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Post by sigurdur on Apr 5, 2019 17:15:19 GMT
It only happens sometimes here. Otherwise we consider it "seasonal".
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 6, 2019 19:06:50 GMT
Are we seeing a decay of the El Nino in the Eastern Pacific. earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-103.50,-9.42,714/loc=-78.733,4.588 That cool patch has been noted by others but what I initially thought was little more than a wind effect is growing and tends to support the view that the thickness of the warm water is less than impressive. the warm blob in the mid Pacific is still present but it to is flagging to say the least. This has been a very strange El Nino and Joe B has been surprised by it also. We in NZ have had a warm pool of sea water around us for 2 years now and our summers have been exceptional. blocking highs have sat above us and all the cyclones have been meticulously directed towards Ratty. Australia needs the rain us less so. There is only so much heat that can be ejected and we have now had two in a row. El Nino's that is, the exhaust pipe of the planet and interestingly at the Equator unlike the big ones at the poles.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 7, 2019 4:39:15 GMT
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 10, 2019 17:26:08 GMT
World SSTs - April 10, 2019 (#1), April 5, 2016 (#2) and March 1, 1985 (#3)Are we going back to something more like 1985? And how long does it take to get there? This (4/19) may be the best delineation of what very well may be geothermal inputs to ocean temps northeast of Iceland. Any other opinions on how that occurs? And yes, I know they are anomalies. Prior to the Great Climate Shift of ~1976-80, was the warmer anomaly water well south of the equator? Was the shift itself at least partially a cyclical movement of warmer water northward? Does Bary have something to say about that? Will we see a similar shift of warmer northern hemisphere water southward as we continue our low solar cycles? Or will they just slowly cool, largely in place? The downward temperature shift from ~1960 was rather sharp ... as was the return about 1976. Is this a gravity thingy?
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Post by Ratty on Apr 11, 2019 0:59:27 GMT
World SSTs - April 10, 2019 (#1), April 5, 2016 (#2) and March 1, 1985 (#3)Are we going back to something more like 1985 ? And how long does it take to get there ?This (4/19) may be the best delineation of what very well may be geothermal inputs to ocean temps northeast of Iceland. Any other opinions on how that occurs ? And yes, I know they are anomalies. Prior to the Great Climate Shift of ~1976-80, was the warmer anomaly water well south of the equator ? Was the shift itself at least partially a cyclical movement of warmer water northward ? Does Bary have something to say about that ? Will we see a similar shift of warmer northern hemisphere water southward as we continue our low solar cycles ? Or will they just slowly cool, largely in place ? The downward temperature shift from ~1960 was rather sharp ... as was the return about 1976. Is this a gravity thingy ? [ Snip ] I went out for a while, came back and still there are no answers. Come on, people.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 11, 2019 1:11:43 GMT
World SSTs - April 10, 2019 (#1), April 5, 2016 (#2) and March 1, 1985 (#3)Are we going back to something more like 1985 ? And how long does it take to get there ?This (4/19) may be the best delineation of what very well may be geothermal inputs to ocean temps northeast of Iceland. Any other opinions on how that occurs ? And yes, I know they are anomalies. Prior to the Great Climate Shift of ~1976-80, was the warmer anomaly water well south of the equator ? Was the shift itself at least partially a cyclical movement of warmer water northward ? Does Bary have something to say about that ? Will we see a similar shift of warmer northern hemisphere water southward as we continue our low solar cycles ? Or will they just slowly cool, largely in place ? The downward temperature shift from ~1960 was rather sharp ... as was the return about 1976. Is this a gravity thingy ? [ Snip ] I went out for a while, came back and still there are no answers. Come on, people. I've used up my question mark allowance for the month. So ... what Senor Ratty said.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 11, 2019 1:17:01 GMT
I went out for a while, came back and still there are no answers. Come on, people. I've used up my question mark allowance for the month. So ... what Senor Ratty said. Si ......
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 11, 2019 17:41:41 GMT
World SSTs - April 10, 2019 (#1), April 5, 2016 (#2) and March 1, 1985 (#3)Are we going back to something more like 1985 ? And how long does it take to get there ?This (4/19) may be the best delineation of what very well may be geothermal inputs to ocean temps northeast of Iceland. Any other opinions on how that occurs ? And yes, I know they are anomalies. Prior to the Great Climate Shift of ~1976-80, was the warmer anomaly water well south of the equator ? Was the shift itself at least partially a cyclical movement of warmer water northward ? Does Bary have something to say about that ? Will we see a similar shift of warmer northern hemisphere water southward as we continue our low solar cycles ? Or will they just slowly cool, largely in place ? The downward temperature shift from ~1960 was rather sharp ... as was the return about 1976. Is this a gravity thingy ? [ Snip ] I went out for a while, came back and still there are no answers. Come on, people. I would think it is a mix of the 'gravity thingy' and 'length of day' (which of course may be a proxy for gravity) and if you speak with sufficient gravity in a circumlocution then Bary is likely not far away.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 11, 2019 21:17:27 GMT
[ Snip ] I would think it is a mix of the 'gravity thingy' and 'length of day' (which of course may be a proxy for gravity) and if you speak with sufficient gravity in a circumlocution then Bary is likely not far away. There. That wasn't so hard, was it? Glad you've cleared it up.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 16, 2019 21:44:36 GMT
"El Niño Conditions Persist in the Pacific Ocean
An El Niño that began to form last fall has matured and is now fully entrenched across the Pacific Ocean. Changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) brought about by an El Niño affect the atmosphere, resulting in distinctive changes in the rainfall pattern across the Pacific Basin. These changes show up as anomalies or deviations in NASA’s analysis of climatological rainfall."wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/16/el-nino-conditions-persist-in-the-pacific-ocean/My bold
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Post by Ratty on Apr 17, 2019 0:51:10 GMT
BoM says still on alert: ENSO Outlook An alert system for the El Niño–Southern OscillationThe ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño forming from autumn is around 70%; triple the normal likelihood.
The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean remains warmer than average, close to El Niño thresholds, but the atmosphere is yet to show a consistent El Niño-like response. While climate models forecast El Niño-like ocean temperatures for the remainder of the southern autumn and early winter - which could stimulate and El Niño response in the atmosphere - most models indicate a cooling through winter, with only three of eight models still forecasting El Niño-like warmth in spring. This indicates that if El Niño does develop, it is likely to be short-lived and weak.
El Niño ALERT is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur; it is an indication that most typical precursors of an event are in place.
Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 23, 2019 17:09:54 GMT
Does anyone know where I can find the latest PDO values? The site I have used is not being updated.
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Post by duwayne on Apr 23, 2019 19:41:54 GMT
Sorry Duwayne my bad, I posted the wrong one, here is the right one with 2010 comparison. Ant42, I presume your observation that 2019 is looking a lot like 2010 means you expect the current El Nino to fade out soon to at least a neutral condition. What do you think about the possibility of a La Nina later this year? Is it possible that the super La Nina I have been expecting will show up in 2019-2020? The Kelvin wave is just beginning an upwelling phase which could bring some cooling over the next few months in the Nino3.4 area. I think this could kick off a super La Nina, but I’m not ready to predict it just yet. I note that NOAA and Astromet currently predict the El Nino will continue into 2020.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 24, 2019 0:15:31 GMT
Sorry Duwayne my bad, I posted the wrong one, here is the right one with 2010 comparison. Ant42, I presume your observation that 2019 is looking a lot like 2010 means you expect the current El Nino to fade out soon to at least a neutral condition. What do you think about the possibility of a La Nina later this year? Is it possible that the super La Nina I have been expecting will show up in 2019-2020? The Kelvin wave is just beginning an upwelling phase which could bring some cooling over the next few months in the Nino3.4 area. I think this could kick off a super La Nina, but I’m not ready to predict it just yet. I note that NOAA and Astromet currently predict the El Nino will continue into 2020. According to Astro, the large La Nina will occur in 2021-2022.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 25, 2019 6:23:59 GMT
Does anyone know where I can find the latest PDO values? The site I have used is not being updated. Here you go DuWayne. This one is current through 3/19 and goes back to 1854 for whatever that's worth. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/
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