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Post by glennkoks on Jan 12, 2018 0:51:27 GMT
You are not missing anything. It's utter nonsense. I've probably lived though 6 or more of these cold weather spells. Kind of like a 500 year flood. We have had 2 of them in the last 40 years. Extremely poor weather historians.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 12, 2018 2:18:02 GMT
Favourite saying: Worst in living memory is a poor metric wrt climate.
All my own work.
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 12, 2018 2:55:38 GMT
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Post by slh1234 on Jan 12, 2018 4:02:38 GMT
I've had to make an emergency trip to Oklahoma. It's been mostly cold, but this morning, it was about 57 until the cold front blew in. One local weatherman said the temperature dropped 30 degrees F in 9 minutes when the front blew in. I was visiting someone in the hospital during the time the front blew in (however long it was). I couldn't believe the temperature drop when I went back outside - wasn't dressed for that, and that wind. It was a good reminder of how fast the weather can change in this part of the world ... and made me ready to go back to California.
It's gonna be a cold one by local standards tonight.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 12, 2018 10:16:45 GMT
Standard winter (and spring) temperature gradient events in mid-Missouri. Yesterday it briefly (very) hit 61 F. Today it'll be 21 F. It went from 55 to 30 in about an hour. Ho hum. The old folks always said ... if ya don't like MO weather, just wait a minute and it'll change. In the spring, tornadoes run along those edges. When you live on edges, you get used to change. When I lived in Alaska and the Middle East, weather changes were more like watching paint dry ... very slowly.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 12, 2018 10:30:34 GMT
Standard winter (and spring) temperature gradient events in mid-Missouri. Yesterday it briefly (very) hit 61 F. Today it'll be 21 F. It went from 55 to 30 in about an hour. Ho hum. The old folks always said ... if ya don't like MO weather, just wait a minute and it'll change. In the spring, tornadoes run along those edges. Sounds like Melbourne, Australia but you are possibly a little cooler. MB. My three RAAF car pool buddies and I went for a beer (or three) to the Domain Hotel one afternoon. Wearing shorts, we went in, as I recall at 104F. Each of us bought a round and we exited at 76F. Cool change or warm change. Common in Victoria. Doug? In SEQ, it's different: It gets hot and it stays hot with the possible exception of abrupt cooling after a hail storm. PS: If you follow tennis, watch the weather reports during the up-coming Australian Open.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 12, 2018 11:02:14 GMT
Standard winter (and spring) temperature gradient events in mid-Missouri. Yesterday it briefly (very) hit 61 F. Today it'll be 21 F. It went from 55 to 30 in about an hour. Ho hum. The old folks always said ... if ya don't like MO weather, just wait a minute and it'll change. In the spring, tornadoes run along those edges. Sounds like Melbourne, Australia but you are possibly a little cooler. MB. My three RAAF car pool buddies and I went for a beer (or three) to the Domain Hotel one afternoon. Wearing shorts, we went in, as I recall at 104F. Each of us bought a round and we exited at 76F. Cool change or warm change. Common in Victoria. Doug? In SEQ, it's different: It gets hot and it stays hot with the possible exception of abrupt cooling after a hail storm. PS: If you follow tennis, watch the weather reports during the up-coming Australian Open. If it wasn't so bloody expensive, I've always thought that Melbourne would be an interesting place to 'hang out' for a while.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 12, 2018 11:13:44 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 12, 2018 18:22:07 GMT
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Post by glennkoks on Jan 12, 2018 23:38:29 GMT
Ok lets see how accurate the NWS is with forecasting the lows for my area over the next week or so. Experience tells me that they will miss by quite a few degrees but always on the warm side. The big question (if I am right is why)? If my hypothesis is verified and the National Weather Service consistently errs on the warm side is there a built in bias? Has anyone else noticed this?
Tonight official low forecast for Friendswood, TX is 31. Currently 49. We will see...
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 13, 2018 0:06:33 GMT
Ok lets see how accurate the NWS is with forecasting the lows for my area over the next week or so. Experience tells me that they will miss by quite a few degrees but always on the warm side. The big question (if I am right is why)? If my hypothesis is verified and the National Weather Service consistently errs on the warm side is there a built in bias? Has anyone else noticed this? Tonight official low forecast for Friendswood, TX is 31. Currently 49. We will see... That has been an ongoing issue.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 13, 2018 5:37:05 GMT
Ok lets see how accurate the NWS is with forecasting the lows for my area over the next week or so. Experience tells me that they will miss by quite a few degrees but always on the warm side. The big question (if I am right is why)? If my hypothesis is verified and the National Weather Service consistently errs on the warm side is there a built in bias? Has anyone else noticed this? Tonight official low forecast for Friendswood, TX is 31. Currently 49. We will see... Today's forecast here missed by a couple of degrees (C) ..... forecast 34C, now 36C. Tomorrow 24-37C. Wanna swap a little, Glenn?
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Post by Ratty on Jan 13, 2018 7:08:29 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jan 13, 2018 7:38:47 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 13, 2018 10:13:41 GMT
Ok lets see how accurate the NWS is with forecasting the lows for my area over the next week or so. Experience tells me that they will miss by quite a few degrees but always on the warm side. The big question (if I am right is why)? If my hypothesis is verified and the National Weather Service consistently errs on the warm side is there a built in bias? Has anyone else noticed this? Tonight official low forecast for Friendswood, TX is 31. Currently 49. We will see... The Met Office in UK crowed a fair amount that their weather model was the same software and parameters as their climate model so for forecasting they only looked a few days/weeks ahead for climate they ran the same model but for longer. (I presume you could tell when they had their climate model running as all the lights in Exeter dimmed). As the model was used as a _climate_ model it had 'forcing' due to CO2. This it was claimed was the reason that the forecasts were always biased warm was the presence in the parameters of that forcing.
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