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Post by icefisher on Feb 9, 2009 1:10:49 GMT
Have a hard time looking at a squiggly line? Quite frequently the anomaly spikes to or near its highest point around january...then usually drops off several tenths of a degree around the middle of the year.If it "usually" does what you say why did you only show the temperature record back to 2000. What you actually mean is this has happened a couple of times recently and we're desperately hoping it happens again this year else the global cooling campaign is shot to pieces. Poppycock! You aren't influenced by a couple of years of cooling so why should the cooling folks be influenced by a year of warming? Using your own metrics that is.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 9, 2009 1:31:54 GMT
Magellan I asked for data to support certain statements and the answer is clearly "No". Your first graph shows a temperature spike in the stratosphere above the arctic. There is, however, nothing in the AMSU satellite record which shows that the stratosphere as a whole has been warmer than normal in January (but I'll check again). On the contrary, it appears to be somewhat cooler than recent years. The troposphere, on the other hand, is considerably warmer. The 2nd graph is simply a plot of SSTs - and it's quite apparent that even during the recent La Nina, SSTs were still above what they were for most of the 1980s and 1990s. Sticking in a trend line from 2001 is just desperate cherry picking. Why 2001? Why not 1999 or 2000 - the last time there was a significant La Nina. However, if you look at the line for the 79-07 max, the current spike is within that range. Just guessing the big spikes in the range of years has occurred in February. Normal we have the widest spread freezing in February at least since the last PDO switch. The time series doesn't cover the 60's when we last had bitter Januarys like this years. Further you don't see these spikes in the southern winter. Could be related to convection over land. Too bad we don't have any info from the last cold phase. Since the freezing of water casts off heat maybe its related to that. With a thin atmosphere up there it might not take much to spike it. May not yet be a fully verified cooling trend GLC but we got stuff that appears related to cool period events occurring outside of usual parameters, might just be more evidence of a cooling trend huh?
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 9, 2009 2:38:38 GMT
We have potential for mid-troposphere temperatures to be higher and also a possibly unconnected Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). The _atmosphere_ is warmer especially in the medium and higher levels
Have you got any data to support this?
At the same time the _ocean_ temperatures are slowly dropping.
and this? The _atmosphere_ is warmer especially in the medium and higher levelsHave you got any data to support this? From another thread - you are happy to use the data for " strat warming was a factor in the troposphere temperature rise" in the reply below... who am I to question your omniscience? RSS is close to my prediction. I am unhappy that I had to do some guessing/hand-waving to come up with an adjustment to the raw numbers. I'll try to refine it in future. I should not have to make those adjustments. Your UAH prediction is correct as well. The surface anomalies will be interesting . If the sudden strat warming was a factor in the troposphere temperature rise, this should not be as influential in the surface data. I'm just wondering , therefore, if there might be a slight 'disconnect' between surface and satellite readings. and in another So GLC and Socold - if this year continues the cooling trend - what will your positions on AGW be? What cooling trend? So you agree that the atmosphere is warming and not cooling ? At the same time the _ocean_ temperatures are slowly dropping. and this?I know you won't want to trust Nasa Langely Research Center... but here is a presentation from them: "Ocean heat content anomaly cooling in 2004 and 2005 exceeds space/time sampling noise estimates for 0-750m depths by a factor of 3 (1.7 vs. sqrt(0.42 + 0.42) = 0.56 Wm-2) • Net Radiation changes in CERES (Ed3) is expected to show CERES at - 0.1 Wm-2 vs. Ocean data of -1.7 Wm-2 • GRACE data show no accelerated glacial ice mass loss in 2004/2005 relative to 2000/2003; glacial ice mass loss can’t explain the recent ocean water contraction (cooling)"science.larc.nasa.gov/ceres/STM/2006-10/0610261650Tak.pdfAs I said in the post you are querying - the oceans are cooling - there is a weak La Nina (Eastern Pacific cooling) the North Atlantic conveyor has restarted much to oceanographers' and climatologists' surprise with COLD water unexpectedly forming and dropping into the deep ocean. The atmosphere is warming (much to the delight of the AGW proponents who seem to only look at atmospheric temperatures) but this means that heat is on its way out of the system. So heat can be measured on its way out of the Earth-system and THE major heat repository - the oceans - are losing heat content. I find this worrying - especially as NASA cannot identify the reason for this loss of heat. So while you are placing your bets on the atmosphere being warmer in the last half of 2009 - just wonder where that all that heat is coming from. Something complex is happening to the world we live in - that was not forecast by the GCM - and rather than the pantomime " Yes it is - No it isn't" - it would be really useful if people worked together to see where we are likely to end up.
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Post by poitsplace on Feb 9, 2009 4:14:51 GMT
Too bad we don't have any info from the last cold phase. Since the freezing of water casts off heat maybe its related to that. With a thin atmosphere up there it might not take much to spike it. May not yet be a fully verified cooling trend GLC but we got stuff that appears related to cool period events occurring outside of usual parameters. . . .might just be more evidence of a cooling trend huh? Indeed, this is just another reason AGW alarmism is just a load of crap. All these crazy computer models are missing some of the most important data...the data for the ocean's behavior (and more detailed surface/atmospheric data) during a cooling phase. Besides, even if AGW were correct, we still shouldn't have been concerned until AFTER the warming period was over. We've got records of two more warming periods, one of which resulted in JUST AS MUCH WARMING at a time when CO2 wasn't rising significantly.
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Post by glc on Feb 9, 2009 9:30:24 GMT
From another thread - you are happy to use the data for "strat warming was a factor in the troposphere temperature rise" in the reply below... who am I to question your omniscience? No - I said "IF" strat warming was a factor ....... Re: ocean cooling I know you won't want to trust Nasa Langely Research Center... but here is a presentation from them:I was hoping for a bit more than 2 years data.... and a bit more recent than 2005. Incidentally how does your ocean losing heat -> warm troposphere hypothesis square with the fact that we have a La Nina at the moment. Also - remember how in 2007 we lost "all the 20th century warming" in one year - well we now appear to have found it again (see: discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/). And finally, I did make a comment on another blog which suggested that David Archibald had a separate agenda and we now know what it is. He's just about to release a new book (Solar Cycle 24). But I'm sure all the publicity he's generated with his ridiculous predictions had nothing to do with it.
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Post by glc on Feb 9, 2009 9:45:22 GMT
Poppycock! You aren't influenced by a couple of years of cooling so why should the cooling folks be influenced by a year of warming? Using your own metrics that is.
This not about warming or cooling. It's about a supposed pattern in the Jan-May anomaly difference. This 'pattern' only appears to show up in ~20% of the years since 1979 - and it looks as though there may be a link to El Nino years. David Archibald (did you know he's got a book out, btw) first noted the existence of the Jan-May pattern and suggested that there was an anomaly difference of ~0.3 deg (May lower than Jan). I can only find a handful of years where the drop has been anything like on this scale - though I accept there is usually a small drop.
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Post by glc on Feb 9, 2009 10:01:47 GMT
Icefisher - I'm just reading your post here ......
However, if you look at the line for the 79-07 max, the current spike is within that range.
Just guessing the big spikes in the range of years has occurred in February. Normal we have the widest spread freezing in February at least since the last PDO switch. The time series doesn't cover the 60's when we last had bitter Januarys like this years. Further you don't see these spikes in the southern winter. Could be related to convection over land.
Too bad we don't have any info from the last cold phase. Since the freezing of water casts off heat maybe its related to that. With a thin atmosphere up there it might not take much to spike it.
May not yet be a fully verified cooling trend GLC but we got stuff that appears related to cool period events occurring outside of usual parameters, might just be more evidence of a cooling trend huh?
You've certainly got one thing right, i.e. there is no cooling trend. The rest of your post appears to suggest something is happening which might be related to a cooling event and that this could be demonstrated if only we had data going back over previous cold (or colder) periods. This is somewhat contradicted by your first statement, though, where you say the current [SSW] spike is within the 1979-2007 range.
I said you got one thing right but you actually got something else right when you said "Just guessing" though, in common with a number of other posters that should probably read "Desperately hoping".
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Post by byz on Feb 9, 2009 10:26:01 GMT
Poppycock! You aren't influenced by a couple of years of cooling so why should the cooling folks be influenced by a year of warming? Using your own metrics that is. This not about warming or cooling. It's about a supposed pattern in the Jan-May anomaly difference. This 'pattern' only appears to show up in ~20% of the years since 1979 - and it looks as though there may be a link to E Nino years. David Archibald (did you know he's got a book out, btw) first noted the existence of the Jan-May pattern and suggested that there was an anomaly difference of ~0.3 deg (May lower than Jan). I can only find a handful of years where the drop has been anything like on this scale - though I accept there is usually a small drop. Mmm... You need to be careful here, both the weather and climate are chaotic thus non-linear, therefore patterns are misleading. In linear systems you can use patterns to project forward, also non-linear systems can sometime appear linear and long term patterns can emerge (the red spot of Jupiter), however in a non-linear system the pattern can break down very quickly as the state of the system jumps to a new state. Additionally it doesn't matter how good your model is if the data is not 100% accurate to the chaotic system you are modeling then the model and the system will rapidly diverge (hence why weather cannot be predicted reliably more than a week in advance) due to a butterfly flapping it's wings. So just because you have a pattern of warming or cooling for a period of time it doesn't mean that this will continue (and example of this is the climate before 10,000 bc which was all over the place). But as the Medieval warm period and the little Ice age demonstrate the transition can be very rapid (Ice cores show that climate can swing rapidly within a couple of years). As the global finance situation has shown chaotic systems cannot be relied upon, do you remember all the "masters of the Universe" saying in June 2007 that growth was just going to continue as we had entered a "New Era in Global finance", two months later the wheels fell off (I'm sure their financial models said that it would continue). Also remember all the people who pronounced that "House prices always go up". Climate is chaotic, finance is chaotic (read Mandelbrot's book if you don't believe me), what has happened to finance can happen in climate and the models would be left blowing in the wind, just because the sun shines today and for the last week, it doesn't mean it won't rain tomorrow! You should see my share portfolio
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Post by glc on Feb 10, 2009 12:22:01 GMT
Mmm...
You need to be careful here, both the weather and climate are chaotic thus non-linear, therefore patterns are misleading.
a) I agree b) I'm not sure there is a pattern anyway.
Also remember all the people who pronounced that "House prices always go up".
I don't know who said this but I certainly never thought it. Whatever else the affordability of houses is intrinsically linked to salaries and interest rates, it was obvious the balance of these factors was getting out of kilter - and I'm not being wise after the event. Around 2 years ago I refused to lend my son the money for a deposit because I could see a crash on the horizon.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 10, 2009 15:09:07 GMT
Poppycock! You aren't influenced by a couple of years of cooling so why should the cooling folks be influenced by a year of warming? Using your own metrics that is. This not about warming or cooling. It's about a supposed pattern in the Jan-May anomaly difference. This 'pattern' only appears to show up in ~20% of the years since 1979 - and it looks as though there may be a link to El Nino years. David Archibald (did you know he's got a book out, btw) first noted the existence of the Jan-May pattern and suggested that there was an anomaly difference of ~0.3 deg (May lower than Jan). I can only find a handful of years where the drop has been anything like on this scale - though I accept there is usually a small drop. If its not about warming or cooling then why did you say "What you actually mean is this has happened a couple of times recently and we're desperately hoping it happens again this year else the global cooling campaign is shot to pieces." Thats pure poppycock, by your own measure. You have claimed that three years of cooling does not make a trend and by that measure one year of warming does not shoot anything to pieces. A simplistic look at the accelerated warming trend 1978 to 1998; the pattern was, using a heating(cooling) annual format. 3(1)1(2)3(1)1(2)3(1)2 By that measure if what comes to pass that two years are warmer (much more than your 5 months) you are still in the natural range of even an accelerated trend. Hitting a top 5 is even normal. The pattern above twice repeats in 7 year periods, 4 years of warming and 3 cooler years. You need to remain consistent.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 10, 2009 15:20:24 GMT
Icefisher - I'm just reading your post here ...... However, if you look at the line for the 79-07 max, the current spike is within that range.
Just guessing the big spikes in the range of years has occurred in February. Normal we have the widest spread freezing in February at least since the last PDO switch. The time series doesn't cover the 60's when we last had bitter Januarys like this years. Further you don't see these spikes in the southern winter. Could be related to convection over land.
Too bad we don't have any info from the last cold phase. Since the freezing of water casts off heat maybe its related to that. With a thin atmosphere up there it might not take much to spike it.
May not yet be a fully verified cooling trend GLC but we got stuff that appears related to cool period events occurring outside of usual parameters, might just be more evidence of a cooling trend huh?You've certainly got one thing right, i.e. there is no cooling trend. The rest of your post appears to suggest something is happening which might be related to a cooling event and that this could be demonstrated if only we had data going back over previous cold (or colder) periods. This is somewhat contradicted by your first statement, though, where you say the current [SSW] spike is within the 1979-2007 range. I said you got one thing right but you actually got something else right when you said "Just guessing" though, in common with a number of other posters that should probably read "Desperately hoping". No where did I say there was no cooling trend. You are imagining things. Nothing new there but one has to question why you get peaks in the middle of the northern winter and at no other times. Seems stratopheric peaking is strongly associated with cold weather on the ground. Perhaps you are seeing something else but unless you explain it better it appears you are halluncinating.
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Post by icefisher on Feb 10, 2009 15:32:47 GMT
I don't know who said this but I certainly never thought it. Whatever else the affordability of houses is intrinsically linked to salaries and interest rates, it was obvious the balance of these factors was getting out of kilter - and I'm not being wise after the event. Around 2 years ago I refused to lend my son the money for a deposit because I could see a crash on the horizon. The real test of your vision is if you are lending him the money now.
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Post by glc on Feb 10, 2009 15:59:35 GMT
Seems stratopheric peaking is strongly associated with cold weather on the ground. Perhaps you are seeing something else but unless you explain it better it appears you are halluncinating.
Have we got cold weather on the ground? The UK and Europe have been a bit parky but the NH, as a whole has been above average. UAH anomaly for the NH is +0.44. China , India and Russia have been much warmer than average throughout January. Canada's also been pretty warm recently and even the USA has lost it's cold weather.
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 10, 2009 17:40:26 GMT
From another thread - you are happy to use the data for "strat warming was a factor in the troposphere temperature rise" in the reply below... who am I to question your omniscience? No - I said "IF" strat warming was a factor ....... Re: ocean cooling I know you won't want to trust Nasa Langely Research Center... but here is a presentation from them:I was hoping for a bit more than 2 years data.... and a bit more recent than 2005. Incidentally how does your ocean losing heat -> warm troposphere hypothesis square with the fact that we have a La Nina at the moment. Also - remember how in 2007 we lost "all the 20th century warming" in one year - well we now appear to have found it again (see: discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/). And finally, I did make a comment on another blog which suggested that David Archibald had a separate agenda and we now know what it is. He's just about to release a new book (Solar Cycle 24). But I'm sure all the publicity he's generated with his ridiculous predictions had nothing to do with it. "Incidentally how does your ocean losing heat -> warm troposphere hypothesis square with the fact that we have a La Nina at the moment. "La Nina is a cool East Pacific - so I would say it fits quite well; dependent of course on the amount of warm water in the West Pacific but from the SST charts things look cooler. " Also - remember how in 2007 we lost "all the 20th century warming" in one year - well we now appear to have found it again (see: discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/)."
The atmospheric heat changes are trivial compared to the heat content of the oceans. As I said what you are witnessing in the atmosphere is heat departing into space. So hot atmosphere and cooling oceans is a recipe for a cold Earth.
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Post by magellan on Feb 10, 2009 20:11:55 GMT
From another thread - you are happy to use the data for "strat warming was a factor in the troposphere temperature rise" in the reply below... who am I to question your omniscience? No - I said "IF" strat warming was a factor ....... Re: ocean cooling I know you won't want to trust Nasa Langely Research Center... but here is a presentation from them:I was hoping for a bit more than 2 years data.... and a bit more recent than 2005. Incidentally how does your ocean losing heat -> warm troposphere hypothesis square with the fact that we have a La Nina at the moment. Also - remember how in 2007 we lost "all the 20th century warming" in one year - well we now appear to have found it again (see: discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/). And finally, I did make a comment on another blog which suggested that David Archibald had a separate agenda and we now know what it is. He's just about to release a new book (Solar Cycle 24). But I'm sure all the publicity he's generated with his ridiculous predictions had nothing to do with it. "Incidentally how does your ocean losing heat -> warm troposphere hypothesis square with the fact that we have a La Nina at the moment. "La Nina is a cool East Pacific - so I would say it fits quite well; dependent of course on the amount of warm water in the West Pacific but from the SST charts things look cooler. " Also - remember how in 2007 we lost "all the 20th century warming" in one year - well we now appear to have found it again (see: discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/)."
The atmospheric heat changes are trivial compared to the heat content of the oceans. As I said what you are witnessing in the atmosphere is heat departing into space. So hot atmosphere and cooling oceans is a recipe for a cold Earth. You took the words from my mouth. The first few meters of ocean contain more heat than the entire atmosphere, and they are losing it. As mentioned ad nauseum, ocean currents bring heat to the surface in waves, release it and the cycle continues, all the while the average result is falling SST. Look at the Dec SST compared to Jan., and soon we shall see what NH SST brings us The oceans are belching, but are not replenishing. By now it should be obvious what is going on. GLC fails to understand the significance of the recent SSW event. Weather models don't know what to do with it. A similar but less magnified event took place in 1939 which led to the harsh winters of 1940-1942. People get all giddy and others worried GW is back on track. It is not. In point of fact is this blurb by RPS: Current Ocean Temperature Distribution Points To La Niña Conditions climatesci.org/2009/02/10/current-ocean-temperature-distribution-points-to-la-nina-conditions/Thanks to Russ Young who has alerted us to the latest plot of equatorial upper level ocean temperatures for February 9 2009 which shows that we are clearly in a La Niña climate pattern. In addition, it would behoove some to read another recent entry by RPS addressing the issue of OHC as I have posted on multiple occasions regarding Hansen's "smoking gun" (heavily weighted by IPCC AR4 conclusions) article from 2005. climatesci.org/2009/02/09/update-on-a-comparison-of-upper-ocean-heat-content-changes-with-the-giss-model-predictions/The problem with AGW promoters, and I consider GLC to fit in that category due to his incessant agreement with its radiative forcing hypothesis as being central to what determines Earth's surface temperatures, is the by-orders-of-magnitude larger effect oceans have on climate over the atmosphere. Something regulates ocean heat content. What is it? CO2? No ocean warming, no "global" warming.
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