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Post by Ratty on Jan 17, 2019 10:17:17 GMT
Good to see ya back Acid. We missed ya. Bearer of good news as usual I see. Big Joe doesn't have much faith in the CFS it seems, except in the end game when all other options are exhausted. Cheers MoBoy 😊😊 CFS is on crack, i never look at it, GFS is a petulant teen does nothing its told to till the last minute, ECM is an old granny, plodding along real steady with a glint of wisdom in its eye, but cant see very far 😉 Ever thought about writing poetry, Acid?
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 17, 2019 11:25:09 GMT
Good to see ya back Acid. We missed ya. Bearer of good news as usual I see. Big Joe doesn't have much faith in the CFS it seems, except in the end game when all other options are exhausted. Good to see you Acid!
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Post by acidohm on Jan 17, 2019 12:01:02 GMT
Cheers MoBoy 😊😊 CFS is on crack, i never look at it, GFS is a petulant teen does nothing its told to till the last minute, ECM is an old granny, plodding along real steady with a glint of wisdom in its eye, but cant see very far 😉 Ever thought about writing poetry, Acid? Maybe in 1-2 weeks when im snowed in and cant do anything ill find time 😉
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Post by acidohm on Jan 17, 2019 12:02:03 GMT
Good to see ya back Acid. We missed ya. Bearer of good news as usual I see. Big Joe doesn't have much faith in the CFS it seems, except in the end game when all other options are exhausted. Good to see you Acid! Hi Blu 😊 had my head in forecasting text books!
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Post by blustnmtn on Jan 17, 2019 13:30:52 GMT
Hi Blu 😊 had my head in forecasting text books! That's better than frozen pipes!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 17, 2019 19:57:07 GMT
Hi Blu 😊 had my head in forecasting text books! That's better than frozen pipes! May not pay as well though ... unless you have a model with a passport into that nether region where they keep the gold and the sun don't shine.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 18, 2019 17:44:00 GMT
Every model has come into agreement today, thursday sees a trough deepen right down into the med, heights increase across the top of scandinavia to Greenland and in time, most of the upper lattitude airmass goes against the zonal flow.
Of course we're in the mind of gfs here, but it seems to be finally responding to the effects of ssw.....
IF this comes of, itll be a historical period of weather. Will it, wont it, place your bets now!
Thursday is really pretty certain however, snow for many parts of Europe, very chilly.
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Post by acidohm on Jan 18, 2019 17:55:29 GMT
Hi Blu 😊 had my head in forecasting text books! That's better than frozen pipes! Yes, but that may be what it comes too!
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2019 18:51:32 GMT
Ever thought about writing poetry, Acid? Maybe in 1-2 weeks when im snowed in and cant do anything ill find time 😉 The Homer of climate. We've been needing one.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2019 19:05:19 GMT
Every model has come into agreement today, thursday sees a trough deepen right down into the med, heights increase across the top of scandinavia to Greenland and in time, most of the upper lattitude airmass goes against the zonal flow. Of course we're in the mind of gfs here, but it seems to be finally responding to the effects of ssw..... IF this comes of, itll be a historical period of weather. Will it, wont it, place your bets now! Thursday is really pretty certain however, snow for many parts of Europe, very chilly. Gasprom will be counting their profits ... and Demonocrats will be screaming that Trump did it. Things just keep getting weirder and weirder as GDS deepens.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 18, 2019 23:35:32 GMT
Every model has come into agreement today, thursday sees a trough deepen right down into the med, heights increase across the top of scandinavia to Greenland and in time, most of the upper lattitude airmass goes against the zonal flow. Of course we're in the mind of gfs here, but it seems to be finally responding to the effects of ssw..... IF this comes of, itll be a historical period of weather. Will it, wont it, place your bets now! Thursday is really pretty certain however, snow for many parts of Europe, very chilly. If this holds out to day 6, Italy and the Balkans are just gonna get trashed ... again. www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=12&code=0&mode=2&carte=1
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Post by acidohm on Jan 18, 2019 23:51:38 GMT
Every model has come into agreement today, thursday sees a trough deepen right down into the med, heights increase across the top of scandinavia to Greenland and in time, most of the upper lattitude airmass goes against the zonal flow. Of course we're in the mind of gfs here, but it seems to be finally responding to the effects of ssw..... IF this comes of, itll be a historical period of weather. Will it, wont it, place your bets now! Thursday is really pretty certain however, snow for many parts of Europe, very chilly. If this holds out to day 6, Italy and the Balkans are just gonna get trashed ... again. www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=12&code=0&mode=2&carte=1Alot of chat how in cycle 23, winter got interesting the year AFTER minimum. Here we are effectively a year before/at minimum with big ssw in consecutive winters..... Next year??? Earlier winter???
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 19, 2019 1:56:31 GMT
Alot of chat how in cycle 23, winter got interesting the year AFTER minimum. Here we are effectively a year before/at minimum with big ssw in consecutive winters..... Next year??? Earlier winter??? I suppose we need a winters time series by intensity and various other factors such as SSW. Joe was mentioning SSW winters the other day which included I think ... 64-65, mid 80s and perhaps another I forgot ... and I can't find the back issues. Wasn't today. Couldn't immediately find a digital time series. Could be solid bad and worse winters for the next 2 or 3 from Nov. to Apr. Any analogs? This article has a chart of SSWs from 1959 to 2001. journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JAS2792.1Sure looks like cold winters might have their share. Fast look only.
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 19, 2019 2:51:50 GMT
The heavier snow on this one is sliding just north of us. On its way to you Blu. No need to thank me.
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Post by Ratty on Jan 19, 2019 7:24:40 GMT
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