dc51
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 97
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Post by dc51 on Feb 13, 2009 23:01:52 GMT
After the last two lousy summers I read something about sunspots.
So I got on this machine and was glad to learn that maybe were not going to cause the end of the world!
The thing is, I'd like a decent summer this year, so what's the chances?
What were the summers like during the maunder and dalton mins?
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 14, 2009 3:58:28 GMT
After the last two lousy summers I read something about sunspots. So I got on this machine and was glad to learn that maybe were not going to cause the end of the world! The thing is, I'd like a decent summer this year, so what's the chances? What were the summers like during the maunder and dalton mins? What summers? |
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Post by tallbloke on Feb 14, 2009 9:56:44 GMT
Your wild assed guess is as good as ours. For any particular locale, local factors can make the temperatures vary greatly, as well as cloud cover, precipitation etc.
The best we can do is take into account past patterns, adjust for present trends, and make a guess. My guess is that in the northern UK, the coming summer will follow a late spring, will be drier than the last two, with less cloud cover and some good sunshine hours figures. It will generally be cool at night though, so campers will need a good sleeping bag.
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dc51
Level 2 Rank
Posts: 97
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Post by dc51 on Feb 14, 2009 10:44:27 GMT
[/quote] What were the summers like during the maunder and dalton mins?What summers?[/quote] WHAAAAA!!! how far south do I have to go??  Seriously guys, it can't be all bad, can it? The worst winter of the little ice age was 1708/09 but the summer of 07 was a massive heatwave! there must have been other fine summers during that period. |
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Post by kiwistonewall on Feb 14, 2009 11:08:36 GMT
Of course not. Year round skiiing is a big advantage. ;D
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 14, 2009 12:16:31 GMT
After the last two lousy summers I read something about sunspots. So I got on this machine and was glad to learn that maybe were not going to cause the end of the world! The thing is, I'd like a decent summer this year, so what's the chances? What were the summers like during the maunder and dalton mins? Serious answer after going over some papers.... "Most of the authors dealing with LMM, e.g. in Frenzel (1994), report cold winters in that period. The winter of 1685 was the most severe in Europe with an anomaly from - 4.5 to -5 K (Lindgren and Neumann 1981) . In general, winter cooling was pronounced in western and central Europe. In northwest Europe, small anomalies prevailed, but the south -eastern regions experienced strong cooling: no mild or normal winters were recorded. In all other regions strong winters were much more frequent than usual. The springs in that time period were the coldest of the last 500 years in north -western, central and eastern Europe.
The summers were characterized by mostly cool summers: Mean summer temperatures of the Northern Hemisphere from 1691 -1700 were with -0.7 K anomaly (relative to 1961 -90) the lowest of the last millennium (Jones et al., 1998)coast.gkss.de/staff/storch/pdf/lmm.kihz.summary.pdfand (the full paper is worth a read ) The reconstructed global-scale temperature patterns over the last 600 years by Mann*** et al. (1998) showed pronounced cold periods during the mid and late seventeenth century. The reconstructed annual mean Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures were 0.2–0.4°C lower compared with the reference period of 1902–1980. It is interesting to note that, from 1610 to 1800, the correlation of reconstructed solar irradiance and NH temperature is 0.86, implying a predominant solar influence in this pre-industrial period (Lean and Rind, 1998). Concerning Europe, the surface temperatures were at times reduced in the order of 0.7°C compared with twentieth century conditions, especially in the northern part of the continent (Bradley and Jones, 1993; Damon and Jirikowic, 1994).<snip> The summers, generally, were much wetter and cooler in Western, Central and Eastern Europe (Wanner et al., 1995; Pfister, 1999; Luterbacher et al., 2000). According to Kington (1999), warming began in 1699, first over the British Isles, then reaching western Central Europe in 1704 and finally eastern Central Europe at the end of the LMM (Pfister, 1999).( *** Presumably before he started saying the opposite? ) www.ub.edu/gc/Documentos/Luterbacher,%20IJC,%202000.pdf |
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Post by Ratty on Feb 14, 2009 12:24:47 GMT
Of course not. Year round skiiing is a big advantage. ;D Bloody Kiwis!  |
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