Hmmm...you have an interesting theory, and as you say, it is a simplified model.
If your predictions for SC24 pan out, (or even if they don't), I'd encourage you to incorporate the movements of other planets into your model and see if it can help define the predictions a bit better.
Solar cycle modulation, what an interesting topic, the so called most knowledgeable speculate its randomly generated from within. You would not expect the wave like patterns if it was random surely?
I have done some work on Neptune & Uranus....but I am not sure if they are involved with modulation, perhaps more likely a cause of Grand Minima I suspect.
I have just recently plotted angular momentum graphs on the Sun back to 900AD, and every occurrence of N+U has resulted in lower sunspot activity, maybe even during the medieval warm period which was a time of very usual line ups.
I have an article posted on a blog I am looking after, with the latest results...check it out, we may have some similar theories.
There is a link on the blog to a missing SC4 paper, that you may find interesting, also N+U were doing there thing back then....just like now.
I couldnt be more wrong...thanks bigbud you have given me the clear head to see what modulates the solar cycles....it is Neptune and Uranus controlling Jupiter and Saturn. Its been before my eyes all the time.
Its about rotational speed of the sun, which is affected by the Angular Momentum of the Jovian Planets. Neptune and Uranus are the controllers of the 2 main drivers creating Angular momentum, as simple as that. The sunspot cycles curve follows that control. They can add or take away that momentum.
could be nobrainer. Your model looks very interesting I have not made any opinion myself about the influence from Uranus-Neptun, or Saturn-Uranus, or other constellations... will have a closer look first.
But this is crystal clear: The Jupiter-period has great influence on the solar cycle, as well as the Jupiter-Saturn period.
Tilmari has made a good study of the Jovian period, and I have used his data to make this plot (the scale is degrees, period of 11,86 years. Notice 3 periods of positive second derivative):
And I made this plot of the average SSN during the 19,8 year Jupiter-Saturn synodic period. This shows two distinct periods with a tendency to growing sunspotnumber.
wow... some pieces are really falling into place! How does it look when these two averages are added but there are still some pieces missing in the puzzle.
As one of the potential effects of the movement of Jupiter and Saturn (and the other planets) will be the position and direction of movement of the Solar System barycenter. Is there any way of using your information to identify that motion relative to the Sun and the rotation of the Sun and correlate it to the solar activity?
The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be. Douglas Adams
nautonnier At the moment I am not motivated to look at any barycenter-calculations, but could be that my results will lead me to that
Here is a plot of the average monthly SSN during the 45,4 year Saturn-Uranus synodic cycle. With so few periods it is hard to say if this really results in 4 solar cycles, or if the connection will get out of sync and flatten the average curve... but again a very interesting plot!
nobrainer could you make a "mometum for dummies" summary of how to interpret that momentum-diagram?
What does a momentum top mean for the solar cycle, and what does the hight of the top mean, and so on. What kind of prediction does the model make for the next cycles and period 2010-2040? (too busy with my own model to go in-depth in others...
It takes a little while to get your head around it...but basically the wave pattern (momentum) is controlled by J&S. J+S on the top of wave (strong) and J opposing S on the bottom (weaker).
That strength or weakness is directly controlled by N+U. When N/U are opposing each other everything is balance, but as they start to come together they dramatically change the effect on the Sun (more or less momentum), possibly altering rotation speed and cycle strength.
Your work with J/S angles is relevant (verifies alignment strength) and could be used to predict the strength of grand Minimia cycles perhaps.
nobrainer sounds very plausible. I ´m still focused on the solar cycle, and have the longer supercycles a bit on hold.
Here is a bit messy diagram... had to make a quick comparison of the averages from Ju, JuSa and SaUr. A rough forecast seems possible, and fits pretty good with my forecast here home.broadpark.no/~elic/solarcycle3.html
hmm... I wonder if SC24 will fall asleep again, pushing the minimum furter ahead...