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QBO
Jul 26, 2018 22:40:27 GMT
Post by missouriboy on Jul 26, 2018 22:40:27 GMT
We cross posted here's your chart I ended up using dropbox rather than the google reference I missed this while I was gone. I note that the antiphase section of the chart corresponds with the "Great Climate Shift" which has not been to my knowledge successfully explained. Something also happens in the first part of the series (bad data?) that may correspond to a period of decline in the late 40s and 50s. And it seems to be going awry again since 2016? i captured the QBO data in a spreadsheet if anyone is ever interested.
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Post by missouriboy on Jul 27, 2018 22:53:20 GMT
There was talk that the QBO index may, in part, be driven by changes in UV radiation that occur during solar cycle minimums and longer-term declines that we may be seeing now. Thought it would be a good time to plot the monthly QBO data I copied from the link in this thread and compare seasonal QBO values against solar data. In Big Joe form, that article made the argument that cold Midwest American winters appear to occur whenever the QBO is negative from November through March. So, I created a set of normalized QBO deviations for Winter (defined here as Nov-Mar) and Summer (defined here as May-Sept) and overplotted both with the normalized solar flux data set. In the old UV data sets (1973-2008), UV over-plots solar flux almost exactly. Several things stand out. First, winter variance in the usually twined QBO index is usually greater and the lows are lower (more negative) during our two periods of solar cycle decline (the 1960s-70s and 2006-Present). Extreme winters can be identified by the low stands. At solar cycle max, the low winter stands usually contract. The low stands contracted dramatically during the second half of the Grand Solar Maxim from about 1976 to 2006. In particular, note 1992 to 2006. Also note the huge increase in variance since 2006, with a return to very negative AND positive values that has accompanied the decline into SC24. Summer QBO values also seem to show a pattern. From 2004 to 2008, variance became extreme. Lower lows were the norm over SC23, whereas they were not consistently as low over SCs 21 and 22. Variance was least during the 50s and 60s.
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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QBO
Oct 8, 2018 17:07:25 GMT
Post by jopo on Oct 8, 2018 17:07:25 GMT
Well guys, thanks to Nautonnier and his comments regarding barycentre it got me thinking and looking at angular velocity of the planets jupiter and mars. I finally have put it together. And the correlation to the earths Quasi-Biennial oscillation is spot on. There is still the anti correlation in between 1964 and 1989. mmm. interesting solar system layout in that time period when using solar system scope. Anyway, now I am just using Jupiter and Mars Cartesian coordinates and then getting cos theta. I then get the rate of change from month to month and the following chart is the result when compared to the QBO. I am using a reconstructed QBO by Stefan Brönnimann. His work uses SLP and ozone data to extract the data further back. It is on the KNMI site. his paper is agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2007GL031354Link to pic oi64.tinypic.com/jv3l11.jpgBlue is ROC and Orange is the QBO. I am pretty happy with the work. I am looking for a free screen recorder that has no water mark i could use so I can video the process of the data download and charting of. I would really appreciate some feedback from you guys. I am active on a local Australian site where my planetary discussions and climate are pretty well observed as whacky.
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QBO
Oct 8, 2018 22:07:14 GMT
Post by missouriboy on Oct 8, 2018 22:07:14 GMT
Well guys, thanks to Nautonnier and his comments regarding barycentre it got me thinking and looking at angular velocity of the planets jupiter and mars. I finally have put it together. And the correlation to the earths Quasi-Biennial oscillation is spot on. There is still the anti correlation in between 1964 and 1989. mmm. interesting solar system layout in that time period when using solar system scope. Anyway, now I am just using Jupiter and Mars Cartesian coordinates and then getting cos theta. I then get the rate of change from month to month and the following chart is the result when compared to the QBO. I am using a reconstructed QBO by Stefan Brönnimann. His work uses SLP and ozone data to extract the data further back. It is on the KNMI site. his paper is agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2007GL031354Link to pic oi64.tinypic.com/jv3l11.jpgBlue is ROC and Orange is the QBO. c I am pretty happy with the work. I am looking for a free screen recorder that has no water mark i could use so I can video the process of the data download and charting of. I would really appreciate some feedback from you guys. I am active on a local Australian site where my planetary discussions and climate are pretty well observed as whacky. I might point out that the "Great Climate Shift" occurred during your anti-correlation period. And does it appear to be going out of phase/sync again? I'm reaching now ... but are we seeing a shift in circulation between the Northern Hemisphere Atlantic to the Southern? I merely have the salinity changes as displayed in ARGO for 2004-08 and 2016-18. Many have noted how Northern Hemisphere climate changed in the period around 1976 but I haven't seen many explanations. Could gravitational forces change oceanic circulation patterns? Don't worry about being called whacky. The really whacky ones have already carved out their CO2 empires. SALINITY DEVIATIONS 2004-2008 SALINITY DEVIATIONS 2016-2018
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QBO
Oct 9, 2018 0:26:38 GMT
Post by Ratty on Oct 9, 2018 0:26:38 GMT
[ Snip ] I would really appreciate some feedback from you guys. I am active on a local Australian site where my planetary discussions and climate are pretty well observed as whacky. There are a few of us Aussie whackies around, JoPo. What is the site giving you heartburn?
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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Post by jopo on Oct 9, 2018 2:28:19 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Oct 9, 2018 3:02:02 GMT
Well there's your problem. Medicine from the left. Lucky you're still alive.
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QBO
Oct 9, 2018 12:51:01 GMT
Post by Ratty on Oct 9, 2018 12:51:01 GMT
I have an account there too (dbeyat45) but rarely contribute. Actually, I wasn't aware that it had anything other than stock market discussion. Now I see, they have everything: Main Forums: Political Debate World Politics ASX Sharemarket Game Breaking News Economics Fixed Income General Humour Lifestyle & Travel Lounge Music Pets Philosophy & Religion Property Science & Medicine Sport Test World Events Not sure I have the energy to look further ..... PS: Seems you have a few friends there.
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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Post by jopo on Oct 10, 2018 8:26:31 GMT
Starting to find a few papers now where ozone is used in models to work out what the QBO has been doing. in other words the QBO influences OZONE. Now how on earth can OZONE be influenced by a wind 15 to 20 km up in the air determined by which direction it is travelling in? This is a question that needs to be answered. So of course doing what every good skeptic should we need to verify the comments I have seen in the various papers. And sure as heck it is true. EVEN down to the blip in 2016 where CAGW alarmist claimed we humans are now influencing the QBO where it had a sudden reversal in 2016. Ozone show that as well. So i have just superimposed the KNMI Ozone data for the equatorial region over the actual observed QBO and the oi66.tinypic.com/95wx9w.jpgQBO in Blue OZONE for the equatorial region is in Brown. It is simply scaled and overlayed onto the "measured QBO" put on a excel sheet So the QBO can modulate ozone. i am unsure how it does that but it is interesting that the anti - phase component of the QBO shown earlier in the thread where here on earth the jupiter / Mars angular momentum forcing got out of sync with the QBO. This only really become noticeable once in the QBO data for the 120 year period. This anti phase component started in the mid to late 60s and peaked in the late eighties and then a rapid movement to be back in phase by the early 90s. I wonder if there is a correlation with that and the OZONE scare of the Eighties??
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QBO
Oct 10, 2018 12:45:56 GMT
Post by Ratty on Oct 10, 2018 12:45:56 GMT
Starting to find a few papers now where ozone is used in models to work out what the QBO has been doing. in other words the QBO influences OZONE. Now how on earth can OZONE be influenced by a wind 15 to 20 km up in the air determined by which direction it is travelling in? This is a question that needs to be answered. So of course doing what every good skeptic should we need to verify the comments I have seen in the various papers. And sure as heck it is true. EVEN down to the blip in 2016 where CAGW alarmist claimed we humans are now influencing the QBO where it had a sudden reversal in 2016. Ozone show that as well. So i have just superimposed the KNMI Ozone data for the equatorial region over the actual observed QBO and the oi66.tinypic.com/95wx9w.jpgQBO in Blue OZONE for the equatorial region is in Brown. It is simply scaled and overlayed onto the "measured QBO" put on a excel sheet So the QBO can modulate ozone. i am unsure how it does that but it is interesting that the anti - phase component of the QBO shown earlier in the thread where here on earth the jupiter / Mars angular momentum forcing got out of sync with the QBO. This only really become noticeable once in the QBO data for the 120 year period. This anti phase component started in the mid to late 60s and peaked in the late eighties and then a rapid movement to be back in phase by the early 90s. I wonder if there is a correlation with that and the OZONE scare of the Eighties?? I saw a chart like that somewhere .....
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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QBO
Oct 10, 2018 12:49:16 GMT
Post by jopo on Oct 10, 2018 12:49:16 GMT
Starting to find a few papers now where ozone is used in models to work out what the QBO has been doing. in other words the QBO influences OZONE. Now how on earth can OZONE be influenced by a wind 15 to 20 km up in the air determined by which direction it is travelling in? This is a question that needs to be answered. So of course doing what every good skeptic should we need to verify the comments I have seen in the various papers. And sure as heck it is true. EVEN down to the blip in 2016 where CAGW alarmist claimed we humans are now influencing the QBO where it had a sudden reversal in 2016. Ozone show that as well. So i have just superimposed the KNMI Ozone data for the equatorial region over the actual observed QBO and the oi66.tinypic.com/95wx9w.jpgQBO in Blue OZONE for the equatorial region is in Brown. It is simply scaled and overlayed onto the "measured QBO" put on a excel sheet So the QBO can modulate ozone. i am unsure how it does that but it is interesting that the anti - phase component of the QBO shown earlier in the thread where here on earth the jupiter / Mars angular momentum forcing got out of sync with the QBO. This only really become noticeable once in the QBO data for the 120 year period. This anti phase component started in the mid to late 60s and peaked in the late eighties and then a rapid movement to be back in phase by the early 90s. I wonder if there is a correlation with that and the OZONE scare of the Eighties?? I saw a chart like that somewhere ..... You got any peer review papers stating that correlation? lol I have for QBO and Ozone
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QBO
Oct 10, 2018 23:12:48 GMT
Post by Ratty on Oct 10, 2018 23:12:48 GMT
[ Snip ] You got any peer review papers stating that correlation? lol I have for QBO and Ozone All I need is the funding.
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jopo
New Member
Posts: 30
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Post by jopo on Oct 14, 2018 8:55:58 GMT
Hi Guys,
You guys are as bright as they come. SO I have come here
I have put this on you tube as I am seeking help in identifying the reason why for the correaltion. I am terrible at articulating my thoughts and even this you-tube clip is terrible. But I hope you have the patience to watch the 15 minute video and instruct me where I am going wrong and where or what I need to do to better get a message across that Jupiter and Mars do in fact influence the Earths QBO. I see the correlation but i see no mechanism.
looking forward to some ideas from you
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QBO
Oct 14, 2018 23:28:43 GMT
jopo likes this
Post by Ratty on Oct 14, 2018 23:28:43 GMT
Hi Guys, You guys are as bright as they come. SO I have come here I have put this on you tube as I am seeking help in identifying the reason why for the correaltion. I am terrible at articulating my thoughts and even this you-tube clip is terrible. But I hope you have the patience to watch the 15 minute video and instruct me where I am going wrong and where or what I need to do to better get a message across that Jupiter and Mars do in fact influence the Earths QBO. I see the correlation but i see no mechanism. looking forward to some ideas from you [ Snip ] JoPo, I have no ideas but I have heard from Alex Retejum that - apart from the abstract - there is no English version of his paper, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation as the Result of Planetary Motion. He said: " I do have an idea to prepare special article but not soon, it is not priority # 1." You could try him direct (aretejum@yandex.ru) for a Russian version? I don't know how well a Google translation would work with something as complex as that.
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