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Changes
Sept 27, 2017 18:28:56 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Sept 27, 2017 18:28:56 GMT
Chatting to an older gentleman this evening who captained ferry boats in the adriatic most of his life. He stated that in the last 30 years, he could wake up and look outside and know the weather instantly for the first 15 years, but the next 15 something changed and its alot more erratic.
Has anyone else any experience based observations of this nature they can share??
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Post by missouriboy on Sept 27, 2017 21:52:57 GMT
I've moved around too much. I do remember that as a kid, winters were colder and snowier in Columbia. I have a vivid memory of snow being up to the base of my swing set seat. THAT was a big deal. Mid-50s I would guess. We rarely get much snow around here any more. That may change.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 27, 2017 22:15:11 GMT
A few things have changed weather wise for us in Southeast Texas over the last 40 years or so:
Winters are milder and Blue Norther's don't have the punch they did in the 1960's and 1970's. High temperatures in the summer have not changed much but night time temps don't get as low. It's not uncommon for us to have a low of 77 or 78 nowadays when it used to be in the lower to mid 70's. Houston has really grown, so much of this can probably be attributed to the Urban Heat Island effect from all the concrete poured over the last four decades.
In addition the local SST's are trending a little warmer. Most likely nothing at all to do with our burning of fossil fuels but everything to do with the positive phase of the AMO we have been in. Weather seems to have been less active over that period as well probably due to a jet that trended more east and west than north/south.
But the trend I have experienced has been over the last 40 years and not the last 15. But It seems this may all be changing and a return to the weather I grew up with may be in the works.
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Changes
Sept 27, 2017 23:44:32 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Sept 27, 2017 23:44:32 GMT
Springs have progressively gotten colder. My dad talks of being in the field in March at times. April 20th used to be the date that everyone was planting full steam ahead. Now it is May 5th.
Falls are not as extreme. But when winter hits it happens in a day. Used to be a gradual slide, now it is nice one day and the next day may have 15F for a high. It then stays cold.
Another item that has changed is lack of January Chinook. Been a long time since they have been consistent. Last winter we had one, but had been abt 15 years with none. I used to depend on the Chinook to haul spuds in open boxes 40 miles. Glad I changed my operation so I didn't have to depend on that event.
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Post by Ratty on Sept 28, 2017 0:39:48 GMT
Apart from a stint in Melbourne (1968-73), we've lived within 100ks of where I was born (27.4698° S, 153.0251° E). The biggest change is the lack of cyclones: In the 50s and 60s, we regularly experienced the tail end of tropical cyclones with the wind. Brother-in-law grew bananas on the side of a hill in Buderim and was regularly wiped out. Nowdays, we get the remnants as rain depressions, rarely windy. Temperatures are up - I think - but I can remember it being bloody hot in the 50s & 60s too. Can't say I notice anything wrt sea level. Local area is not a good indicator for change because we really have only two seasons: A long hot Summer is followed by a cooler period which some call "Winter." Winter is over with 38C predicted today, 35C tomorrow. Much is being made of today's heat: Ipswich to melt as city heads for record breaking heatIpswich is always hotter (or colder); it's about 70ks - as the crow flies - from the ocean.
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Post by nonentropic on Sept 28, 2017 1:23:28 GMT
Was in CA some weeks ago and a very stable high sat over the region and it had record or near high temperatures. Some days later it moved and the mercury went south 15C.
This is weather and we all know there has been a lift in the temperature of the world some say 1C and the records will thus be broken both up and down but more usually up. This is statistical stuff MB can explain and possibly explain this much better.
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Post by icefisher on Sept 28, 2017 7:24:48 GMT
Was in CA some weeks ago and a very stable high sat over the region and it had record or near high temperatures. Some days later it moved and the mercury went south 15C. This is weather and we all know there has been a lift in the temperature of the world some say 1C and the records will thus be broken both up and down but more usually up. This is statistical stuff MB can explain and possibly explain this much better. thats normal when in a warm ENSO cycle. Just a few years ago record cold temperatures were out stripping record warms by a wide margin.
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Post by glennkoks on Sept 30, 2017 4:09:19 GMT
Memory is a poor data set. We tend to remember the extremes and forget the boring. So i did some research. Five of the top ten coldest winters in my neck of the woods happened in the 1970's. 1970, 1976, 1977, 1978 and 1979 rank in the top ten coldest winters for Southeast Texas. With that being said I do not think these winters were cold for Southeast Texas alone. Cold air can't get down here without running over a few other states first. So is it not strange that so many data sets are from 1980 to present? Is it a coincidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation flipped from negative to positive at about this time? www.weather.gov/hgx/
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Post by Ratty on Sept 30, 2017 9:31:13 GMT
Memory is a poor data set. We tend to remember the extremes and forget the boring. So i did some research. Five of the top ten coldest winters in my neck of the woods happened in the 1970's. 1970, 1976, 1977, 1978 and 1979 rank in the top ten coldest winters for Southeast Texas. With that being said I do not think these winters were cold for Southeast Texas alone. Cold air can't get down here without running over a few other states first. So is it not strange that so many data sets are from 1980 to present? Is it a coincidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation flipped from negative to positive at about this time? www.weather.gov/hgx/Might be interesting to look at tornadoes, hurricanes, drought, flood, fire, etc stats for those years?
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Post by blustnmtn on Sept 30, 2017 11:21:33 GMT
Memory is a poor data set. We tend to remember the extremes and forget the boring. So i did some research. Five of the top ten coldest winters in my neck of the woods happened in the 1970's. 1970, 1976, 1977, 1978 and 1979 rank in the top ten coldest winters for Southeast Texas. With that being said I do not think these winters were cold for Southeast Texas alone. Cold air can't get down here without running over a few other states first. So is it not strange that so many data sets are from 1980 to present? Is it a coincidence that the North Atlantic Oscillation flipped from negative to positive at about this time? www.weather.gov/hgx/As Tony Heller documents quite well, newspapers were regularly producing articles by “climatologists” warning of a possible returning ice age in the ‘70s. The fact is that we ARE in and never left the ice age. We’re on the latter part of a positive alternation and that won’t last no matter what humans do or say.
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