 23, 2017 23:21:48 GMT
Stay dry and think of ...
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Aug 23, 2017 23:46:57 GMT
Right now the main threat appears to be flooding from the heavy rains. But heaven forbid if Harvey is able to strengthen into a cat 2 hurricane and linger with heavy rains AND a wind driven storm surge. Kind of the worst possible scenario for those around Galveston and Matagorda Bays. Hang in there Mr. Glenn, and let's hope the trough heading down from the north gets here sooner than the current models say. That will push Harvey east of H-Town, and get you on the drier side. He becomes our problem then. What with half our pumps down here in NOLA, I may get to see if I remember how to paddle a canoe with the J-Stroke. By the way, my canoe has a name. I call it B.L. Bliss. It's the canoe B.L. Bliss. Say it quickly.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 24, 2017 3:07:22 GMT
Stay dry and think of ... Thats pretty astute of you Ratty being an Aussie and all. I am a big Jimmy Stewart fan also.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 24, 2017 4:01:42 GMT
Let's hope this Harvey isn't a big one .....
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 24, 2017 4:21:53 GMT
Right now the main threat appears to be flooding from the heavy rains. But heaven forbid if Harvey is able to strengthen into a cat 2 hurricane and linger with heavy rains AND a wind driven storm surge. Kind of the worst possible scenario for those around Galveston and Matagorda Bays. Hang in there Mr. Glenn, and let's hope the trough heading down from the north gets here sooner than the current models say. That will push Harvey east of H-Town, and get you on the drier side. He becomes our problem then. What with half our pumps down here in NOLA, I may get to see if I remember how to paddle a canoe with the J-Stroke. By the way, my canoe has a name. I call it B.L. Bliss. It's the canoe B.L. Bliss. Say it quickly. Phydeaux, Thank you. One thing I have observed over the years is a westward bias to the models. In 2005 models forecast a Category 5 Hurricane Rita to strike Matagorda bay. It came ashore near the Texas/LA border. Hurricane Ike was forecast to come in south of Freeport, Texas it made landfall on the East end of Galveston Island. Models forecast Harvey to come ashore well south of the border in Mexico. They have since migrated east. The latest runs have actually moved westward towards Corpus Christi followed by a stall and sharp turn east. We will see
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 24, 2017 15:07:04 GMT
Joe is saying this will be a major H when it hits, so it will have to increase in force. www.weatherbell.com/Joe is also saying that it will turn West and South and may re-enter the Gulf from southern Texas. All the energy being removed from the Gulf will result in a cooler North Atlantic Drift in 3 or 4 months time just when North West Europe will want it warmer.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 24, 2017 17:17:00 GMT
Harvey now hurricane strength - and the excitement is building in the meteorological community - I have just heard one who will remain nameless talk it up to a Cat 4 storm. A storm surge of 10ft is also expected. Hurricanes often significantly change as their circulations impact with the shore usually weakening and changing direction - normally veering rather than backing. Note that this NHC forecast agrees with Joe Bastardi that the Hurricane could reverse back out over Galveston with winds forcing the flooded Bay water against the barrier islands from the North where defenses are less developed.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 24, 2017 18:18:26 GMT
Latest model tracks from Mikes Spaghetti Models page note how all the tracks give a dwardle of a few days:
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 24, 2017 18:37:40 GMT
Video looks like it comes from the new GOES 16
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 24, 2017 21:32:20 GMT
From the NHC. Forecast is getting worse. Models are indicating 30" plus rainfall totals. The good news is the models are seldom even in the ballpark with events like this. But the latest runs are now showing a stalling much nearer the coast. If this thing runs right up to the coast, stalls for four or five days and runs north east from there it could be "the big one" My part of the world could be on the NE quadrant for as much as four or five days. I have been through a bunch of these. Ike and Alicia moved through in a few hours causing billions of dollars in damage. I simply can't fathom 4 or 5 days of hurricane/tropical storm force winds and rain.
Harvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. A strengthening mid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push Harvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest motion should continue up until landfall. However, a stronger mid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast to cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just inland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4. After that time, the track models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly eastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48 hours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much greater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast to slow down. Such guidance is usually an indication that the cyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official forecast.
Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening. Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next 12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday. There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48 hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3 through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this part of the forecast.
It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.
Key Messages:
1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.
2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast. Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12 feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.
3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.
4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.
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Post by glennkoks on Aug 24, 2017 21:34:24 GMT
Stay safe Glen. I'm sure you know the drills and it would be weird to say stock up on water when you have so damn much water coming your way so I will just say stay safe. Code, Thanks, We will make it one way or another. Going to be interesting this weekend to say the least.
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