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Post by missouriboy on Dec 11, 2020 18:07:59 GMT
phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.htmlHmmmm..... no 'Maunder like Min' then? In fact the potential for one of the strongest cycles yet seen with a peak between 210 & 260? If 'low Solar' really does mean cooling what would a supercharged Cycle mean for us?(we know the potential for satellites & driven currents on the surface should we see plenty of X flares driving massive CME's?) For over 2 decades certain folks have been promising me a run of deep solar Mins & now, with the discovery of the 22 yr 'magnetic cycle' (offset from the 11yr solar cycle) seems to undo all of that at the worst possible time!!!! Welcome back Graywolf. We need you "prodding" us to higher performance. So visit us more regularly. I wouldn't get too excited yet. Extrapolation of Dec. 1-11 sunspots to the whole month (if the remainder remains comparable) puts Dec right back on the SC24 line. One thing about SC25 is it's temendous daily variance (chart 2). It's definitely not lamb-like. PASS ALONG links to some of that 22-yr magnetic cycle data and publications/links will ya. Inquiring minds want to know. You know us We're open to anything except the plant-food gas. If SC25 explodes, you'll hear it here first - as soon as Silso updates it (which is daily - but I don't look every day). Ben Davidson (Suspicious Observers) believes that SC26 will be the real drop. We could be still be kicking. The real surprise may be how fast our magnetic field declines on its way to flipping. Estimates are that we are 25% there and accelerating.
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Post by nonentropic on Dec 12, 2020 0:31:19 GMT
One excursion is not a cycle but interesting all the same, do we have a fix on solar flux.
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Post by glennkoks on Dec 12, 2020 1:11:55 GMT
phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.htmlHmmmm..... no 'Maunder like Min' then? In fact the potential for one of the strongest cycles yet seen with a peak between 210 & 260? If 'low Solar' really does mean cooling what would a supercharged Cycle mean for us?(we know the potential for satellites & driven currents on the surface should we see plenty of X flares driving massive CME's?) For over 2 decades certain folks have been promising me a run of deep solar Mins & now, with the discovery of the 22 yr 'magnetic cycle' (offset from the 11yr solar cycle) seems to undo all of that at the worst possible time!!!! Welcome back. Despite the early burst and the study "forecasting" the highest peak in our history I would be willing to bet this solar cycle is less than the 116 of solar cycle 24. Any takers?
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 12, 2020 5:12:58 GMT
phys.org/news/2020-12-sunspot-strongest.htmlHmmmm..... no 'Maunder like Min' then? In fact the potential for one of the strongest cycles yet seen with a peak between 210 & 260? If 'low Solar' really does mean cooling what would a supercharged Cycle mean for us?(we know the potential for satellites & driven currents on the surface should we see plenty of X flares driving massive CME's?) For over 2 decades certain folks have been promising me a run of deep solar Mins & now, with the discovery of the 22 yr 'magnetic cycle' (offset from the 11yr solar cycle) seems to undo all of that at the worst possible time!!!! Welcome back. Despite the early burst and the study "forecasting" the highest peak in our history I would be willing to bet this solar cycle is less than the 116 of solar cycle 24. Any takers? The odds would have to be very profitable.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 12, 2020 6:08:30 GMT
One excursion is not a cycle but interesting all the same, do we have a fix on solar flux. Flux had a little blip, not much. Sunspots were really on the floor during the SC24-25 minimum. The "Heads" set solar minimum at Nov. 2019. If this was Philadelphia, don't know if I would believe that spike.
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Post by missouriboy on Dec 31, 2020 14:15:03 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 24, 2021 15:54:56 GMT
I'll put this here although it could go on the other board.... "What if … A Perfect CME Hit Earth? January 21, 2021 / Dr.Tony Phillips
Jan. 21, 2021: You’ve heard of a “perfect storm.” But what about a perfect solar storm? A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather considers what might happen if a worst-case coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth. Spoiler alert: You might need a backup generator.
For years, researchers have been wondering, what’s the worst the sun could do? In 2014, Bruce Tsurutani (JPL) and Gurbax Lakhina (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism) introduced the “Perfect CME.” It would be fast, leaving the sun around 3,000 km/s, and aimed directly at Earth. Moreover, it would follow another CME, which would clear the path in front of it, allowing the storm cloud to hit Earth with maximum force......"More here: spaceweatherarchive.com/2021/01/21/what-if-a-perfect-cme-hit-earth/H/T Tallblokes Talkshop
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Post by missouriboy on Jan 25, 2021 2:26:33 GMT
Toast anyone?
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 25, 2021 3:27:44 GMT
Toast anyone? You'll need to have the bread in a cellar or it may burn too quickly
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Post by gridley on Jan 25, 2021 13:14:04 GMT
Might be the best thing that could happen to the US right now... in the long run, anyway.
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Post by phydeaux2363 on Jan 25, 2021 14:52:57 GMT
That's a pretty dark and depressing view of things, Mr. Gridley.
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Post by nautonnier on Jan 25, 2021 16:05:19 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 16, 2021 16:45:33 GMT
According to the preliminary sunspot figures for February, 13 out of 18 days have been spotless. More new warm and cold weather records coming. But where ? that is question. Well Mr Peikko, I think we just saw one of the wheres ... and the totality seems to be the whole, damn Northern Hemisphere.
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Post by missouriboy on Mar 3, 2021 15:41:54 GMT
Month 15 of solar cycle 25 has returned to its low activity level for February, 2021 ... generally tracking at or below SC24 levels for the same time period. Thirteen spotless days for February and an average daily sunspot value of about 8. I would really love to have measures of UV radiation for SC24 and 25, but can't find them.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 11, 2021 20:04:11 GMT
Still spotless days occurring ... six of eleven so far in April. Don't look like a blockbuster from this angle.
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