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Post by neilhamp on Apr 7, 2009 3:33:08 GMT
Hmm - amongst all their spin NSIDC make the following observation "While ice older than two years reached record lows, the fraction of second-year sea ice increased compared to last winter. Some of this second-year ice will survive the summer melt season to replenish the Arctic's store of older ice; however, in recent years less young ice has made it through the summer. To restore the amount of older ice to pre-2000 levels, large amounts of this young ice would need to endure through summer for several years in a row."
We can only wait to see what the ice extent minimum will be in September. Its below 2008 at the moment. Will it remain below 2008 through to September 2009? Anyone like to try a prediction?
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Post by jimg on Apr 7, 2009 16:45:40 GMT
Although it's not likely to happen, I wonder what the press release would say if the current ice extent should cross the 1979-2000 average.
But alas, it must only be weather...
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 8, 2009 2:25:47 GMT
Steve Goddard has an excellent summary of the current position re ice in the Arctic on "Watt's up with that"
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Post by jimcripwell on Apr 8, 2009 13:50:22 GMT
Let me post a mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. I honestly believed that when the Catlin expedition set out, they were a bunch of professionals, trying to do serious scientific work. Now I can see that they are a bunch of amateurs, out for the sake of propoganda. Rather like Lawrence Pugh. At least Lawrence had the sense to go into the Arctic in late summer, when conditions are merely brutal. The Catlin people have gone in, in early spring, with inadequate equipment. Let us hope this next resupply mission has the sense to leave all the equipment behind, and fly the humans back to civilization. However, it does bring up another question of the latest propoganda salvo from NSIDC. Last year, Sheldon Drobot, associated with NSIDC, forecast that there was a 65% probability there would be less ice at minimum in 2008 compared with 2007. Mark Serreze forecast that the North Pole could be ice free before the end of the summer. Neither forecast was accurate. What does NSIDC hope to accolplish by their latest propoganda? After all, in as little as 4 months we will have an idea whether they are right or not. At least RealClimate has the sense to make 30 year forecasts, when , by the time we know what actually happened, everyone will have forgotten the forecast. Just curious.
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Post by neilhamp on Apr 9, 2009 18:31:00 GMT
Catalin have mentioned their drilling work!
NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center have released their latest sea ice data for the Arctic, showing that the decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice cover is continuing. The new evidence, from satellite observations, also shows that the ice cap is thinning.
Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research.
“The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”.
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Post by icefisher on Apr 9, 2009 20:06:54 GMT
Catalin have mentioned their drilling work! NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center have released their latest sea ice data for the Arctic, showing that the decade-long trend of shrinking sea ice cover is continuing. The new evidence, from satellite observations, also shows that the ice cap is thinning. Catlin Arctic Survey expedition leader Pen Hadow says that, 37 days into the Project and having drilled into the ice in hundreds of different spots, his observations would seem to support this latest research. “The drilling experiments I’m doing are showing the ice to be between 1.5 and 2 metres thick”, he told Independent Television News. “Scientists say that means it will not last the summer melt”. So can somebody explain why the 1 meter thick ice that froze during the winter of 07/08 did not melt during the summer of 08? Those folks out on the ice seem to be suffering from the increasingly thickening ice. . . .so do they have a crystal ball or something?
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Post by gettingchilly on Apr 9, 2009 20:57:42 GMT
"At least Lawrence had the sense to go into the Arctic in late summer, when conditions are merely brutal. The Catlin people have gone in, in early spring, with inadequate equipment."
He has done this before in 2003 and went in late and had to be rescued from a floating block of ice. I guess he just ran out of money after all 2003 is a long time ago if you are living off sponsorship money!
I think he (allegedly) went in early this time so he would not have to be rescued from the melt. I say (allegedly) as there is now a serious debate starting as to whether they are actually there at all. There is a very interesting thread running on watts.
Must admit I just they were typical job shy Harrow rich boys but they may have gone for broke on this one.
Hoax or not, that is the question now.
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Post by woodstove on Apr 10, 2009 12:53:10 GMT
"At least Lawrence had the sense to go into the Arctic in late summer, when conditions are merely brutal. The Catlin people have gone in, in early spring, with inadequate equipment." He has done this before in 2003 and went in late and had to be rescued from a floating block of ice. I guess he just ran out of money after all 2003 is a long time ago if you are living off sponsorship money! I think he (allegedly) went in early this time so he would not have to be rescued from the melt. I say (allegedly) as there is now a serious debate starting as to whether they are actually there at all. There is a very interesting thread running on watts. Must admit I just they were typical job shy Harrow rich boys but they may have gone for broke on this one. Hoax or not, that is the question now. Having watched video of the team, their breath freezing the inside of their tent, their stove so loud they could barely be heard over it, their stress written on their faces and audible in their voices, I am not among those who consider the expedition to be a hoax. I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy. I conducted a phone interview yesterday with the chief of communications, who knew less about hypothermia -- and the team's condition -- than most of the people on this site (and wuwt). My post about the interview is here: talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/
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Post by gridley on Apr 10, 2009 15:07:40 GMT
Having watched video of the team, their breath freezing the inside of their tent, their stove so loud they could barely be heard over it, their stress written on their faces and audible in their voices, I am not among those who consider the expedition to be a hoax. I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy. I conducted a phone interview yesterday with the chief of communications, who knew less about hypothermia -- and the team's condition -- than most of the people on this site (and wuwt). My post about the interview is here: talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/While I have no reason to believe the expedition is a hoax, a quick viewing of the movie Apollo 13 will show you people's breath frosting, tension written on their faces...
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Post by woodstove on Apr 10, 2009 15:25:19 GMT
Having watched video of the team, their breath freezing the inside of their tent, their stove so loud they could barely be heard over it, their stress written on their faces and audible in their voices, I am not among those who consider the expedition to be a hoax. I am, on the other hand, among those who consider it to be badly run, with an ill-informed, lightly dishonest p.r. machine that could lead to tragedy. I conducted a phone interview yesterday with the chief of communications, who knew less about hypothermia -- and the team's condition -- than most of the people on this site (and wuwt). My post about the interview is here: talkingabouttheweather.wordpress.com/2009/04/09/205/While I have no reason to believe the expedition is a hoax, a quick viewing of the movie Apollo 13 will show you people's breath frosting, tension written on their faces... Hi Gridley. Here's the video: www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/gallery_video.aspx?id=55People will draw their own conclusions. Best, Harold
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Post by gettingchilly on Apr 10, 2009 19:13:55 GMT
Woodstove "Having watched video of the team, their breath freezing the inside of their tent, their stove so loud they could barely be heard over it, their stress written on their faces and audible in their voices, I am not among those who consider the expedition to be a hoax."
We at least in this video segment they are clearly somewhere cold as their breath is now visible, if you watch the earlier ones (at -35c it was not). I used to believe that they were there and lets face it he has already been there once & nearly died so it's totally within the realms of reality that he was there again. Stoves are always really loud in a tent and breath freezes anywhere below zero so lets see some outside shots preferably with a time and sun position or a night time clear sky shot so we can get back to believing them. I'm totally open to being brought back on board but right now I'm feeling really uncomfortable with this expedition.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Apr 10, 2009 23:20:45 GMT
strangely, the Cryosphere site shows the Arctic ice GROWING in April, (though that site may be few days behind Jaxa) arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/The Bering sea seems to be growing with the Cryosphere, but Jaxa images appear to show this shrinking. The anomaly is growing even faster (as the mean is shrinking at this time) - and the total ice anomaly (N+S) is heading toward 1 mill sq kms. From Jaxa data: Likely ice extent will go mostly sideways for next few weeks.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Apr 11, 2009 0:04:28 GMT
Quote from woodstove's interview: " When asked whether any sea ice data (live streaming data had been promised prior to the expedition) could be made available, Macrae explained that Catlin had decided to hold off on that for the time being. “We will be putting some data up onto the website, when we think it’s substantial enough to provide something of interest.”
Thick ice (30-60metres! from those photos) is certainly not of interest to the expedition sponsors. I guess that they are hoping that there will be only 30 or 40 kms of thick ice followed by several 100kms of thin ice. That would enable them to excuse the ice mountains. Some hope. I suspect we'll get some data after the expedition is over, but much will be 'lost' by cold temperature equipment failure. ;D
They are certainly not going to release the initial data at any time soon. It is all going to be very embarrassing for them.
Sometimes, the paranoid are right!
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Post by hilbert on Apr 11, 2009 15:18:28 GMT
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Post by matt on Apr 11, 2009 21:45:51 GMT
Last year, Sheldon Drobot, associated with NSIDC, forecast that there was a 65% probability there would be less ice at minimum in 2008 compared with 2007. It depends on how one measures. 2008 had lower ice volume than 2007. The forecast was accurate.
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