|
Post by s4caster on Feb 14, 2009 10:05:26 GMT
A well-respected atmospheric scientist, Roger Pielke, Jr, has opined, with predictable comments following: sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/the-collapse-of-climate-policy-and-the-sustainability-of-climate-science-4939Will it be sooner, rather than later, that the whole AGW quilt unravels? I thought, like Pielke, Jr, that it would be sooner, too, but with all that's invested on the AGW side, I could see a lingering death over the next decade or two.
|
|
|
Post by tallbloke on Feb 14, 2009 10:49:26 GMT
The UK MET office is repositionaing itself for a 'natural cooling now - more AGW later' scenario. How much time this can buy them is an intersting question which depends on how temperatures go, and how well coolheads can demolish the internal logic of the AGW position.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Feb 14, 2009 12:21:45 GMT
The UK MET office is repositionaing itself for a 'natural cooling now - more AGW later' scenario. How much time this can buy them is an intersting question which depends on how temperatures go, and how well coolheads can demolish the internal logic of the AGW position. " how well coolheads can demolish the internal logic of the AGW position" Interesting word usage - perhaps instead of talking of 'warmers' and 'deniers' we should be talking of ' hotheads' and ' coolheads' - shall we start a trend?
|
|
|
Post by william on Feb 14, 2009 15:47:55 GMT
The collapse of the AWG and the belief a warmer planet that has higher levels or CO2 is harmful to the biosphere is dependent on the magnitude and the rapidity of the drop in planetary temperature. The "tripping point" in scientific and public opinion is when there is widespread news reports and personal experience of extreme cold events. I would expect the scientific community and the informed amateurs will lead the process. In the words of Groucho “Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?” (To his wife when she finds him in bed with another woman. Deny, deny, ...) www.ub.edu/gc/Documentos/Luterbacher,%20IJC,%202000.pdf "Within the MM, the Late Maunder Minimum (LMM; 1675–1715) is of particular interest from a climatological point of view in many parts of Europe, since a large amount and a broad spectrum of high resolution multi-proxy data (monthly, seasonal) and instrumental data are available (Wanner et al., 1995; Luterbacher and Pfister, 1999; Luterbacher et al., 1999; Pfister, 1999). It was one of the few very cold periods in the last centuries that persisted over decades. In particular, European winters and springs were more severe then than during the twentieth century. It is an interesting feature that the cooling of winters began in the mid-1670s over Western Europe and the British Isles (Pfister, 1994, 1999). Five years later it spread to Central Europe and finally reached Eastern Europe around 1684." Curiously, there is a larger more productive biosphere for a warmer planet with more CO2. There is also more precipitation. I am curious when the environmental epiphany will occur. May you live in interesting times.
|
|
|
Post by tallbloke on Feb 14, 2009 16:30:24 GMT
The UK MET office is repositionaing itself for a 'natural cooling now - more AGW later' scenario. How much time this can buy them is an intersting question which depends on how temperatures go, and how well coolheads can demolish the internal logic of the AGW position. " how well coolheads can demolish the internal logic of the AGW position" Interesting word usage - perhaps instead of talking of 'warmers' and 'deniers' we should be talking of ' hotheads' and ' coolheads' - shall we start a trend? Sounds about right.
|
|
|
Post by magellan on Feb 14, 2009 17:58:14 GMT
RP Jr. is not an atmospheric scientist, that would be his father RP Sr.
|
|
|
Post by socold on Feb 14, 2009 18:20:25 GMT
I don't believe there ever was a political consensus, just a load of hot air.
|
|
|
Post by s4caster on Feb 15, 2009 3:47:56 GMT
Magellan - Oops, you're right, it was his NCAR affiliation that threw me off...sorry about that. Thanks for the correction. Here's the straight story from RP Jr's home page:
Occasionally Asked Questions About Roger Pielke, Jr. Q: Who are you? I am currently a professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado. At CU, I am also a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and was director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research from 2001-2007. Before coming to CU in 2001, I spent 8 years as a staff scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in their Environmental and Societal Impacts Group (now called ISSE). I have a B.A. in mathematics, an M.A. in public policy and a Ph.D. in political science, all from the University of Colorado. In 2007 I was on sabbatical at the James Martin Institute for Science and Civilization, Oxford University.
|
|