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Post by Ratty on Aug 14, 2018 22:57:44 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 15, 2018 20:14:58 GMT
Revisiting the La Nina Pump Article wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/16/the-la-nina-pump/I liked Willis Eschenbach's chart, so I am copying it and citing it. Besides the overall downward trend, I note a similarity in the 5-year run-up to maximum in Solar cycles 23 and 24, followed by a down-cycle series of 'pump' events (as per article) staged at 2, 2 and 3 year intervals for Solar Cycle 23. Solar Cycle 24 has had a 5-year run-up followed by one 2016 pump event. Two year separation gives us another one the end of 2018? ... perhaps following Big Joe's small Modoki? I believe that Astro forecasted the Big Nina circa 2021-22? Stepping down the discharge ladder? Both the 2007 and 2010 events were rather cold but short, and separated by a significant rebound. Will 2018-19 be cold, longer and without any significant rebound? Bets are being taken now. Odds yet to be established.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 16, 2018 13:18:36 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 16, 2018 19:03:56 GMT
It may be a cold modoki. Any analogs for this? For which we have data? Amazing how fast heat can disappear? Watch out for falling warmists.
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ENSO 2018
Aug 16, 2018 19:11:44 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Aug 16, 2018 19:11:44 GMT
It may be a cold modoki. Any analogs for this? For which we have data? Amazing how fast heat can disappear? There's still subsurface warmth, but it just hasn't consolidated and upwelled. Cooler pockets are now evident beneath 3.4.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 16, 2018 20:23:27 GMT
It may be a cold modoki. Any analogs for this? For which we have data? Amazing how fast heat can disappear? There's still subsurface warmth, but it just hasn't consolidated and upwelled. Cooler pockets are now evident beneath 3.4. IMO, its very difficult to gain analogs for anything happening in the ocean right now. Thats because it may not have happened since the 1950's. First shocker was the El Nino of 2014,15, 16. Brought about changes very similar to the first El Nino I experienced in 1957,58. But there isn't a lot of data on that I have been able to find until satellites. Interest in ENSO began in the 80's and didn't hit a fever pitch until post 1998 El Nino. Most of the pre-1980 stuff was built on a variety of sources. Uh Models. I first took an interest in fishing in the 1950's. We are told the ocean was much cooler than today. But it was the 2015 El Nino that brought an abundance of hammerhead sharks into socal. I remember fishing for them in the 1950's but hardly ever seeing one from 1960 until recently. Sardines disappeared in the 1950's. A lot of it was attributed to overfishing. Sardines sprung back in the 1990's and in the past few years have greatly declined in abundance so much they are closing fisheries for it again. That is despite what was believed to be excellent management over the past 3 decades. For the past couple of decades colder water surf species not abundant during the 70's through 90's have began to become a large portion of the catch. In almost every measure of experience I feel deja vu with the 1950's. What came after the 50's was an ocean cooling of the 60's and 70's. So my suggestion would be to look at 1950's data. What are you looking at to see cooler subsurface pockets now?
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ENSO 2018
Aug 16, 2018 21:21:08 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Aug 16, 2018 21:21:08 GMT
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
It's a pdf file that gets updated once a week. I find it impossible to copy links for these things on my phone, hopefully the title will be enough for Google to bring the link up??
- it is -
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Post by icefisher on Aug 16, 2018 21:29:59 GMT
ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions It's a pdf file that gets updated once a week. I find it impossible to copy links for these things on my phone, hopefully the title will be enough for Google to bring the link up?? - it is - Thats what I follow. I was merely confused by your use of plural in "pockets". I sort of see it as one small pocket that has been there since the 1st of August. I also like to watch for those things and see if they grow or fade away.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 17, 2018 0:05:31 GMT
[ Snip ] Watch out for falling warmists. [ Snip ] The iguanas will break their falls.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 22, 2018 22:35:08 GMT
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Post by icefisher on Aug 23, 2018 0:43:39 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 23, 2018 1:33:55 GMT
No need to get personal .....
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 23, 2018 4:31:36 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Sept 1, 2018 16:27:29 GMT
On June 11, I posted the following….. “NOAA's prediction totally missed the (2017-2018) La Nina that was as I predicted. (In fact, they had predicted an El Nino.) We are now at the end of that prediction, so let me extend the prediction through the end of 2018. Like NOAA's current prediction, my model says the ONI’s will increase toward El Nino levels (ONI of 0.5) over the next several weeks. But while NOAA says the El Nino levels will hold through the end of 2018, I see a peak in late August/ early September and a decline lasting through year end.” The ONI climbed to 0.5 as both NOAA and I had foreseen. There has been a recent decline. But I’ve decided to drop my prediction of a decline through the end of 2018 based on further evidence. That evidence is an insistence by Joe Bastardi in his recent daily updates that an El Nino is coming this year and I don’t like to be on the opposite side of Bastardi’s predictions. So I’m going to stand aside and see what happens.
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ENSO 2018
Sept 1, 2018 19:17:32 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Sept 1, 2018 19:17:32 GMT
On June 11, I posted the following….. “NOAA's prediction totally missed the (2017-2018) La Nina that was as I predicted. (In fact, they had predicted an El Nino.) We are now at the end of that prediction, so let me extend the prediction through the end of 2018. Like NOAA's current prediction, my model says the ONI’s will increase toward El Nino levels (ONI of 0.5) over the next several weeks. But while NOAA says the El Nino levels will hold through the end of 2018, I see a peak in late August/ early September and a decline lasting through year end.” The ONI climbed to 0.5 as both NOAA and I had foreseen. There has been a recent decline. But I’ve decided to drop my prediction of a decline through the end of 2018 based on further evidence. That evidence is an insistence by Joe Bastardi in his recent daily updates that an El Nino is coming this year and I don’t like to be on the opposite side of Bastardi’s predictions. So I’m going to stand aside and see what happens. I think you should stick to your guns Duwayne, but you have explained it fairly.
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