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Post by itsonlysteam on Feb 1, 2009 6:38:56 GMT
What I find interesting is the one graph showing the mid to late 70's being the coldest. That is what I remember and this winter is turning out to keep me from being a liar when I describe the climate in central Alberta (exaggerate the cold) despite the warm spell we are having now with a good chinook ridge and jet stream a bit North. The Peace River ice front is a proxy for the weather here. environment.alberta.ca/forecasting/RiverIce/index.html(look at 'Most Recent Ice Observation Report' for Peace River) From what I see in Siberia www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=Verhojansk%2C+Russia&searchType=WEATHERI think we'll get one more good blast of Arctic Outflows for Vancouver before February is finished. What I can't figure out is I didn't think the Great Lakes Region was going to get this kind of winter until the AMO switched cold like the PDO has (with back to back to back La Nina's). Lots of fun
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Post by jimg on Feb 1, 2009 7:25:54 GMT
Hi Steam. From the graph on page 5 of the report, it looks like the ice this year has traveled the furthest in some time.
Does that sound about right?
Stay warm!
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 2, 2009 9:56:06 GMT
The remaining ice free area of Superior is only 1-2C so is on the point of freezing over.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 2, 2009 10:14:51 GMT
As cold as 1985? (1985 was the minimum two cycles ago - the previous Hale winter.) The western tip of Lake Superior has frozen over in December for the first time in recent memory. There’s also thickening ice in the channel between Bayfield and Madeline Island, and the Madeline Island Ferry Line is about to close for the season — the first time it’s closed in December since 1985.3pts.wordpress.com/2008/12/26/western-part-of-lake-superior-freezes-over/
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 2, 2009 19:03:50 GMT
2nd Feb: Ice is thinning, or receding over the great lakes, though water column is cold. Still away ahead of the mean extent for this time of year.
The icy touch has moved to Europe for now.
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Post by magellan on Feb 3, 2009 0:15:21 GMT
High of 10 Wednesday, but by Friday we'll be in the upper 30's and into low 40's by next Monday. How long it will last is anyone's guess.
This is acting like the January thaw that never was this year; a welcome relief.
Average January temp for our region was 14 deg F; hard to believe. It is doubtful we'll see much more if any freezing of the Lakes.
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Post by woodstove on Feb 3, 2009 0:41:02 GMT
Joe Bastardi is saying that mid-February to mid-March will be "rough sledding" for much of the United States and Europe -- renewed cold and snow.
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Post by magellan on Feb 3, 2009 1:06:53 GMT
Joe Bastardi is saying that mid-February to mid-March will be "rough sledding" for much of the United States and Europe -- renewed cold and snow. I don't doubt that, but we usually get rain with these warm snaps and the ice disappears rather quickly. Had there not been that late December warming and rain, the ice would be further advanced than what it is. Still, it is quite a site and for the U.P. this winter has been wicked; even for us trolls below the bridge.
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Post by aj1983 on Feb 3, 2009 1:24:28 GMT
Here in western Europe, winter has been cold until now, but definately lost it's bite since mid January. It is not possible to go skating anywhere in the Netherlands in the next week. Temperatures will likely rise to normal or slightly above, and no extreme cold can be found anywhere in Europe. They have been slightly below normal the end of January and roughly 3/4 of december, slightly above normal mid January and way below normal end of december/beginning of January.
January was 2C colder than average, I think the 26th coldest since 1900, but coldest since 1997 (which was way colder). First time ice skating on the canals since that year, but that used to be normal. December was just over 1C colder than average. Last year January was almost 5C warmer than average, just like most previous years. It have experienced terribly warm winters lately, but some have still broken snowfall records (a lot more precip than usual).
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 6, 2009 2:22:24 GMT
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Post by magellan on Feb 6, 2009 3:15:20 GMT
It's been cold all week. Yesterday at 5:00 it was 5F. This morning at 7:30 it was -20F. Down the road about 8 miles it was -25. We will be experiencing some major warming by Saturday (up to 45), and rain to boot. Depending on how much rain, the ice may be severely affected, at least on the rivers at first. It doesn't take much to screw up an ice lubbers day. It is forecast to be above freezing most days next week during the day. By Feb 14, temps will have (reportedly) dropped again and on with the rest of winter. From that point it is hit and miss in most years, but in March traditionally we get the worst snow storms of the winter. These observations are for mid-Michigan near Saginaw Bay. The further north, the less warming generally, but not always the rule. Like they say, if you want to experience all four seasons in one week (sometimes one day), come to Michigan. In 1995 I went on a fishing trip in the U.P. (upper peninsula) during the week of June 14. In St. Ignace (Mackinaw bridge) it was 80F and beautiful. About 20 miles into the trip we hit a wall of flame of 105F. Now that may not seem like a big deal, but it was horrible for us Michiganders where we rarely see above 90 even in the L.P. Any hopes of catching fish were dashed. Personally I love winter and lots of snow, but to be honest this bitter cold is getting old. Edit: I just checked some forecasts around the state. It looks like the L.P. (where us trolls live) will see similar temps throughout the region. Above the bridge around Lake Superior temps will be about 10 deg less, but still above freezing for a few days, but not much rain. So IMO there may be significant ice reductions on all lakes except Superior and northern side of Michigan/Huron. With near certainty many rivers will be ruined for fishing etc. which can bring warmer waters into the lakes. It all depends on how much rain there is. Oh, and lest I forget, it can turn around just as fast and everything could freeze back up in a few days
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Post by hilbert on Feb 7, 2009 1:48:59 GMT
Much of Lake Superior is frozen, but the temperatures are supposed to warm up this week.
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Post by hilbert on Feb 7, 2009 1:51:43 GMT
Hmmm...I tried to insert an image, but I haven't figured out how to do that, apparently. How does one do that? Thanks.
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Post by hilbert on Feb 7, 2009 1:52:24 GMT
Never mind. It likes gifs but not pdfs.
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 7, 2009 19:54:25 GMT
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