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Post by nautonnier on Nov 11, 2018 13:43:28 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Nov 20, 2018 23:27:50 GMT
21 November 2018 - Cluster's Last Stand?
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Post by sigurdur on Nov 21, 2018 16:36:28 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Nov 21, 2018 17:34:31 GMT
When they pry that model from my cold dead hands? Apologies to Charlton Heston.
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Post by nautonnier on Nov 24, 2018 9:28:16 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Dec 5, 2018 8:35:02 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 5, 2018 11:16:44 GMT
That is another example of the research paper where we can do maths on figures and come up with some calculated numbers to a surprising number of decimal places. But we have no understanding of the problem; which our paper demonstrates without our realizing it. There are more people living in hurricane prone areas. Even in the years since Hurricane Andrew in Florida entire new towns with all the fixings schools, hospitals even universities have been built. This has been repeated in all the hurricane prone areas of the USA. So there is more of a target. In those communities in some states, where uncontrolled building in coastal areas has been allowed with no attention to weather proofing or building codes - as in New Jersey, a storm that wouldn't have excited any attention in Florida is a major disaster. Even in Florida a hurricane hitting an area where the building codes are more relaxed and which is an older area damage can be extensive. BUT if built correctly even major storms are survivable as this house showed in Mexico Beach which survived Hurricane Michael close to Cat 4 at landfall weather.com/news/news/2018-10-16-mexico-beach-home-survives-hurricane-michael Even here with all houses to 'above Andrew' codes, a Cat 2 hurricane immediately over the top caused almost no damage apart from blowing down the occasional palm tree. So the paper has left out: - Hugely increased populations generally and especially in hurricane prone States and areas of those States such as shore lines. - Building codes for cheapness rather than survivability - if all the houses in Mexico Beach, FL had been built to the code of the one that survived - it would not have made any real headlines. But the cost of buildings would have been greater. In short there are so many inter-related variables outside just insurance costs that this kind of paper is really not worth the effort. It certainly doesn't say anything about land-falling hurricane strengths As I have said before the story: "The Three Little Pigs" is a good allegory for hurricane preparedness with the Wolf being the hurricane. If you build the house right the hurricane can huff and puff but not blow the house down.
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Post by nautonnier on Dec 6, 2018 12:30:14 GMT
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Post by sigurdur on Jan 28, 2019 13:32:21 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jan 29, 2019 0:21:43 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 29, 2019 2:07:04 GMT
I think I'll join you in a fifth. After that, no worries.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 29, 2019 11:49:45 GMT
I think I'll join you in a fifth. After that, no worries. Hic.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 29, 2019 15:50:35 GMT
I think I'll join you in a fifth. After that, no worries. Tatachilla Hic. You stole his bottle.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 29, 2019 21:45:57 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 29, 2019 21:57:58 GMT
I think I'll join you in a fifth. After that, no worries. Hic. Reminds me of the Australian Bordeaux label printed on the bottom "Beware Cheap French Imitations"
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