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ENSO 2018
Jul 7, 2018 21:51:46 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 7, 2018 21:51:46 GMT
author=" acidohm"]Why argue, if this person feels NOAA forecasts are good, he is 100% delusional 😉🤣[/quote]Acidohm, here is a link to the NOAA article on ENSO which touts their expertise of accurately predicting ENSO several seasons in advance. If you scroll down through the comments section, you'll see my comments ( first one on Fri, 2018-06-29 18:12) and the replies. After seeing the responses I'm taking your advice, why argue any further. www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell[/quote] I row with people all the time on FB. Generally it goes like this, if I condense it greatly... -some particularly alarming statistic, e.g., a specific location with temperature. -i repost with another location with lower then av temperature -insult followed by insult -i ask if OP can describe the mechanics of co2 warming effect - far more vulgar insult, potentially banned from page. Every single time....in fact I lie, once someone clearly stated their case with reasoning. I immediately thanked them. I think Missouri hit nail on head above....
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ENSO 2018
Jul 7, 2018 21:58:35 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 7, 2018 21:58:35 GMT
Duwayne....I kinda see where they're coming from regarding predictability in certain seasons, i reckon that's a thing. However, they will call it Nino asap as I don't think they're sceptics (realists?? 🤔) they did balls up the Nina forecast. To say their still right with 25% Ok, but how many times is the larger % of their forecast correct??? Should be more often......
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 8, 2018 11:23:29 GMT
Duwayne....I kinda see where they're coming from regarding predictability in certain seasons, i reckon that's a thing. However, they will call it Nino asap as I don't think they're sceptics (realists?? 🤔) they did balls up the Nina forecast. To say their still right with 25% Ok, but how many times is the larger % of their forecast correct??? Should be more often...... In the world of government bureaucracy, Newton's 1st law of wing walking applies. "Never let loose of what you've got a hold of until you've got a hold of something else." The science of artful dodging that allows you to claim that you knew it all along. Where a Joe Bastardi jumps in, the government bureaucrat hides behind a curtain of probabilistic statistics. You're in danger of becoming a Southerner Acid, using a word like "reckon". Welcome.
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Post by Ratty on Jul 8, 2018 11:43:10 GMT
[ Snip ] You're in danger of becoming a Southerner Acid, using a word like "reckon". Welcome. .... but not as Southern as moi.
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ENSO 2018
Jul 8, 2018 13:45:28 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jul 8, 2018 13:45:28 GMT
[ Snip ] You're in danger of becoming a Southerner Acid, using a word like "reckon". Welcome. .... but not as Southern as moi. I thought the term was upside down 🤔
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Post by acidohm on Jul 8, 2018 13:46:34 GMT
Duwayne....I kinda see where they're coming from regarding predictability in certain seasons, i reckon that's a thing. However, they will call it Nino asap as I don't think they're sceptics (realists?? 🤔) they did balls up the Nina forecast. To say their still right with 25% Ok, but how many times is the larger % of their forecast correct??? Should be more often...... In the world of government bureaucracy, Newton's 1st law of wing walking applies. "Never let loose of what you've got a hold of until you've got a hold of something else." The science of artful dodging that allows you to claim that you knew it all along. Where a Joe Bastardi jumps in, the government bureaucrat hides behind a curtain of probabilistic statistics. You're in danger of becoming a Southerner Acid, using a word like "reckon". Welcome. Trying 🤣🤣
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 8, 2018 14:24:10 GMT
Duwayne....I kinda see where they're coming from regarding predictability in certain seasons, i reckon that's a thing. However, they will call it Nino asap as I don't think they're sceptics (realists?? 🤔) they did balls up the Nina forecast. To say their still right with 25% Ok, but how many times is the larger % of their forecast correct??? Should be more often...... In the world of government bureaucracy, Newton's 1st law of wing walking applies. "Never let loose of what you've got a hold of until you've got a hold of something else." The science of artful dodging that allows you to claim that you knew it all along. Where a Joe Bastardi jumps in, the government bureaucrat hides behind a curtain of probabilistic statistics. You're in danger of becoming a Southerner Acid, using a word like "reckon". Welcome. Newton's 1st law of wing walking applies. "Never let loose of what you've got a hold of until you've got a hold of something else."Reminds me of a Douglas Adams quote... "My absolute favourite piece of information is the fact that young sloths are so inept that they frequently grab their own arms and legs instead of tree limbs, and fall out of trees." Sloth == bureaucratic climate 'scientist' ?
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 16, 2018 23:51:02 GMT
ARGO Now Updated Through June 2018 - The Western Pacific Battery May Be Discharging Looking for the heart of the Pacific heat engine. Obviously it's the Western Warm Pool. This chart is from data tabulated at a depth of 100-300 meters. Seems that it shows trends better than the choppy SST. The west shows the negative anamolies associated with El Nino pulses (and likely other directions) in 2007, 2010 & 2015-16, and large jumps in temperature in 2008 and 2011-12. Some may be recycled surface water from the 2009-10 eastern pulse. Some of it may be solar input and perhaps there are geothermal pulses. But there is a downward trend from 2008 to present. Solar may be better displayed in NINO areas 4 and 3 (perhaps due to their lower cloud cover), which show a general downward trend to solar minimum in 2009-10, followed by increase in the first half of SC24. What is gonna heat the western Warm Pool in the solar minimum ahead? Will we get another geothermal pulse? Will Michael Mann conjure a warm rabbit out of his hat? Perhaps Ratty's regurgitated canary (sorry Ratty)?
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 17, 2018 12:33:06 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jul 17, 2018 12:42:38 GMT
[ Snip ] Perhaps Ratty's regurgitated canary (sorry Ratty)? I'm afraid the warm pool created by the decaying canary and snake is long gone, although it did help to bring us out of the 70s' ice age scare.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 19, 2018 13:11:35 GMT
The normal discussion of an El Nino is that the anomalously hotter water in the 'West Pacific Warm Pool' around Indonesia causes westerly winds that blow the warm water across to the eastern Pacific. It would appear that the West Pacific doesn't have an anomalously warm pool at the moment. Without the convection over that warm pool there will be no westerlies and thus no El Nino. This is regardless of what happens in the small Nino box in the equatorial Pacific. Indeed the Kuroshio current shows hot flowing past Japan, and this is normally forced by the La Nina current - which still seems to extend from the Humboldt upwelling alongside Peru out almost into the western Pacific. Are these currents getting a little less ordered in the same way that the North Atlantic Drift seems to be less than it was?
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 5, 2018 13:33:28 GMT
ARGO Says Western Pacific Warm Pool Not Very Warm at Depths 0f 100-300m and 0-100m Jan., 2004 - June, 2018 Can this Support Much of an El Nino? Not much warm water at depth. Chart 1 - Temperature Deviation From Monthly Mean at 100-300 meters. Chart 2 - Temperature Deviation From Monthly Mean at 0-100 meters.
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ENSO 2018
Aug 5, 2018 13:51:33 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Aug 5, 2018 13:51:33 GMT
It may well fizzle.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 5, 2018 18:15:10 GMT
Plays into Astros forecast really. And, as usual, NOAA....wrong (though of course they'll say they only forecast 65%, but why is it the other smaller percentage 100% of the time....🤔)
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Post by Ratty on Aug 6, 2018 0:35:14 GMT
My weather vocabulary is forever expanding.
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