|
ENSO-2019
Mar 16, 2019 16:12:07 GMT
via mobile
Post by acidohm on Mar 16, 2019 16:12:07 GMT
I don't even bother registering the enso models....they offer no useful information.
Decent analysis ant 👍
|
|
|
Post by duwayne on Mar 16, 2019 17:39:00 GMT
I still think El Nino is cooked, and La Nina / Negative IOD this year, with 2010 as an analog. Timing is all wrong, but I see too many similarities. In 2010 the cold water and warm water were running about 3 weeks ahead, bu essentially the set up was the same, and I think the trade wind burst resulting form the warm Indian Ocean, and also two potential cyclones over the NT next week will get things moving. But check this out, there is a ton of cold water at 8 North. In November these were identical, but in the last 4 months this year has progressed slower, most of the cold water in 2010 was already in transition into the subsurface at the equator. This year it is building and is now slowly started to feed into the cold pool. Next 4 weeks will be crucial, I am waiting for models to respond to this and drop the El Nino, IMO I think its done. Ant42, were the top 2 charts meant to be identical?
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Mar 16, 2019 19:32:44 GMT
Naut and Ant. What are the direct links to your cross-longitude by depth temp anomaly charts? And can anyone link to them?
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Mar 16, 2019 21:48:45 GMT
Sorry Duwayne my bad, I posted the wrong one, here is the right one with 2010 comparison.
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Mar 16, 2019 21:51:48 GMT
Naut and Ant. What are the direct links to your cross-longitude by depth temp anomaly charts? And can anyone link to them? The link is here, use depth section, and then choose anomaly and it will give you the subsurface, these are the actual rather than modelled. www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/disdel/it is already set to depth temperature, but you can change it to show wind etc. Its a great site and is real time data, it lags by about 2 days..
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 17, 2019 7:12:43 GMT
Naut and Ant. What are the direct links to your cross-longitude by depth temp anomaly charts? And can anyone link to them? I must admit to being lazy and going to the collation of references at WUWT. If you go to WUWT and scroll down the right hand column there are pages of external references. This is the ENSO set of URLS wattsupwiththat.com/enso/So the latest from BOM does not appear to support the idea of a powerful El Nino. The heat seems to have been sucked out of the heat engine - that is a lot of cold water in those graphics. This supports the hypothesis that the atmospheric 'warmth' of the last few years was actually due to the oceans cooling; or my analogy of standing in the open door of the house measuring the 'outdoor temperature' as the warm from inside the house goes past and the house itself is getting colder. I have an uneasy feeling that the drop into cold is happening but everyone is getting carried away with values of the wrong metric. For those who have been here a long time - I had similar arguments with 'GLC' aka 'John Finn' saying we should be measuring ocean heat content.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Mar 17, 2019 12:38:06 GMT
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Apr 4, 2019 9:40:05 GMT
Still tracking 2010 if you ask me, in fact in the last 4 weeks it has drained out the heat quicker than in 2010. On the other hand, the waters int he subsurface in the West haven't raised up above 150 metres yet. And the huge cold pool is still at 8 north ready to enter the subsurface. This month is the key month, the next 4 weeks will tell us a lot.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Apr 4, 2019 14:38:51 GMT
Naut and Ant. What are the direct links to your cross-longitude by depth temp anomaly charts? And can anyone link to them? I must admit to being lazy and going to the collation of references at WUWT. If you go to WUWT and scroll down the right hand column there are pages of external references. This is the ENSO set of URLS wattsupwiththat.com/enso/So the latest from BOM does not appear to support the idea of a powerful El Nino. The heat seems to have been sucked out of the heat engine - that is a lot of cold water in those graphics. This supports the hypothesis that the atmospheric 'warmth' of the last few years was actually due to the oceans cooling; or my analogy of standing in the open door of the house measuring the 'outdoor temperature' as the warm from inside the house goes past and the house itself is getting colder. I have an uneasy feeling that the drop into cold is happening but everyone is getting carried away with values of the wrong metric. For those who have been here a long time - I had similar arguments with 'GLC' aka 'John Finn' saying we should be measuring ocean heat content. Seems like an apt analogy to me ... but I don't know why you'd think that the "sink" containing the oft quoted 99.9% of the planet's surficial thermal energy would have anything to do with atmospheric temperature. The ENSO time series, in comparison to solar activity (geomagnetic and flux) may provide some clues to periodic, location-specific releases to the atmosphere. If the magnitude of the ENSO index is any indicator, the Tropical East Pacific "Radiator" has been working overtime since 2000. And one might guess that, at some point, it might run out of "steam". That's a "technical" term IB. I haven't updated this one for awhile (and probably should), and forgetting the PDO values prior to about 1950, it does appear the NE Pacific surficial ocean temperatures run in sync with ENSO, and might also have something to do with the insertion of thermal heat and water vapor into the atmosphere. Shows that big shift in 1976 too. And, if you believe it, a comparable big drop in the 1940s. Would be nice if we had some similarly long (trustworthy) time series for the Indian Ocean and the West Pacific Warm Pool. And another thought. If tropospheric water vapor follows gross oceanic surface temperature and condenses out along dynamic edges that follow jet stream patterns, then those elevated levels and our increasingly "loopy" jets are dropping larger than normal amounts of liquid or frozen water onto surficial locations unused to such events. Is that the "grossly over-simplified" process whereby the troposphere comes back into balance with a cooling ocean? Or is it merely Charles Oscar II directing traffic like our current vested crop of genius's think?
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Apr 4, 2019 17:44:50 GMT
Not to forget that those 'loopy jets' are an increased path for Ferrel Cell cloud which not only precipitates water frozen or cold liquid but also increases the albedo of the earth. Buy One Get One Free
|
|
|
Post by nonentropic on Apr 4, 2019 18:28:53 GMT
The transport of moist warm tropical air to the poles is the key to the entire climate of the planet. The frequency of the blocking highs control this huge pipelines of water and heat going to the poles and cool dry air back. If you look at the global temps its very obvious when the poles are warm the tropics cool but due to the latent heat the average is above average and the reversal of this the opposite. oz4caster.wordpress.com/cfsr/ this shows it well.
|
|
ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
|
Post by ant42 on Apr 5, 2019 3:05:48 GMT
Correct, and its usually in Northern Hemisphere winters. Thats why you see the biggest anomalies then, as the small changes in water vapour have a big effect more when its minus 30 than when it's zero.
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Apr 5, 2019 8:16:30 GMT
Meridionality seems to be a feature of low solar. Warm air advection to the poles is a known mechanism to generate blocking which can reverse the westerly flow. Meridionality can cause very confusing weather in N Europe. As this winter we were under the northward transport of air, we get pretty mild. Despite this, the same pressumed cause would bring us bitter cold with a 500 mile shift in pressure location.
Weather is a fickle beast and the general public take what they see outside their door as a representation of the greater world, with absolutely no understanding of the greater mechanics. This is also certainly not helped by a complete under reporting of cold weather by the media.
|
|
|
Post by missouriboy on Apr 5, 2019 9:07:17 GMT
Meridionality seems to be a feature of low solar. Warm air advection to the poles is a known mechanism to generate blocking which can reverse the westerly flow. Meridionality can cause very confusing weather in N Europe. As this winter we were under the northward transport of air, we get pretty mild. Despite this, the same pressumed cause would bring us bitter cold with a 500 mile shift in pressure location. Weather is a fickle beast and the general public take what they see outside their door as a representation of the greater world, with absolutely no understanding of the greater mechanics. This is also certainly not helped by a complete under reporting of cold weather by the media. Yes. And yet Northwest Europe is SO lucky to have that relatively warm body of water continually off shore that keeps you more like Seattle than Central Canada or Russia.
|
|
|
Post by acidohm on Apr 5, 2019 16:29:55 GMT
Meridionality seems to be a feature of low solar. Warm air advection to the poles is a known mechanism to generate blocking which can reverse the westerly flow. Meridionality can cause very confusing weather in N Europe. As this winter we were under the northward transport of air, we get pretty mild. Despite this, the same pressumed cause would bring us bitter cold with a 500 mile shift in pressure location. Weather is a fickle beast and the general public take what they see outside their door as a representation of the greater world, with absolutely no understanding of the greater mechanics. This is also certainly not helped by a complete under reporting of cold weather by the media. Yes. And yet Northwest Europe is SO lucky to have that relatively warm body of water continually off shore that keeps you more like Seattle than Central Canada or Russia. Yeah, that true! Possibly why myself and others get so obsessed with cold weather, it doesnt happen much!
|
|