|
Post by glennkoks on Jul 20, 2017 0:50:19 GMT
Code,
I am on record of being skeptical of anyones ability to forecast our weather with much accuracy beyond 10 days. Astromet has been forecasting cooling to begin in December of 2017 for years. His forecast will be validated or it won't. As far as "Scientific Legitimacy" in his work? I have seen plenty of formally educated so called "scientists" who could not accurately forecast the weather tomorrow not to mention the climate several years in advance.
In my opinion Astromet does not need a "voice in the scientific community" to be accurate. That does not mean that his methods are not "scientific".
Time will tell..
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Jul 20, 2017 1:20:12 GMT
Code, I am on record of being skeptical of anyones ability to forecast our weather with much accuracy beyond 10 days. Astromet has been forecasting cooling to begin in December of 2017 for years. His forecast will be validated or it won't. As far as "Scientific Legitimacy" in his work? I have seen plenty of formally educated so called "scientists" who could not accurately forecast the weather tomorrow not to mention the climate several years in advance. In my opinion Astromet does not need a "voice in the scientific community" to be accurate. That does not mean that his methods are not "scientific". Time will tell.. Thanks Glenn, you happen to be one of the few honest people who can be skeptical and still takes the time to listen and learn even after debate, but I like the fact that you believe in 'validation' which is what my advanced forecasts are all about. Appreciate it very much. Thank you.
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Jul 20, 2017 5:23:50 GMT
I see little point in throwing rocks when the hypothesis is due for validation.
My issue with Astro is purely that I don't know what is used for the process but that is no reason to bag it.
We will watch and if things clearly show cooling I suggest we will be begging Astro for an insight into the process.
For the record I hold a probabilistic type of pole in my mind and it sits at 20% currently in Astro's favor but rising.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 20, 2017 13:40:50 GMT
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Jul 20, 2017 13:53:37 GMT
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Jul 20, 2017 22:35:52 GMT
I see little point in throwing rocks when the hypothesis is due for validation. My issue with Astro is purely that I don't know what is used for the process but that is no reason to bag it. We will watch and if things clearly show cooling I suggest we will be begging Astro for an insight into the process. For the record I hold a probabilistic type of pole in my mind and it sits at 20% currently in Astro's favor but rising. Nonentropic, now really. I don't know where you came up with that 20% as the solar minimum is coming and every single minimum has resulted in global cooling on Earth (as well as all the planets of our solar system.) Also, how many times have I posted detailed tutorials on astronomic forecasting here? So how can you have an issue with you saying that you do not know what is used for the 'process?' (which is astronomic forecasting.) And, while all you non-forecasters 'watch' you should have already been seeing the cooling which has been going on since 2003 in fact. That was 14 years ago and it continues as solar cycle #24 winds down to begin the Sun's Grand Minimum, as I long forecasted begins the new climate regime of global cooling, a little ice age. The Earth has had these solar minimums and global cooling eras before, so it is not rocket science for anyone to take a look back in climate history to see that this is not new. It is only 'new' to those who wait and watch, but are not doing much of any preparation for the impact global cooling will soon have on your lives?
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Jul 21, 2017 3:45:30 GMT
Sigurdur, As the resident farmer on these boards just how much cooling do you think it would take to create the kinds of crop failures and food shortages Astromet and the gentleman over at Adapt2030 have been warning us about? In your opinion should the rest of us be worried about food supplies during the upcoming solar minimum? I have done a modest amount of preparation but just how vulnerable do you think we are to this possibility? I think a farmers perspective on just how much cooling it would take to create food shortages would certainly be valuable to this discussion.
|
|
|
Post by AstroMet on Jul 21, 2017 3:59:11 GMT
Astro-Sorry for late reply as I was out of town. "Don't insult our intelligence. Spare us all, please." I'm worried about my intelligence, you wrote: "You will see how over the last several years, climatologists and astrophysicists have been using my long-range solar quiescent phase forecast for global cooling to extend the climate change to the little ice age to the year 2053." I won't ask for a list of climatologists using your solar forecasts. But you did ask me to.... "So, Code, why don't you tell all of us this: Just how are all those types you mentioned with your so-called 'creed' claim to be 'legitimate' when they cannot forecast?" I think we're talking about 2 different professions. Climatologists don't forecast. Right? I don't know what you're talking about... "2 different professions?" What are you talking about Code? Listen, the entire point of Science, in the final analysis, is the ability to PREDICT. That's it. Now, seeing how you've bought into the pink-elephant-can-fly man-made global warming ideology/scheme, it is not a wonder how you've been showing ignorance about what it takes to forecast - accurately - the Earth's weather and climate conditions. That is what I do, and I've done it for a long time, accurately, so your 'belief,' or 'opinion' isn't a factor at all. And, when you assume and presume (your probabilities and all that) well, that's all fine and good, but it's not science, nor is it forecasting. It's just your assumptions all over the place and it makes no sense. So, you go ahead and find that list of climatologists using my solar forecasts; as I have much better things to do and I've been doing just that - forecasting. Have a nice day.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2017 12:05:39 GMT
Sigurdur, As the resident farmer on these boards just how much cooling do you think it would take to create the kinds of crop failures and food shortages Astromet and the gentleman over at Adapt2030 have been warning us about? In your opinion should the rest of us be worried about food supplies during the upcoming solar minimum? I have done a modest amount of preparation but just how vulnerable do you think we are to this possibility? I think a farmers perspective on just how much cooling it would take to create food shortages would certainly be valuable to this discussion. A 1.0C cooling over a period of time would result in serious declines in corn and soybean production. The cropping area wouldn't change much, but the advantage of the higher yields from a longer growing season variety would be lost. 100 day corn verses 80 day corn. There is a 40-50 bushel/acre yield bump with the 100 day corn. Same with soybeans. An 05 will yield 80 bushels/acre. An 005 will yield 35 bushels/acre. Wheat will be less affected as it is a cool season crop. As with any crop though, an early frost would result in decimated yields. A 1.5C drop in temperature would result in panic.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Jul 21, 2017 13:05:55 GMT
Sigurdur, As the resident farmer on these boards just how much cooling do you think it would take to create the kinds of crop failures and food shortages Astromet and the gentleman over at Adapt2030 have been warning us about? In your opinion should the rest of us be worried about food supplies during the upcoming solar minimum? I have done a modest amount of preparation but just how vulnerable do you think we are to this possibility? I think a farmers perspective on just how much cooling it would take to create food shortages would certainly be valuable to this discussion. A 1.0C cooling over a period of time would result in serious declines in corn and soybean production. The cropping area wouldn't change much, but the advantage of the higher yields from a longer growing season variety would be lost. 100 day corn verses 80 day corn. There is a 40-50 bushel/acre yield bump with the 100 day corn. Same with soybeans. An 05 will yield 80 bushels/acre. An 005 will yield 35 bushels/acre. Wheat will be less affected as it is a cool season crop. As with any crop though, an early frost would result in decimated yields. A 1.5C drop in temperature would result in panic. Well according to our friends over at the IPCC we have warmed about .08 degrees C since 1880. So we would need to lose all that plus another quarter of a degree or so to start feeling stress. And a full degree and a half to get into panic mode? With that being said we have experienced about 25 Dansgaard–Oeschger events during the last 100,000 years. Roughly every 1500 years or so. Before each event their seems to be rapid warming occurring within a few decades followed by a temperature drop of up to 5C. The rapid warming sounds eerily familiar... We will see what happens next but if a 1.5 degree drop would cause "panic" what would would a five degree drop over a period of a few decades cause? Personally I do not think this is likely but it's not science fiction either. Not if it has happened 25 times over the last 100,000 years.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 21, 2017 13:20:51 GMT
A 5.0C temperature drop? I would be broke and a climate refugee.
|
|
|
Post by glennkoks on Jul 21, 2017 13:25:06 GMT
A 5.0C temperature drop? I would be broke and a climate refugee. I am already broke but hopefully I could grow something to eat this far south!
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 21, 2017 15:39:51 GMT
Sigurdur, As the resident farmer on these boards just how much cooling do you think it would take to create the kinds of crop failures and food shortages Astromet and the gentleman over at Adapt2030 have been warning us about? In your opinion should the rest of us be worried about food supplies during the upcoming solar minimum? I have done a modest amount of preparation but just how vulnerable do you think we are to this possibility? I think a farmers perspective on just how much cooling it would take to create food shortages would certainly be valuable to this discussion. A 1.0C cooling over a period of time would result in serious declines in corn and soybean production. The cropping area wouldn't change much, but the advantage of the higher yields from a longer growing season variety would be lost. 100 day corn verses 80 day corn. There is a 40-50 bushel/acre yield bump with the 100 day corn. Same with soybeans. An 05 will yield 80 bushels/acre. An 005 will yield 35 bushels/acre. Wheat will be less affected as it is a cool season crop. As with any crop though, an early frost would result in decimated yields. A 1.5C drop in temperature would result in panic. Time to bring out the historical temperature graphs again. Recap ... these stations were selected from those that looked believable, in the sense that they still retained historical highs in the 1930s and 40s, and thus had perhaps escaped the worst adjustments from the temperature 'homogenizers'. The annual series shows a large separation between the southern and northern stations in the series. There is also a distinct temperature plateau in the northern time series, which is about 2 C higher than the early 1900s. It declines by about 0.5C into the 1960s-70s cool period. Since about 2004 there has been great variation with a general decline to levels that look very much like the late 1970s. The southern station series have generally escaped the larger cool-period swing of the northern stations. Station data is current through mid-2016. So what about seasons? I chose May and July as generally representative of the agricultural growing season. As expected, seasonal variance is greater than annual. For July, the 60-year temperature plateau (~1930-1990) is distinct and annual highs and lows generally extend through all stations north to south. July temperature deviations between northern and southern stations were least during the 1930-1990 period. Another takeaway might be that the cooling period in the 1890s-1900 may have affected summer temperatures more than the 1960s-70s, while May temperatures appear similar between the two periods. July temperatures at the northern stations have become increasingly variable since 1990, May temperatures have shown a distinct decline in the same time period and appear to be at levels not seen since the 1970s. Once updated through summer 2017, something interesting may emerge ... or not. This not meant to be any type of comprehensive analysis. I merely throw the data out for everyone to look at. Astro's comment that temperatures have been declining since the 1990s appears to be true for the northern grain belt ... even given what appears to be an organized effort the DENY it. I threw in the January temperature series only for comparison.
|
|
|
Post by sigurdur on Jul 22, 2017 0:25:02 GMT
Your graphs require a larger screen.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Jul 22, 2017 1:17:49 GMT
Your graphs require a larger screen. Or more powerful bi-focals. That's why data guys go blind. July of 1992 and 1993 are interesting ... 4C decline in temp that extends for several months for stations north of about 42N. Only thing I can find is the Mt Redoubt eruptions of June, August and September of 1992. Of course this followed the Mt Pinatubo eruption of June, 1991, but the record does not seem to show anything dramatic until June 1992. 4C is rather dramatic if there were no other extenuating events.
|
|