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Post by douglavers on Aug 19, 2018 21:16:37 GMT
Mondeoman
Its a little strange. Almost all of NSW is drought declared, but for the second year running Alpine snow levels are good to excellent.
It seems the Alps are high enough to wring out what little moisture is around.
Also, the met office mentioned that there has been an absence of [warm] rain events from the North, which are good at melting snow.
As I mentioned elsewhere, I think there has been a step change in planetary weather, so far not very obvious.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 19, 2018 23:53:28 GMT
6degC in Melbourne with rain & hail showers. Snow on the nearby hills. Most of the higher ski resorts have 2 metres+ of snow.[40 cms last night, and still falling] I need some global warming. We are at 38 N versus your 37 S and here, 6C would be considered a good winter day. Has your ocean gone cold on you? Our ocean is 600 miles south.
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Post by Ratty on Aug 20, 2018 0:36:35 GMT
6degC in Melbourne with rain & hail showers. Snow on the nearby hills. Most of the higher ski resorts have 2 metres+ of snow.[40 cms last night, and still falling] I need some global warming. We are at 38 N versus your 37 S and here, 6C would be considered a good winter day. Has your ocean gone cold on you? Our ocean is 600 miles south. There's your answer. Melbourne, Victoria, Australia: Averages
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Post by Ratty on Aug 20, 2018 0:57:11 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 20, 2018 2:56:43 GMT
I might point out that 2.4 C is not even freezing. Only Floridians would get very excited about that.
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 20, 2018 6:28:32 GMT
I might point out that 2.4 C is not even freezing. Only Floridians would get very excited about that. Trying to remain unexcited However, I did see a forecast that even Central Florida could see snow events this winter. If that occurred it would be interesting to see how the press would treat it. I suspect Mann et al would say that it was just as their models predicted.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 20, 2018 17:59:40 GMT
I might point out that 2.4 C is not even freezing. Only Floridians would get very excited about that. Trying to remain unexcited However, I did see a forecast that even Central Florida could see snow events this winter. If that occurred it would be interesting to see how the press would treat it. I suspect Mann et al would say that it was just as their models predicted. Yeah it hasn't snowed in Orlando since 1977 pretty much at the bottom of the last cool period.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 20, 2018 21:55:21 GMT
I might point out that 2.4 C is not even freezing. Only Floridians would get very excited about that. Trying to remain unexcited However, I did see a forecast that even Central Florida could see snow events this winter. If that occurred it would be interesting to see how the press would treat it. I suspect Mann et al would say that it was just as their models predicted. They are already setting the stage for those arguments. Already the low pressure gradient from south to north ... and thus the loopy jet ... are being blamed on CO2. Circulation stalling has long been a concern of climate scientists, though most previous studies have looked at winter patterns. The new paper reviews research on summer trends, where it says there is mounting evidence of planetary wind systems – both low-level storm tracks and higher waves in the troposphere – losing their ability to shift the weather.
One cause is a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and Equator as a result of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The far north of the Earth is warming two to four times faster than the global average, says the paper, which means there is a declining temperature gap with the central belt of the planet. As this ramp flattens, winds struggle to build up sufficient energy and speed to push around pressure systems in the area between them. www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/20/summer-weather-is-getting-stuck-due-to-arctic-warmingAnd when the heat cannot be manufactured, it is only a small step to blame increased (or out-of-place) cold and snow on some similar contrivance. The faithful do not require scientific tests ... only small reasons to believe. If this were a B-grade war movie ...
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Post by mondeoman on Aug 20, 2018 22:03:59 GMT
A (Cold) Bridge Too Far?
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Post by nautonnier on Aug 21, 2018 5:03:05 GMT
Trying to remain unexcited However, I did see a forecast that even Central Florida could see snow events this winter. If that occurred it would be interesting to see how the press would treat it. I suspect Mann et al would say that it was just as their models predicted. They are already setting the stage for those arguments. Already the low pressure gradient from south to north ... and thus the loopy jet ... are being blamed on CO2. Circulation stalling has long been a concern of climate scientists, though most previous studies have looked at winter patterns. The new paper reviews research on summer trends, where it says there is mounting evidence of planetary wind systems – both low-level storm tracks and higher waves in the troposphere – losing their ability to shift the weather.
One cause is a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and Equator as a result of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The far north of the Earth is warming two to four times faster than the global average, says the paper, which means there is a declining temperature gap with the central belt of the planet. As this ramp flattens, winds struggle to build up sufficient energy and speed to push around pressure systems in the area between them. www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/20/summer-weather-is-getting-stuck-due-to-arctic-warmingAnd when the heat cannot be manufactured, it is only a small step to blame increased (or out-of-place) cold and snow on some similar contrivance. The faithful do not require scientific tests ... only small reasons to believe. If this were a B-grade war movie ... The entire ocean / atmosphere system is a heat engine driven by the Sun, in particular by shorter wave radiation. When you reduce the input heat, the heat engine will start to stall. The Arctic has remained cold but the input energy from the Sun has reduced and the oceans are rapidly cooling expect more indications of the heat engine faltering.
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Post by icefisher on Aug 21, 2018 18:27:46 GMT
They are already setting the stage for those arguments. Already the low pressure gradient from south to north ... and thus the loopy jet ... are being blamed on CO2. Circulation stalling has long been a concern of climate scientists, though most previous studies have looked at winter patterns. The new paper reviews research on summer trends, where it says there is mounting evidence of planetary wind systems – both low-level storm tracks and higher waves in the troposphere – losing their ability to shift the weather.
One cause is a weakening of the temperature gradient between the Arctic and Equator as a result of man-made greenhouse gas emissions. The far north of the Earth is warming two to four times faster than the global average, says the paper, which means there is a declining temperature gap with the central belt of the planet. As this ramp flattens, winds struggle to build up sufficient energy and speed to push around pressure systems in the area between them. www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/20/summer-weather-is-getting-stuck-due-to-arctic-warmingAnd when the heat cannot be manufactured, it is only a small step to blame increased (or out-of-place) cold and snow on some similar contrivance. The faithful do not require scientific tests ... only small reasons to believe. If this were a B-grade war movie ... The entire ocean / atmosphere system is a heat engine driven by the Sun, in particular by shorter wave radiation. When you reduce the input heat, the heat engine will start to stall. The Arctic has remained cold but the input energy from the Sun has reduced and the oceans are rapidly cooling expect more indications of the heat engine faltering. We agree. My paper works in the direction of this issue. You are far more knowledgeable of the basic processes peculiar to the climate than I am so my paper does not at all describe the way engine actually produces variation in heating in cooling but instead focuses on the heart of the engine that is only trivially connected to CO2 from the standpoint of current variations. Very clearly greenhouse effects are important to our comfort on this planet and CO2 may have some modest comfort effects though I am not convince they will be negative or positive. I have a modest amount of experience in designing comfortable living spaces using all the means of doing so including largely forgotten pre-cheap energy techniques. No I am not that old but invested a lot of hours in studying how its done without paying the utility company to do it for you. Not sure what I favor as the main culprit for climate variation but it seems it has to be a combination of a lot of small things. I might list, TSI, magnetism, UV, cosmic rays, xrays, and ice. Throw in a lot of chaotic responses by our liquid oceans and atmosphere. The modified longterm Milankovitch variation explained by Javier on Judy's blog seems to offer perhaps a significant contribution to climate resulting from ice accumulation and melting as we sit in the neo-glaciation phase. At least its key to my theory of why the ocean bottoms are cold despite being sandwiched between two warm places. Throw in some UHI, and Adustocene bias, and Watts' identified control issues that mostly effect the surface monitoring system what you end up with is probably the very modest climate variation we have noted over the past couple of centuries and currently enshrined in UAH data where they have yet to imbibe in the koolaid. Cooling is the real threat. Very clearly our world is a colder place than ideal. It may have been ideal a few million years ago when it was warmer. Without tropical warmth we probably would not have survived this ice age. Environmentalists need to learn to solve actual problems rather than inventing ones yet to manifest themselves as a problem. I think the real message was sent back in I think it was 2008 when Britain almost shutdown because of a huge scaling back of preparedness for cold after their scientists told them white christmas would be no longer forthcoming. We seem to be rushing, especially here in California, towards such a total lack of consciousness about real risk. Probably the only thing they have right is the expectation of drought. But by my theory drought is associated with cold rather than warm. Not sure I have that right but cold oceans expel both less heat and less water.
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Post by acidohm on Aug 21, 2018 20:09:37 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Aug 21, 2018 23:54:14 GMT
The entire ocean / atmosphere system is a heat engine driven by the Sun, in particular by shorter wave radiation. When you reduce the input heat, the heat engine will start to stall. The Arctic has remained cold but the input energy from the Sun has reduced and the oceans are rapidly cooling expect more indications of the heat engine faltering. We agree. My paper works in the direction of this issue. You are far more knowledgeable of the basic processes peculiar to the climate than I am so my paper does not at all describe the way engine actually produces variation in heating in cooling but instead focuses on the heart of the engine that is only trivially connected to CO2 from the standpoint of current variations. Very clearly greenhouse effects are important to our comfort on this planet and CO2 may have some modest comfort effects though I am not convince they will be negative or positive. I have a modest amount of experience in designing comfortable living spaces using all the means of doing so including largely forgotten pre-cheap energy techniques. No I am not that old but invested a lot of hours in studying how its done without paying the utility company to do it for you. Not sure what I favor as the main culprit for climate variation but it seems it has to be a combination of a lot of small things. I might list, TSI, magnetism, UV, cosmic rays, xrays, and ice. Throw in a lot of chaotic responses by our liquid oceans and atmosphere. The modified longterm Milankovitch variation explained by Javier on Judy's blog seems to offer perhaps a significant contribution to climate resulting from ice accumulation and melting as we sit in the neo-glaciation phase. At least its key to my theory of why the ocean bottoms are cold despite being sandwiched between two warm places. Throw in some UHI, and Adustocene bias, and Watts' identified control issues that mostly effect the surface monitoring system what you end up with is probably the very modest climate variation we have noted over the past couple of centuries and currently enshrined in UAH data where they have yet to imbibe in the koolaid. Cooling is the real threat. Very clearly our world is a colder place than ideal. It may have been ideal a few million years ago when it was warmer. Without tropical warmth we probably would not have survived this ice age. Environmentalists need to learn to solve actual problems rather than inventing ones yet to manifest themselves as a problem. I think the real message was sent back in I think it was 2008 when Britain almost shutdown because of a huge scaling back of preparedness for cold after their scientists told them white christmas would be no longer forthcoming. We seem to be rushing, especially here in California, towards such a total lack of consciousness about real risk. Probably the only thing they have right is the expectation of drought. But by my theory drought is associated with cold rather than warm. Not sure I have that right but cold oceans expel both less heat and less water. Sure you're right. Ice, when will we see your paper ..... or a draft?
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Post by icefisher on Aug 22, 2018 1:50:55 GMT
We agree. My paper works in the direction of this issue. You are far more knowledgeable of the basic processes peculiar to the climate than I am so my paper does not at all describe the way engine actually produces variation in heating in cooling but instead focuses on the heart of the engine that is only trivially connected to CO2 from the standpoint of current variations. Very clearly greenhouse effects are important to our comfort on this planet and CO2 may have some modest comfort effects though I am not convince they will be negative or positive. I have a modest amount of experience in designing comfortable living spaces using all the means of doing so including largely forgotten pre-cheap energy techniques. No I am not that old but invested a lot of hours in studying how its done without paying the utility company to do it for you. Not sure what I favor as the main culprit for climate variation but it seems it has to be a combination of a lot of small things. I might list, TSI, magnetism, UV, cosmic rays, xrays, and ice. Throw in a lot of chaotic responses by our liquid oceans and atmosphere. The modified longterm Milankovitch variation explained by Javier on Judy's blog seems to offer perhaps a significant contribution to climate resulting from ice accumulation and melting as we sit in the neo-glaciation phase. At least its key to my theory of why the ocean bottoms are cold despite being sandwiched between two warm places. Throw in some UHI, and Adustocene bias, and Watts' identified control issues that mostly effect the surface monitoring system what you end up with is probably the very modest climate variation we have noted over the past couple of centuries and currently enshrined in UAH data where they have yet to imbibe in the koolaid. Cooling is the real threat. Very clearly our world is a colder place than ideal. It may have been ideal a few million years ago when it was warmer. Without tropical warmth we probably would not have survived this ice age. Environmentalists need to learn to solve actual problems rather than inventing ones yet to manifest themselves as a problem. I think the real message was sent back in I think it was 2008 when Britain almost shutdown because of a huge scaling back of preparedness for cold after their scientists told them white christmas would be no longer forthcoming. We seem to be rushing, especially here in California, towards such a total lack of consciousness about real risk. Probably the only thing they have right is the expectation of drought. But by my theory drought is associated with cold rather than warm. Not sure I have that right but cold oceans expel both less heat and less water. Sure you're right. Ice, when will we see your paper ..... or a draft? Not sure. I am doing a major rewrite right now and will probably put up a draft pretty soon.
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Post by missouriboy on Aug 26, 2018 20:12:54 GMT
This part seems to be similar to Astro ... The real teeth-chattering arrives mid-February especially in the following zones: Northeast/New England, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Southeast (yes, even the Southeast will be in the chill zone!).
But perhaps not as much season shift. Winter will hang on with stormy conditions up through the official start of spring, especially for the East Coast.
This part suggests earlier like Big Joe ... also predicting above-normal precipitation (lots of snow!) for the Great Lakes states, Midwest, and central and northern New England, with the majority of it falling in January and February.
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