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Post by acidohm on Sept 15, 2017 19:56:24 GMT
notrickszone.com/2017/09/15/as-la-nina-looms-warmists-skid-into-panic-mode-global-warming-pause-set-to-surpass-two-decades/#sthash.l6G1Mi0o.goxRIIBw.dpbsOne of my favourite weather analyists, Gavsweathervids...recently posted a restrospective outlook for 09/10 winter from september '09. Looked very similar to what models are generally forecasting now, incorrectly with hindsight. Perhaps shows which way he is thinking. Having many short intense rainfall events and it's generally no warmer then 30+ years ago. Feels very similar to 2007.... Currently too, expanses of cool air are heading south into Mediterranean Europe, a bit like how their coldest april in living memory happened (It's true, i spoke to the elderly in Croatia!) I'm off out there in 2 weeks, usually take swim shorts but fear the hot summer may have gone already...
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 15, 2017 20:58:15 GMT
notrickszone.com/2017/09/15/as-la-nina-looms-warmists-skid-into-panic-mode-global-warming-pause-set-to-surpass-two-decades/#sthash.l6G1Mi0o.goxRIIBw.dpbsOne of my favourite weather analyists, Gavsweathervids...recently posted a restrospective outlook for 09/10 winter from september '09. Looked very similar to what models are generally forecasting now, incorrectly with hindsight. Perhaps shows which way he is thinking. Having many short intense rainfall events and it's generally no warmer then 30+ years ago. Feels very similar to 2007.... Currently too, expanses of cool air are heading south into Mediterranean Europe, a bit like how their coldest april in living memory happened (It's true, i spoke to the elderly in Croatia!) I'm off out there in 2 weeks, usually take swim shorts but fear the hot summer may have gone already... Acid. Do you have a link to that 'retrospective outlook'? Would be most interesting.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 15, 2017 21:25:33 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 15, 2017 22:43:11 GMT
Here is an interesting graph for you. Note the seeming correspondence of strong negative NAO years (13-Mth centered running average) with ENSO (13-Month centered running average), in comparison to the solar cycles. Strong negative NAOs seem to be associated with strong positive ENSO events (during or following). Recognizing that there may be differences in events preceding vs following solar maximums, are there same / similar forces driving each? Speculation encouraged ... research studies wanted.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 16, 2017 1:23:41 GMT
"research studies wanted"
Did you forget to mention a grant?
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 16, 2017 1:38:57 GMT
"research studies wanted" Did you forget to mention a grant? Existing, completed, with results.
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Post by acidohm on Sept 28, 2017 9:59:31 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 28, 2017 11:19:16 GMT
Here is an interesting graph for you. Note the seeming correspondence of strong negative NAO years (13-Mth centered running average) with ENSO (13-Month centered running average), in comparison to the solar cycles. Strong negative NAOs seem to be associated with strong positive ENSO events (during or following). Recognizing that there may be differences in events preceding vs following solar maximums, are there same / similar forces driving each? Speculation encouraged ... research studies wanted. Interesting that the 2015 nino is behind 97 and 82 in its values there... Our winters of 09 & 10 are clearly marching a very low nao, also 98 but not 62/3 one of the coldest in living memory!! I did find a paper offering a teleconnection between atlantic and pacific patterns...ill find it and post here too....
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 28, 2017 12:55:05 GMT
Here is an interesting graph for you. Note the seeming correspondence of strong negative NAO years (13-Mth centered running average) with ENSO (13-Month centered running average), in comparison to the solar cycles. Strong negative NAOs seem to be associated with strong positive ENSO events (during or following). Recognizing that there may be differences in events preceding vs following solar maximums, are there same / similar forces driving each? Speculation encouraged ... research studies wanted. Interesting that the 2015 nino is behind 97 and 82 in its values there... Our winters of 09 & 10 are clearly marching a very low nao, also 98 but not 62/3 one of the coldest in living memory!! I did find a paper offering a teleconnection between atlantic and pacific patterns...ill find it and post here too.... It's the 13-month running average that lowers 1962-63, which had very strong negative NAO values for Dec.-Feb. but positive before and after. In comparison, the winters of '98 and 2009-10 included many negative months both before and after Dec.-Feb. The big negative in 1968-69 included strong negatives from mid-year '68 through Mar. '69. The negative summer months were more equivalent to 2012 which was also in the middle of a low solar cycle. How were your summers in 1968 and in 2012? Summer 2015 also had negative NAO values. Augusts have tended to be negative over the last decade. We'll see what winter brings. The other interesting point is that the negative NAO in 1962-63 was on the descending flank of solar cycle 19, whereas more recent negative NAOs have been on the rising flank ... until now.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 28, 2017 16:56:15 GMT
I am hesitant to comment here because you guys are way ahead of me but here goes. I believe I've read that the NAO is a strongly atmosphere coupled phenomena and I believe ENSO is supposed to be also. Intuitively, it seems to me that the atmospheric effects (weather) will tend to have generally short time constants relative to the ocean water behavior. This makes me think that there can be quite a lag between solar cycle phenomena and it's effects on all of the varying interactive cycles we try to understand. This very weak cycle 24 is interesting because of all the parameters that are now being monitored. Perhaps we will see a more clear correlation with these parameters in the next few years. That said, I think AMO and PDO would be good to see with NAO and ENSO.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 28, 2017 17:30:42 GMT
BTW, ENSO looks like it got killed for a positive peak by Pinatubo's 1991 event.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 28, 2017 19:42:58 GMT
I am hesitant to comment here because you guys are way ahead of me but here goes. I believe I've read that the NAO is a strongly atmosphere coupled phenomena and I believe ENSO is supposed to be also. Intuitively, it seems to me that the atmospheric effects (weather) will tend to have generally short time constants relative to the ocean water behavior. This makes me think that there can be quite a lag between solar cycle phenomena and it's effects on all of the varying interactive cycles we try to understand. This very weak cycle 24 is interesting because of all the parameters that are now being monitored. Perhaps we will see a more clear correlation with these parameters in the next few years. That said, I think AMO and PDO would be good to see with NAO and ENSO. The claim is that the ENSO - the "O" stands for oscillation - is driven by the atmosphere. So the SOI shows the pressure changes between Tahiti and Darwin, leading to westerlies that blow warm water from around Indonesia toward Peru through the (in)famous Nino geographic boxes. So hot surface water is carried across and we have an El Nino. This is also marked by cloudiness in the area as large amounts of hot humid air is created in the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). So heat leaves the ocean with lots of water vapor (see other threads) and solar heating is reflected back by the raised albedo of the clouds. This is a huge ocean (and therefore Earth) cooling event for the duration of the El Nino. The La Nina is the reverse. Winds remain easterlies and it is claimed that these together with a Kelvin wave (slop of high sea level in the East to low sea level in the West) cause more upwelling of the Humboldt current that runs North along the West coast of South America and this cold water gets blown all the way to mid-Pacific or further. There is reduced cloud due to the cooler ocean temperatures and so the Sun heats the cold water for the duration of the La Nina. So La Nina's are a huge warming event for the Pacific and therefore the Earth - but not for the atmosphere. So now the question. Can the winds really drive the water from one side of the Pacific to the other as claimed or are they too a symptom of some other cause. The pressure changes of the SOI are real, but what causes them? I have hypothesized that the Earth's path through space in its orbit is being altered by the Sun's altered path due to the continual changes of the center of rotation of the Solar system - the barycenter. As these change the path of the Earth, the inertia/momentum of both the atmosphere and the oceans cause instability and 'slop' aka Kelvin waves along the equator. The Atlantic appears to get similar though less publicized effects. So to answer your question I think that the effect is a relatively immediate and caused by inertia of the atmosphere and oceans to changes in the Earth's velocity vector. The 'causes' claimed are actually effects. This may be why Theo has a different view of ENSO. Or to put words in his mouth - you ain't seen nothing yet.
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 28, 2017 20:06:10 GMT
Thanks Naut! I too believe that these phenomena are effects that are driven by other forces and that they are quite interactive. Your hypothesis is interesting. Certainly the binary "planet" system of the earth and moon alone, orbiting the sun in an ellipse with the earth tilted on a wobbling axis while moving through "space" is enough to boggle the mind when considering the forces and their interactions.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 28, 2017 23:38:38 GMT
Thanks Naut! I too believe that these phenomena are effects that are driven by other forces and that they are quite interactive. Your hypothesis is interesting. Certainly the binary "planet" system of the earth and moon alone, orbiting the sun in an ellipse with the earth tilted on a wobbling axis while moving through "space" is enough to boggle the mind when considering the forces and their interactions. Blue, there is no cure for it; I've been boggled for years. In the words of a famous man: There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know.
Nothing sums up climate science better? Occasionally we get the gist of Rumsfeld's quote in scientific papers .... but it's usually when money for more research is suggested.
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Post by nautonnier on Sept 29, 2017 2:41:50 GMT
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