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ENSO 2018
Nov 24, 2018 23:58:36 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Nov 24, 2018 23:58:36 GMT
Pressure causes winds Naut surely?? I give you a minor convective eddy rising from the surface of the sea, the cooler drier air is drawn in to replace the rising warm air is warmed and rises and more cooler drier air is drawn in to replace the rising warm air ... as the convective current builds there is a Coriolis effect and the winds start to circle the updraft.... The updraft has caused a drop in pressure into which the drier air is drawn. Eventually it can be given a number and then a name and destroy whole cities. I see what your saying, however, an updraft creates low pressure, a downdraft high pressure... Maybe a chicken and egg scenario....unless we define wind as a horizontal surface phenomena š¤
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ENSO 2018
Nov 25, 2018 4:51:03 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 25, 2018 4:51:03 GMT
Depends on how you look at it.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 27, 2018 5:56:26 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 27, 2018 13:11:34 GMT
The winds do too. Now look at the winds from surface upward in the North Atlantic that seems to be a little excitement coming UK's way.
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ENSO 2018
Nov 27, 2018 16:51:11 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Nov 27, 2018 16:51:11 GMT
The winds do too. Now look at the winds from surface upward in the North Atlantic that seems to be a little excitement coming UK's way. Yes....atlantic is winning, very wet here right now...still chilly tho.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 27, 2018 17:36:52 GMT
The winds do too. Now look at the winds from surface upward in the North Atlantic that seems to be a little excitement coming UK's way. Yes....atlantic is winning, very wet here right now...still chilly tho. That's Returning Polar Maritime for you - cool and very wet. If you are really lucky you could get gale force sleet
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ENSO 2018
Nov 27, 2018 21:25:36 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Nov 27, 2018 21:25:36 GMT
Yes....atlantic is winning, very wet here right now...still chilly tho. That's Returning Polar Maritime for you - cool and very wet. If you are really lucky you could get gale force sleet Woohoo....I'll count my blessings Naut!!š
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 28, 2018 1:48:50 GMT
That's Returning Polar Maritime for you - cool and very wet. If you are really lucky you could get gale force sleet Woohoo....I'll count my blessings Naut!!š If you can hold up one hand and still count five, you're OK.
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Post by acidohm on Nov 28, 2018 5:39:25 GMT
Woohoo....I'll count my blessings Naut!!š If you can hold up one hand and still count five, you're OK.Ā Ā Ā Ā Well i can get to 5 now, couple of months ago it seemed i had no fingers, but thats life i guess š
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Post by Ratty on Nov 28, 2018 7:06:19 GMT
If you can hold up one hand and still count five, you're OK. Well i can get to 5 now, couple of months ago it seemed i had no fingers, but thats life i guess š Speaking of fingers, a friend fell on his driveway, chasing his dog; this is the 'nicer' of the two photos he sent me: The other is one of the 'cannot unsee' shots.
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 28, 2018 7:43:02 GMT
Well i can get to 5 now, couple of months ago it seemed i had no fingers, but thats life i guess š Speaking of fingers, a friend fell on his driveway, chasing his dog; this is the 'nicer' of the two photos he sent me: The other is one of the 'cannot unsee' shots. Is that the selfie right before the orthopedic surgeon visit?
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Post by Ratty on Dec 17, 2018 22:21:00 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Jan 15, 2019 22:05:51 GMT
I want to make this one final post on the 2018 ENSO thread explaining my 2018 prediction and cancellation thereof.
Based on my success in 2017 of correctly predicting the La Nina while NOAA incorrectly predicted an El Nino, I predicted in early 2018 that by mid-2018 we would see ONIs in the El Nino range (over 0.5), but the ONIās would not remain sufficiently elevated over time to meet the 5-month+ definition of an El Nino. Meanwhile NOAA was predicting an El Nino.
The ONIs proceeded upward in mid-2018 as predicted but then Joe Bastardi pointed out that it was a Modoki El Nino that was forming. In reading about Modoki El Ninoās I found that the Japanese word Modoki means āfakeā. A Modoki El Nino shows the prescribed elevated temperature averages in NINO3.4 like an El Nino, but these elevated temperatures arenāt distributed like a ārealā El Nino and the other features donāt look like El Ninos. On learning that a fake El Nino may occur which might meet one definition of an El Nino, I cancelled my prediction.
This weekās ONI was down to 0.4, so thereās a reasonable possibility the minimums for an El Nino will not be met by this Modoki El Nino. But, either way, itās not going on my score card since I cancelled my prediction in mid-year 2018.
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ENSO 2018
Jan 18, 2019 17:59:41 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jan 18, 2019 17:59:41 GMT
I want to make this one final post on the 2018 ENSO thread explaining my 2018 prediction and cancellation thereof. Based on my success in 2017 of correctly predicting the La Nina while NOAA incorrectly predicted an El Nino, I predicted in early 2018 that by mid-2018 we would see ONIs in the El Nino range (over 0.5), but the ONIās would not remain sufficiently elevated over time to meet the 5-month+ definition of an El Nino. Meanwhile NOAA was predicting an El Nino. The ONIs proceeded upward in mid-2018 as predicted but then Joe Bastardi pointed out that it was a Modoki El Nino that was forming. In reading about Modoki El Ninoās I found that the Japanese word Modoki means āfakeā. A Modoki El Nino shows the prescribed elevated temperature averages in NINO3.4 like an El Nino, but these elevated temperatures arenāt distributed like a ārealā El Nino and the other features donāt look like El Ninos. On learning that a fake El Nino may occur which might meet one definition of an El Nino, I cancelled my prediction. This weekās ONI was down to 0.4, so thereās a reasonable possibility the minimums for an El Nino will not be met by this Modoki El Nino. But, either way, itās not going on my score card since I cancelled my prediction in mid-year 2018. Sounds fair Duwayne, i dont even see a modoki nino tbh....did for about a week but thats a poor effort!
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