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Post by nautonnier on Jun 2, 2018 14:41:12 GMT
Any statisticians out there? What is a near-average probability? That depends if you are talking to a frequentist statistician, a Bayesian statistician or, a climate 'scientist'
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Post by acidohm on Jun 2, 2018 16:38:50 GMT
Any statisticians out there? What is a near-average probability? That depends if you are talking to a frequentist statistician, a Bayesian statistician or, a climate 'scientist' I'm not a statistician or a climate fudgist....so I'm saying no landfall. None.
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Post by blustnmtn on Jun 2, 2018 20:01:38 GMT
That depends if you are talking to a frequentist statistician, a Bayesian statistician or, a climate 'scientist' I'm not a statistician or a climate fudgist....so I'm saying no landfall. None. I applaud your confidence Acid! No equivocation. None. 😎
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Post by sigurdur on Jun 3, 2018 1:13:51 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Jun 7, 2018 22:37:36 GMT
Jeff Masters having an each way bet? Observed Slowdown in Tropical Cyclone Motion May Portend More Harvey-Like RainstormsThe forward speed of tropical cyclones (which includes all hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions) has decreased globally by about 10% since 1949, according to a paper published in Nature on Wednesday by University of Wisconsin hurricane scientist Dr. Jim Kossin. As a result of their slower forward motion, these storms are now more likely to drop heavier rains, increasing their flood risk. Most significantly, the study reported a 20% slow-down in storm translation speed over land for Atlantic storms, a 30% slow-down over land for Northwest Pacific storms, and a 19% slow-down over land for storms affecting the Australia region. A storm moving 20% slower over land has the opportunity to dump up to 20% more rain over land, increasing the flood risk for flood defense systems designed for a 20th Century climate with less extreme precipitation events. The paper concluded that “these trends have almost certainly increased local rainfall totals in these regions.” Another increased hazard slower storms bring is increased wind damage, due to an increase in the duration of damaging winds structures are exposed to.
The slow-down was observed in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and in every ocean basin except the North Indian Ocean. Tropical cyclones affecting land areas in the Eastern Pacific, Northern Indian Ocean, and western South Indian Ocean showed no significant trends in translation speed while they were over land.
Etc .........
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 8, 2018 12:56:58 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jun 9, 2018 19:28:55 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 13, 2018 11:57:36 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jun 28, 2018 10:42:13 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 2, 2018 16:23:21 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 2, 2018 18:48:01 GMT
This could ruin Acidohm’s unequivocal forecast.
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Post by acidohm on Jul 2, 2018 20:35:12 GMT
This could ruin Acidohm’s unequivocal forecast. Well.....I can unequivocally state I have absolutely none of the expertise, experience, knowledge or nouse to challenge anything joe B says.... Can I retrospectively change my previous statement to "no hurricane will form off the coast of Africa, sweep across the atlantic and make landfall on the US??? mmmmh, maybe I should just get a backbone.....
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 2, 2018 21:08:22 GMT
Good news for some of us
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Post by acidohm on Jul 3, 2018 12:22:54 GMT
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 3, 2018 12:45:42 GMT
This could ruin Acidohm’s unequivocal forecast. Well.....I can unequivocally state I have absolutely none of the expertise, experience, knowledge or nouse to challenge anything joe B says.... Can I retrospectively change my previous statement to "no hurricane will form off the coast of Africa, sweep across the atlantic and make landfall on the US??? mmmmh, maybe I should just get a backbone..... I think you should stand firm. You still might be right and we will all hail you as a sage If your wrong...….
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