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QBO
Jul 5, 2018 20:20:53 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 5, 2018 20:20:53 GMT
www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.phpAt the end of the above page, a table of monthly QBO values appears to show QBO intensity increasing over the last 50 odd years. Are these figures correct, why such a long gain in values??
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Post by blustnmtn on Jul 5, 2018 20:56:37 GMT
www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.phpAt the end of the above page, a table of monthly QBO values appears to show QBO intensity increasing over the last 50 odd years. Are these figures correct, why such a long gain in values?? My guess is that there are lower frequency variation cycles in the QBO than are observed in this "short" sampling period. The interactive nature of all these phenomena is mind boggling. Luckily, only CO2 matters
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QBO
Jul 5, 2018 21:47:08 GMT
Post by nautonnier on Jul 5, 2018 21:47:08 GMT
www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.phpAt the end of the above page, a table of monthly QBO values appears to show QBO intensity increasing over the last 50 odd years. Are these figures correct, why such a long gain in values?? Well you asked First see this description of the QBO www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/why-quasi-biennial-oscillation-mattersIn particular: "When the QBO was first discovered in the late 1950s, it took scientists some time to figure out what was causing it, but by the early 1970s the basic physics was established. Waves propagate up from the troposphere into the stratosphere and, by a process known as critical layer absorption, some of these waves break and deposit momentum at just the right altitude to reinforce the zonal winds and cause them to migrate downwards. The waves involved are both large-scale equatorial waves, of the kind that ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) can resolve, and small-scale gravity waves which must be parametrized. The waves carry both eastward and westward momentum, but the absorption process extracts the momentum at different levels, giving the alternative easterly and westerly winds."As I have said before the tropopause is not a flat sheet it is more like the surface of a rough sea with breaking waves along the equatorial wind bands and of course SSWs are actually a jet stream lifting then breaking as a wave over the pole. It is very dynamic. Now into that set of ideas move to Stephen Wilde's hypothesis. See here: joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/"In essence: The Sun affects the ozone layer through changes in UV or charged particles. When the Sun is more active there is more ozone above the equator and less over the poles, and vice versa. An increase in ozone warms the stratosphere or mesosphere, which pushes the tropopause lower. There is thus a solar induced see-saw effect on the height of the tropopause, which causes the climate zones to shift towards then away from the equator, moving the jet streams and changing them from “zonal” jet streams to “meridonal” ones."What Stephen is saying is that the stratosphere is warmer and the tropopause is pushed lower. So from that it can be hypothesized that breaking waves from the QBO now have a shallower band in which to break and pass on their angular momentum at a lower altitude which may well have a significant impact on the strength of the QBO effects. (and of course vice versa) Add to that the change to more meridonal jets and the effect of the QBO would be moderated/mediated by Stephen Wilde's lowered tropopause. Does all that make sense?
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QBO
Jul 5, 2018 22:41:44 GMT
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Post by acidohm on Jul 5, 2018 22:41:44 GMT
Yes, and thankyou Naut.
There is a description of vertical waves in rear admiral fitroys book on meteorology, which is quite a feat considering he published circa 1855 at the dawn of meteorology, much of their understanding of our atmosphere came from a number of scientific balloon journeys.
However....and I understand the uv relationship to solar cycles and stratosphere etc....how come the progressive increase in intensity seemingly detached from the solar cycle differences over the same period??
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QBO
Jul 6, 2018 3:10:49 GMT
Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2018 3:10:49 GMT
Yes, and thankyou Naut. There is a description of vertical waves in rear admiral fitroys book on meteorology, which is quite a feat considering he published circa 1855 at the dawn of meteorology, much of their understanding of our atmosphere came from a number of scientific balloon journeys. However....and I understand the uv relationship to solar cycles and stratosphere etc....how come the progressive increase in intensity seemingly detached from the solar cycle differences over the same period?? Well there are continual representations that the solar cycles up to 24 were grand solar maximum - if Stephen Wilde is right that would lead to a progressively increasing strength of QBO. The question is now we are in the tail of 24 and potentially seeing the first indications of 25 is the intensity decreasing?
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QBO
Jul 6, 2018 5:47:19 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2018 5:47:19 GMT
Apparently the most negative value for June was recorded recently...
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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QBO
Jul 6, 2018 7:45:43 GMT
Post by jopo on Jul 6, 2018 7:45:43 GMT
www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.phpAt the end of the above page, a table of monthly QBO values appears to show QBO intensity increasing over the last 50 odd years. Are these figures correct, why such a long gain in values?? I recently come across a abstract written at the 40th COSPAR Scientific Assembly in 2014 adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2732RQuasi-Biennial Oscillation as the Result of Planetary Motion QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION AS THE RESULT OF PLANETARY MOTION A.Ju.Retejum Lomonosov Moscow State University, aretejum@yandex.ru A remarkable phenomenon of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) attracts a growing attention for its unclear origin and possible global impact. A comprehensive theory of this phenomenon should answer the following questions: 1. Why does the phase change of the atmospheric circulation on average occur every 800 days? 2. When does the cycle length decreases or increases? 3. Wherefore the regular wind shift is observed in the equatorial stratosphere only? 4. What could cause a sudden reverse in zonal wind direction? 5. Why the generating impulse travels from the border between the atmosphere and outer space downwards without significant loss of power? 6. What is the reason of known differences in behavior patterns between west and east winds? 7. How do middle and upper latitudes respond to the remote signal? Unfortunately all the explanation of QBO that have been given so far, unable to meet the above criteria. The author proposes an alternative idea of the external forcing due to motion of Mars, Jupiter and Venus. This study is based on the QBO Index data at the 30-hPa Height for the 1979-2013 period (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index). Having in mind that the oscillation is symmetric about the Equator, where the Earth rotation speed is highest, one examined on the first stage relationships between the QBO manifestation and the length of day. A ten-year comparison of slow and fast spinning periods (1979-1983, 1991-1995 and 2000-2006, 2009-2011 respectively) reveals a significant difference in west and east winds strengths. The same picture can be observed if mean monthly data for March-April (the length of day maximum) and July (the length of day minimum) are collated. This is the answer to the question # 3. The exact answers to questions # 1 and # 2 give an analysis of the dependence of the wind reverse time on the moments of Mars, Jupiter and Venus conjunctions or opposition in geocentric ecliptical longitudes. Mars having the synodic period varies between 764 and 810 days plays a key role in this process of external regulation. The planets forcing fact is the answer to the question # 5. Sudden reverses in zonal wind direction coincide with the Earth’s changing rotation rate under the influence of other planets and the Sun. Winds shift to west usually occurs when the length of day is getting longer, and the globe’s spin-up produces an opposite effect. West and east winds exhibit different response to the forced irregularities of the forward rotation of the Earth. This finding helps answer to questions # 4 and # 6. Some signs of quasi-biennial modulation in northern regions might be considered as traces of the telecommunication factor. But processing of the data on sensitive indicators (zonal winds and heat flux at 60° as well as total ozone concentration) by means of the superposed epoch method provide evidences of the Martian control (the answer to questions # 7). The first proven effect of the planets impact on the Earth’s atmosphere is a result of conservation of angular momentum in the Solar system and interaction of the outer ether envelops of celestial bodies with forward and reverse rotation. So i downloaded the ephemeris XYZ data from the NASA Horizons site. The resultant angle when using Jupiter (J) Mars (M) and Earth (E) returned the chart below. Not bad. I tried Venus in the mix and again a simialr result. But always noisy. Something in it I say. I suspect correlation is actually better around the zero crossovers for plantary geometric events. I am yet to figure how to extract that from the ephemeris. Unable to load the 98KB attachement to this post???
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QBO
Jul 6, 2018 9:01:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Jul 6, 2018 9:01:47 GMT
www.daculaweather.com/4_qbo_index.phpAt the end of the above page, a table of monthly QBO values appears to show QBO intensity increasing over the last 50 odd years. Are these figures correct, why such a long gain in values?? I recently come across a abstract written at the 40th COSPAR Scientific Assembly in 2014 adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2732RQuasi-Biennial Oscillation as the Result of Planetary Motion QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION AS THE RESULT OF PLANETARY MOTION A.Ju.Retejum Lomonosov Moscow State University, aretejum@yandex.ru A remarkable phenomenon of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) attracts a growing attention for its unclear origin and possible global impact. A comprehensive theory of this phenomenon should answer the following questions: 1. Why does the phase change of the atmospheric circulation on average occur every 800 days? 2. When does the cycle length decreases or increases? 3. Wherefore the regular wind shift is observed in the equatorial stratosphere only? 4. What could cause a sudden reverse in zonal wind direction? 5. Why the generating impulse travels from the border between the atmosphere and outer space downwards without significant loss of power? 6. What is the reason of known differences in behavior patterns between west and east winds? 7. How do middle and upper latitudes respond to the remote signal? Unfortunately all the explanation of QBO that have been given so far, unable to meet the above criteria. The author proposes an alternative idea of the external forcing due to motion of Mars, Jupiter and Venus. This study is based on the QBO Index data at the 30-hPa Height for the 1979-2013 period (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index). Having in mind that the oscillation is symmetric about the Equator, where the Earth rotation speed is highest, one examined on the first stage relationships between the QBO manifestation and the length of day. A ten-year comparison of slow and fast spinning periods (1979-1983, 1991-1995 and 2000-2006, 2009-2011 respectively) reveals a significant difference in west and east winds strengths. The same picture can be observed if mean monthly data for March-April (the length of day maximum) and July (the length of day minimum) are collated. This is the answer to the question # 3. The exact answers to questions # 1 and # 2 give an analysis of the dependence of the wind reverse time on the moments of Mars, Jupiter and Venus conjunctions or opposition in geocentric ecliptical longitudes. Mars having the synodic period varies between 764 and 810 days plays a key role in this process of external regulation. The planets forcing fact is the answer to the question # 5. Sudden reverses in zonal wind direction coincide with the Earth’s changing rotation rate under the influence of other planets and the Sun. Winds shift to west usually occurs when the length of day is getting longer, and the globe’s spin-up produces an opposite effect. West and east winds exhibit different response to the forced irregularities of the forward rotation of the Earth. This finding helps answer to questions # 4 and # 6. Some signs of quasi-biennial modulation in northern regions might be considered as traces of the telecommunication factor. But processing of the data on sensitive indicators (zonal winds and heat flux at 60° as well as total ozone concentration) by means of the superposed epoch method provide evidences of the Martian control (the answer to questions # 7). The first proven effect of the planets impact on the Earth’s atmosphere is a result of conservation of angular momentum in the Solar system and interaction of the outer ether envelops of celestial bodies with forward and reverse rotation. So i downloaded the ephemeris XYZ data from the NASA Horizons site. The resultant angle when using Jupiter (J) Mars (M) and Earth (E) returned the chart below. Not bad. I tried Venus in the mix and again a simialr result. But always noisy. Something in it I say. I suspect correlation is actually better around the zero crossovers for plantary geometric events. I am yet to figure how to extract that from the ephemeris. Unable to load the 98KB attachement to this post??? Thx jojo! Loading images to this forum became impossible via the site itself once we exceeded the limit some time ago. It is possible to link to an external web page. Perhaps someone could help Jojo out??? I'm no expert in this 🤪
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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Post by jopo on Jul 6, 2018 9:21:19 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2018 9:26:56 GMT
I recently come across a abstract written at the 40th COSPAR Scientific Assembly in 2014 adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014cosp...40E2732RQuasi-Biennial Oscillation as the Result of Planetary Motion QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION AS THE RESULT OF PLANETARY MOTION A.Ju.Retejum Lomonosov Moscow State University, aretejum@yandex.ru A remarkable phenomenon of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) attracts a growing attention for its unclear origin and possible global impact. A comprehensive theory of this phenomenon should answer the following questions: 1. Why does the phase change of the atmospheric circulation on average occur every 800 days? 2. When does the cycle length decreases or increases? 3. Wherefore the regular wind shift is observed in the equatorial stratosphere only? 4. What could cause a sudden reverse in zonal wind direction? 5. Why the generating impulse travels from the border between the atmosphere and outer space downwards without significant loss of power? 6. What is the reason of known differences in behavior patterns between west and east winds? 7. How do middle and upper latitudes respond to the remote signal? Unfortunately all the explanation of QBO that have been given so far, unable to meet the above criteria. The author proposes an alternative idea of the external forcing due to motion of Mars, Jupiter and Venus. This study is based on the QBO Index data at the 30-hPa Height for the 1979-2013 period (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u30.index). Having in mind that the oscillation is symmetric about the Equator, where the Earth rotation speed is highest, one examined on the first stage r elationships between the QBO manifestation and the length of day. A ten-year comparison of slow and fast spinning periods (1979-1983, 1991-1995 and 2000-2006, 2009-2011 respectively) reveals a significant difference in west and east winds strengths. The same picture can be observed if mean monthly data for March-April (the length of day maximum) and July (the length of day minimum) are collated. This is the answer to the question # 3. The exact answers to questions # 1 and # 2 give an analysis of the dependence of the wind reverse time on the moments of Mars, Jupiter and Venus conjunctions or opposition in geocentric ecliptical longitudes. Mars having the synodic period varies between 764 and 810 days plays a key role in this process of external regulation. The planets forcing fact is the answer to the question # 5. Sudden reverses in zonal wind direction coincide with the Earth’s changing rotation rate under the influence of other planets and the Sun. Winds shift to west usually occurs when the length of day is getting longer, and the globe’s spin-up produces an opposite effect. West and east winds exhibit different response to the forced irregularities of the forward rotation of the Earth. This finding helps answer to questions # 4 and # 6. Some signs of quasi-biennial modulation in northern regions might be considered as traces of the telecommunication factor. But processing of the data on sensitive indicators (zonal winds and heat flux at 60° as well as total ozone concentration) by means of the superposed epoch method provide evidences of the Martian control (the answer to questions # 7). The first proven effect of the planets impact on the Earth’s atmosphere is a result of conservation of angular momentum in the Solar system and interaction of the outer ether envelops of celestial bodies with forward and reverse rotation. So i downloaded the ephemeris XYZ data from the NASA Horizons site. The resultant angle when using Jupiter (J) Mars (M) and Earth (E) returned the chart below. Not bad. I tried Venus in the mix and again a simialr result. But always noisy. Something in it I say. I suspect correlation is actually better around the zero crossovers for plantary geometric events. I am yet to figure how to extract that from the ephemeris. Unable to load the 98KB attachement to this post??? Thx jojo! Loading images to this forum became impossible via the site itself once we exceeded the limit some time ago. It is possible to link to an external web page. Perhaps someone could help Jojo out??? I'm no expert in this 🤪 If I knew the attachment JoJo wanted to link to I could do that. See the area of the abstract I have linked to. I knew that Barry would be involved somewhere . If this actually proves to be the case then there are some regulars on WUWT who will not be best pleased, as they have disdain both for barycenters and The Gas Laws, yet it is starting to appear that just those two known areas of basic physics can explain a significant number of the behavior of the Sun and observed atmospheric effects.
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Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2018 10:06:20 GMT
We cross posted here's your chart I ended up using dropbox rather than the google reference
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QBO
Jul 6, 2018 10:12:12 GMT
Post by nautonnier on Jul 6, 2018 10:12:12 GMT
It would be interesting to match that chart against a chart showing the position of the solar system barycenter from the Sun's center, as it appears to go antiphase in the middle of the chart - so there is something else that is affecting the QBO.
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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Post by jopo on Jul 6, 2018 10:32:04 GMT
I should mention that the QBO axis has been inverted.
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QBO
Jul 6, 2018 12:13:30 GMT
Post by Ratty on Jul 6, 2018 12:13:30 GMT
I should mention that the QBO axis has been inverted. CO 2 will cause that ....
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QBO
Jul 26, 2018 19:08:37 GMT
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sigurdur likes this
Post by acidohm on Jul 26, 2018 19:08:37 GMT
July following June for record time of year negative values.
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