dresi
Level 3 Rank
Posts: 120
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Post by dresi on Oct 5, 2009 13:10:08 GMT
can cause weather extremes. [/i][/quote] Interesting. This year here in Czech Republic is definitely full of extremes. We had really wet start of the year. Lots of snow and rain. Then torrential rains and floods in summer. Lot of people died. And now terrible drought since beggining of September. What next?
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Post by thingychambers69 on Oct 5, 2009 19:19:49 GMT
Yeah, due to the nature of this minimum we're basically in a REALLY long hale winter. I suspect even next year will have many of the same conditions of a hale winter (2007-2010 is one hell of a hale winter). Also, whatever the sun's affect on climate, if Livingston and Penn's projections hold true, we're about to find out. Although its difficult to get anything concrete from short term observations (which are all over the place for the moment) I'm very concerned about what direction temperatures will take. I kind of assume a slight incline just on the off chance that CO2 actually does have some marginal impact (not to mention, temperatures have been going that way anyway) but I don't actually have any fear of warmer temperatures. What worries me most is COLD. Conditions are perfect for a 1-2-3-4 punch as the solar cycle and PDO have already switched and the AMO/NAO will be switching while the sun and PDO are in modes that should cause cooling. While sea ice offers little albedo feedback at it's current anemic extent, expansion of the sea ice would produce ever-increasing feedback. The warm oceans will also take quite a while to cool back off...and would produce massive amounts of water vapor and clouds that could not only cause additional cooling but fuel explosive growth of glaciers and ice sheets. I don't think its TOO likely that the ice will surge like that but such conditions (unlike warming) are actually worthy of fear. Which is what I've been saying to people all along. A warming planet would not be a problem. Its the cold everyone should be worried about. When does an entire country come to a standstill? When its cold.
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Post by itsthesunstupid on Oct 5, 2009 20:48:57 GMT
I don't think its TOO likely that the ice will surge like that but such conditions (unlike warming) are actually worthy of fear. Like you, I don't think there is anything to fear on either side of the potential climate direction. I do believe we are in a colder trend, but in the normal ebb and flow of climate fluctuations it is extremely rare for massive shifts of catastrophic proportions. I refuse to engage in the same kind of alarm-ism against AGW that the true believers use in advancing their religion.
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Post by boxman on Oct 5, 2009 21:14:11 GMT
can cause weather extremes. [/i][/quote] Interesting. This year here in Czech Republic is definitely full of extremes. We had really wet start of the year. Lots of snow and rain. Then torrential rains and floods in summer. Lot of people died. And now terrible drought since beggining of September. What next?[/quote] I think we stole your precipitation. Here in trondheim, norway we have had twice as much precipitation than normal for september. It has pretty much been raining constantly since first week of september. We even had a few thunderstorms late in september and also one a few days ago. Thunderstorms this late in fall is very unusual here. Temps as of lately have been several degrees below normal as well.
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Post by matt on Oct 6, 2009 3:01:53 GMT
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Post by kiwistonewall on Oct 6, 2009 3:30:12 GMT
I've colour coded the Alaskan ice surface chart: Where Red=ONLY old ice, & > 60% Orange = old+New, & > 30% Green = old+New, >20%, OR New, >30% Blue = Mostly New, 10-30% This helps to visualise the satellite images such as: www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=eand makes the strange hook of ice, more understandable - and also points out (one again) that the radar doesn't detect the newer ice. Attachments:
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Post by thingychambers69 on Oct 6, 2009 10:50:36 GMT
Oct 07 Attachments:
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Post by thingychambers69 on Oct 6, 2009 10:51:11 GMT
Oct 08 Attachments:
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Post by thingychambers69 on Oct 6, 2009 10:53:31 GMT
As from October 5th. Lets see if this yearly increase continues. Attachments:
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Post by jimcripwell on Oct 6, 2009 14:41:09 GMT
NSIDC seem to be up to their usual spin in the October 6th press release. I find the following extracts.
"NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, “It’s nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there’s no reason to think that we’re headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades.”"
"While Arctic sea ice extent varies from year to year because of changeable atmospheric conditions, ice extent has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past thirty years. During this time, ice extent has declined at a rate of 11.2 percent per decade during September"
"NSIDC Lead Scientist Ted Scambos said, “A lot of people are going to look at that graph of ice extent and think that we've turned the corner on climate change. But the underlying conditions are still very worrisome.”"
From my viewing of the data presented by NSIDC, Chyrosphere Today and JAXA, Arctic sea ice has nealry recovered to the pre-2007 levels. The amount of multiyear ice has increased over the last two years; since the unusual wind event in 2007 which blew lots of multiyear (up to 7 year old ice) out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean, where it melted. One cannot make 7 year ice in 2 years, so it is to be expected that the ice now in the Arctic Ocean is more vulnerable to melting in the summer than it was in 2006. But my reading of the data shows we are well on the way to recovering to pre-2007 levels, and I simply do not agree that the data shows that the Arctic could be ice free in the summer in the "next few decades". Even if this trend continues, at 11% per decade, it will be more like 2080 before the Arctic is ice free in the summer.
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Post by magellan on Oct 6, 2009 16:16:31 GMT
NSIDC seem to be up to their usual spin in the October 6th press release. I find the following extracts. "NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, “It’s nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there’s no reason to think that we’re headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades.”" "While Arctic sea ice extent varies from year to year because of changeable atmospheric conditions, ice extent has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past thirty years. During this time, ice extent has declined at a rate of 11.2 percent per decade during September" "NSIDC Lead Scientist Ted Scambos said, “A lot of people are going to look at that graph of ice extent and think that we've turned the corner on climate change. But the underlying conditions are still very worrisome.”" From my viewing of the data presented by NSIDC, Chyrosphere Today and JAXA, Arctic sea ice has nealry recovered to the pre-2007 levels. The amount of multiyear ice has increased over the last two years; since the unusual wind event in 2007 which blew lots of multiyear (up to 7 year old ice) out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean, where it melted. One cannot make 7 year ice in 2 years, so it is to be expected that the ice now in the Arctic Ocean is more vulnerable to melting in the summer than it was in 2006. But my reading of the data shows we are well on the way to recovering to pre-2007 levels, and I simply do not agree that the data shows that the Arctic could be ice free in the summer in the "next few decades". Even if this trend continues, at 11% per decade, it will be more like 2080 before the Arctic is ice free in the summer. Yes that's rich. This is the same NSIDC that last year was worried about 2008 being an "ice free" Arctic. Then we were told 2013, but no mention of that now. Had these experts predicted 2007 loss years ahead they may have some credibility, but instead of being honest, they continue with the party line hubris.
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Post by nautonnier on Oct 6, 2009 16:21:01 GMT
NSIDC seem to be up to their usual spin in the October 6th press release. I find the following extracts. "NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze said, “It’s nice to see a little recovery over the past couple years, but there’s no reason to think that we’re headed back to conditions seen back in the 1970s. We still expect to see ice-free summers sometime in the next few decades.”" "While Arctic sea ice extent varies from year to year because of changeable atmospheric conditions, ice extent has shown a dramatic overall decline over the past thirty years. During this time, ice extent has declined at a rate of 11.2 percent per decade during September" "NSIDC Lead Scientist Ted Scambos said, “A lot of people are going to look at that graph of ice extent and think that we've turned the corner on climate change. But the underlying conditions are still very worrisome.”" From my viewing of the data presented by NSIDC, Chyrosphere Today and JAXA, Arctic sea ice has nealry recovered to the pre-2007 levels. The amount of multiyear ice has increased over the last two years; since the unusual wind event in 2007 which blew lots of multiyear (up to 7 year old ice) out of the Arctic Ocean into the Atlantic Ocean, where it melted. One cannot make 7 year ice in 2 years, so it is to be expected that the ice now in the Arctic Ocean is more vulnerable to melting in the summer than it was in 2006. But my reading of the data shows we are well on the way to recovering to pre-2007 levels, and I simply do not agree that the data shows that the Arctic could be ice free in the summer in the "next few decades". Even if this trend continues, at 11% per decade, it will be more like 2080 before the Arctic is ice free in the summer. Perhaps someone should ask NSIDC Director and Senior Scientist Mark Serreze what cycle lengths there are in the increase and decrease of Arctic ice and can he give the length of each cycle? A simple request
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Post by matt on Oct 6, 2009 19:29:58 GMT
Even if this trend continues, at 11% per decade, it will be more like 2080 before the Arctic is ice free in the summer. Yes, that's a reasonable guess. Unfortunately, thickness is shrinking faster than extent, so 2030 is probably a better guess. So we have 2013, 2030, and 2080. Extreme end bounds and a best estimate?
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Post by jimcripwell on Oct 6, 2009 19:37:07 GMT
matt writes "thickness is shrinking faster than extent,,"
I think you need to be more specific. Prior to 2007, ice area in the Arctic just got smaller, and there was little change in thickness, so far as I am aware. As I have noted many times, in 2007 a lot of multiyear ice was blown out of the Arctic Ocean. This resulted in much thinner ice being present at minimum. However, in the last two years, the ice has been getting thicker. So I cannot see how you can conclude that "thickness is shrinking faster than extent,".
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Post by woodstove on Oct 6, 2009 20:38:16 GMT
Even if this trend continues, at 11% per decade, it will be more like 2080 before the Arctic is ice free in the summer. Yes, that's a reasonable guess. Unfortunately, thickness is shrinking faster than extent, so 2030 is probably a better guess. So we have 2013, 2030, and 2080. Extreme end bounds and a best estimate? Best estimate: 2007 will have been the minimum sea ice extent until at least 2055. Ice-free Arctic basin in summer? Not during this interglacial, my friend. Eemian, yes -- Holocene, no.
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