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Post by duwayne on Apr 16, 2019 17:51:34 GMT
Duwayne, Just followed your note from "Global warming temperature predictions" I too follow AMO Index against HadCrut www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:2019/plot/esrl-amo/from:1850/to:2019(I have tried to post the above as an image, but don't seem to be succeeding) Like you, I have superimposed both images using Wood4Trees My plot shows rising trend of Global Temperatures against AMO Index I seems to differ from your plot above because I have not used "detrend" Can you please explain why you used "detrend" Neilhamp, that’s a good question. The short answer is that I detrended the Hadcrut anomalies because I am comparing them to the AMO which is reported as a detrended number. (The AMO signal is usually defined from the patterns of SST variability in the North Atlantic once any linear trend has been removed.) Here’s the longer answer. My quest is to try to predict how much the earth will warm over the next several decades if atmospheric CO2 continues to increase. I want to do this without relying on climate models which are based on highly unreliable weather models. The short-term daily global temperature movements are random. Most of the monthly temperature changes and trends over any given 5 year period can be explained by ENSO. Any CO2 warming effects are overwhelmed in the short term by ENSO. If one uses 7-year smoothing, the longer term trends become more apparent. For periods of 60 years or so, there is a clear uptrend which probably is due, at least in part, to CO2. If this long term uptrend is removed from the Hadcrut numbers, one is still left with a significant up and down oscillation. This has a period of about 60 years - 30 years up followed by 30 years down. The AMO has a similar oscillation so I then compare this detrended Hadcrut chart to the detrended AMO chart to see if there is a correlation of oscillations. My conclusion is that much of the change in global temperatures over decadel periods is due to the naturally occurring AMO (and other related ocean current oscillations). Neilhamp (and others), I can never tell whether my explanations are understandable, so let me know if this is clear even if you don’t agree with it.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 12, 2020 17:38:46 GMT
HADCRUT4 Versus UAH Global Temperatures and AMO Untrended Temperatures DuWayne. HADCRUT4 and UAH (Lower Troposphere) global temperatures continue to trend generally with AMO untrended values. Since about 1970, HADCRUT4 has outpaced AMO changes (Chart 1). Comparisons to UAH (Chart 2a and 2b) show that the differential between HADCRUT4 and UAH anomalies (HADCRUT4 minus UAH) have increased by nearly 0.2 C between Dec., 1978 and Feb., 2020. We know that HADCRUT4 anomalies are anchored to an earlier base period (1960-90), but that would not explain the increasing difference over time. During El Nino spikes the differential declines. Sure seems that HADCRUT likes the high side. I fully expect that differential to increase again in coming months. How high can it go?
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Post by duwayne on Feb 7, 2021 17:45:21 GMT
My Maxcon 1.0 Model is explained on this thread and I am using it to predict the UAH6 average anomaly for the 30-year 2007-2037 cool ocean cycle period. The prediction was temperatures would remain flat at 0.2C. 0.2C was the 2007 trended temperature for the 1977-2007 warming period - the 30-year warm ocean cycle.
Roy Spencer has announced a change in the base period for the UAH6 calculations from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020. This means all historical and future UAH6 anomalies will be (rounded to the first decimal point) 0.1C lower than they were and will be. To remain comparable, my 0.2C prediction is now 0.1C average for the 2007-2037 cool ocean cycle period.
On the updated basis, the actual average UAH6 anomaly for the 14-year 2007-2020 period is 0.1C, as predicted. The December 2020 anomaly was also 0.1C.
After 14 years, so far so good. The prediction was based on atmospheric CO2 growing at the rate it grew prior to 2007. The rate has been somewhat faster over the last 14 years despite the talk. We'll see what happens in the future, but a continuation of current growth rates could push the average temperature up by 0.1C.
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 7, 2021 20:33:20 GMT
Duwayne,
Your Maxcon 1.0 model seems to take account of AMO and CO2 You don't seem to include any reference to the sun.
Do you think the possible reduced solar cycle25 (2020-32), combined with a falling AMO, may result in lower temperatures than your model predicts through to 2037?
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 7, 2021 22:34:41 GMT
Duwayne, Your Maxcon 1.0 model seems to take account of AMO and CO2 You don't seem to include any reference to the sun. Do you think the possible reduced solar cycle25 (2020-32), combined with a falling AMO, may result in lower temperatures than your model predicts through to 2037? AOC says that's NOT possible.
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Post by duwayne on Feb 8, 2021 19:46:08 GMT
Duwayne, Your Maxcon 1.0 model seems to take account of AMO and CO2 You don't seem to include any reference to the sun. Do you think the possible reduced solar cycle25 (2020-32), combined with a falling AMO, may result in lower temperatures than your model predicts through to 2037? Neilhamp, it's certainly possible. When the weather forecasters don't even mention tenths of a degree and are often wrong by several degrees, it's not hard to imagine my prediction being off by 0.1C sometime after 15 years. So far, to me, cycle 25 is looking like cycle 24. If you or anyone here sees convincing evidence that solar cycle 25 will push world temperatures down significantly in the next 10 years, make sure to post it.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 8, 2021 20:59:12 GMT
Duwayne, Your Maxcon 1.0 model seems to take account of AMO and CO2 You don't seem to include any reference to the sun. Do you think the possible reduced solar cycle25 (2020-32), combined with a falling AMO, may result in lower temperatures than your model predicts through to 2037? Neilhamp, it's certainly possible. When the weather forecasters don't even mention tenths of a degree and are often wrong by several degrees, it's not hard to imagine my prediction being off by 0.1C sometime after 15 years. So far, to me, cycle 25 is looking like cycle 24. If you or anyone here sees convincing evidence that solar cycle 25 will push world temperatures down significantly in the next 10 years, make sure to post it. We have no modern instrumentation of what multiple low solar cycles will likely accomplish. My logic is as follows. Global temperatures follow ENSO. ENSO events show cumulative positive magnitude (over decades) over multiple high cycles and cumulative negative magnitudes across low cycles. I speculate that this is due to cumulative solar inputs to the tropical oceans. I further speculate that the fall in tropical ocean temperatures observed across cycle 20 should be more pronounced across two low solar cycles. As the tropical oceans go, so go global temperatures. The hot tub is cooling.
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Post by neilhamp on Feb 8, 2021 20:59:59 GMT
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Post by duwayne on Feb 9, 2021 23:31:44 GMT
Neilhamp, it's certainly possible. When the weather forecasters don't even mention tenths of a degree and are often wrong by several degrees, it's not hard to imagine my prediction being off by 0.1C sometime after 15 years. So far, to me, cycle 25 is looking like cycle 24. If you or anyone here sees convincing evidence that solar cycle 25 will push world temperatures down significantly in the next 10 years, make sure to post it. We have no modern instrumentation of what multiple low solar cycles will likely accomplish. My logic is as follows. Global temperatures follow ENSO. ENSO events show cumulative positive magnitude (over decades) over multiple high cycles and cumulative negative magnitudes across low cycles. I speculate that this is due to cumulative solar inputs to the tropical oceans. I further speculate that the fall in tropical ocean temperatures observed across cycle 20 should be more pronounced across two low solar cycles. As the tropical oceans go, so go global temperatures. The hot tub is cooling. One of the provisos of my 0.1C average UAH anomaly prediction for 2007-2037 was if there is no “dimming of the sun”. That was an intentionally non-specific term since I didn’t know what to expect from all the talk of lower Solar cycles. So far, there’s not been much evidence of dimming apart from a lower level of sunspots. The ocean cooling cycle is offsetting greenhouse warming as it should in my opinion, but there is no net cooling. The ONI’s for Cycles 23 and 24 were pretty similar. So far Cycle 25 is looking similar. The UAH anomaly for Cycle 24 was 0.1C, right on my long term prediction. The Hadcrut sea surface temperature anomaly has actually climbed by 0.2C since 2007. I'm expecting some lower UAH anomalies in the next few months and we'll maybe see some effects of "dimming".
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