|
Post by jorgekafkazar on Feb 22, 2009 17:57:57 GMT
An interesting thread, worth pursuing, but we may come up with a 'dry hole,' as they say in the petroleum business. Good post, by the way, socold.
Still, it's a worthwhile exercise and we all might learn something. First, let's learn to be clear in all our statements:
Poitsplace said: "...AGW proponents latch on to the fact that SURELY the UV can't have much of an affect because much of the higher UV is relatively weak. BUT...if you'll notice the variability ramps up at the same rate (and still logarithmically as it slacks back off)..."
All mostly true, but it took me a while to figure out what you meant by the variability ramping up, since it's clearly ramping down, going from left to right in the conventional way of speaking. Let's all make an effort to be explicit.
"...and so it COMPLETELY offsets the other curve."
Well, the graph gives that impression, but the offset is less than it appears. Read the axis definitions very carefully. Notice the definition of the variability as shown on the right hand ordinate (axis). Somewhere else on this board, I did some calcs to show how much affect the variability has on energy as defined on the left axis. The result:
wv.lgth, microns energy, min./max. 110 76.9% 150 90.9% 200 94.3% 250 97.1% 300 99.9%
That isn't much change at all, especially given that the energy (left ordinate, or y-axis) is pretty small for the shorter wavelengths (the left end of the x-axis). Check my calcs, though, if you're unsure. I've assumed that the graph shows maximum flux (it doesn't say, does it?), but maybe you'd like to check what the effect is if it's average flux, instead.
Since I've operated photometers and pyrometers in the lab, my curiosity focuses on what the actual satellite hardware is: the sensor type and specifications (wavelength sensitivities), what the optics include (filters? shutters? quartz windows? Ray-ban sunglasses? I'm not sure), what optical and sensor changes might occur during the mission, and what corrections were made to the output to accommodate the initial and later variations in total sensitivity due to the detector and optical properties, including "drift."
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Feb 23, 2009 9:02:19 GMT
Here is another chart of the Electromagnetic Spectrum. I think it is useful in that it shows the names of wavelength ranges above a scale in nanometers (making it simpler to consolidate various units used in the literature). Solar irradiance spectral categories from gamma-rays through radio wavelengths.[Has been modified only for size, to sharpen the image and to change pixels/inch from 200 to 96.] Source (note that this document is a draft for comment created in 2005): Space Environment Technologies. “ISO 21348 Definitions of Solar Irradiance Spectral Categories.” Space Environment Technologies, January 29, 2005. www.spacewx.com/pdf/SET_21348_2004.pdf.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Feb 23, 2009 9:22:06 GMT
Since I've operated photometers and pyrometers in the lab, my curiosity focuses on what the actual satellite hardware is: the sensor type and specifications (wavelength sensitivities), what the optics include (filters? shutters? quartz windows? Ray-ban sunglasses? I'm not sure), what optical and sensor changes might occur during the mission, and what corrections were made to the output to accommodate the initial and later variations in total sensitivity due to the detector and optical properties, including "drift." Here is a reference to the SORCE instruments (the only satellite I found that has a page answering your question). SORCE: Instrument Overviews ( and subordinate links) lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/instruments/instr_overview.htm"The primary goal for the SORCE mission is to accurately measure the solar spectral irradiance at ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared wavelengths. The mission consists of four separate optical channels: three spectrometers and one photometer. " SIM: In this focal plane, four photodiode detectors and an electrical substitution radiometer (ESR) SOLSTICE: two-channel grating spectrometer TIM: ambient temperature active cavity radiometer, using Electrical Substitution Radiometers (ESRs). XPS: 12 XUV Photometers
|
|
|
Post by ron on Feb 23, 2009 17:09:08 GMT
The first time the President flies in Airforce One after the day they make that finding I will file a lawsuit seeking damages. I wonder if they will regulate the baker in my town? Doesn't yeast give off CO2? Never mind all of that wasted energy heating up the oven. Raw veggies only! Vegans win!
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on Feb 23, 2009 18:48:27 GMT
I wonder if they will regulate the baker in my town? Doesn't yeast give off CO2? Never mind all of that wasted energy heating up the oven. Raw veggies only! Vegans win! Perhaps not. If the baker is a socialist, he will be granted carbon credits. However, he will be required by some czar to give away the bread. The administration will provide the circus. | This is part of the logo of the Socialist International. (The other part represents the world.) Nice rose. Note the fist. Carol Browner for czar! |
Vegans may not win. They exhale CO 2. The czar may require that they stop that. The Club Of Rome wins.
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Feb 23, 2009 19:02:47 GMT
The first time the President flies in Airforce One after the day they make that finding I will file a lawsuit seeking damages. I wonder if they will regulate the baker in my town? Doesn't yeast give off CO2? Never mind all of that wasted energy heating up the oven. Raw veggies only! Vegans win! Don't hold your breath.... or perhaps everyone should be holding their breath?
|
|
|
Post by ron on Feb 23, 2009 20:44:53 GMT
Required Valium twice per day to lower our metabolisms to decrease food intake and CO2 exhalation.
We can do it!
|
|
|
Post by jorgekafkazar on Feb 24, 2009 6:07:33 GMT
Since I've operated photometers and pyrometers in the lab, my curiosity focuses on what the actual satellite hardware is: the sensor type and specifications (wavelength sensitivities), what the optics include (filters? shutters? quartz windows? Ray-ban sunglasses? I'm not sure), what optical and sensor changes might occur during the mission, and what corrections were made to the output to accommodate the initial and later variations in total sensitivity due to the detector and optical properties, including "drift." Here is a reference to the SORCE instruments (the only satellite I found that has a page answering your question). SORCE: Instrument Overviews ( and subordinate links) lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/instruments/instr_overview.htmA lot (!) of information, Bill, but insufficient detail to really know whether there are error or drift issues. I'll go over the information and see if I can come up with a list of questions. The only item I see so far is the possibility of degassing of components with subsequent deposition on the optics. I can't even identify the optical inlet type for certain, though it seems to be a slit open to space. I can see a closeable window internal to the instrument. There seems to be a reasonable amount of redundancy, along with on-board calibration. I'm wondering if any of these instruments have been recovered and recalibrated. Thanks for the link.
|
|
|
Post by socold on Feb 25, 2009 2:36:34 GMT
hmm perhaps total solar energy has declined in the last 30 years
|
|
|
Post by nautonnier on Feb 26, 2009 13:56:59 GMT
hmm perhaps total solar energy has declined in the last 30 years Yes it rose for 20 years then dropped but doubtless you will tell us that the overall trend is still up.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 18:58:56 GMT
ResumedThe broad objective of this topic was to examine the assertion that variation in Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is too low to significantly influence climate change (specifically, global warming). This assertion had been back-cast using sunspot observations, tree ring records, ice cores, and cosmogenic isotopes. However, this result for TSI is extended by the political class (IPCC, Gore, Waxman, et al) to infer or assert that the Sun has NO effect on climate change other than that of Total Solar Irradiance. Based on this claim, most observed warming is attributed to CO 2 and its feedbacks. Definition: "The Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) is the full-disk (whole Sun) solar irradiance at 1 ua (AU) integrated across all wavelengths and is reported in units of W m-2 (clauses 2.1, 2.2, and 7.2). The solar constant, described in clause 2.3, is the mean value of the TSI." (ANSI. “Space environment (natural and artificial) — Process for determining solar irradiances.” ISO, December 12, 2005.(Draft), section 6.2 Total Solar Irradiance www.spacewx.com/pdf/ISO_DIS_21348_E_revB.pdfInvestigated here: - What wavelengths are observed?
- How are these measured?
- For what period of time have they been measured?
- What is the uncertainty of the observations?
- What wavelengths are not included in TSI?
Deferred for now: - What is the power delivered by observed wavelengths?
- What is the power delivered by the excluded wavelengths?
- For what period of time has TSI been estimated through proxies?
- What wavelengths can be estimated using proxies?
- What is the uncertainty of the proxy estimates?
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:03:59 GMT
IndexResumed: | Reply # 25 | What Was Done: Identification, Compilation and Cataloging Satellite Instruments: | Reply # 27 | Forcings and Feedbacks Not Addressed: | Reply # 28 | Considerations: | Reply # 29 | Findings: | Reply # 30 | Conclusions: | Reply # 31 | Citations and Sources Reference: | Follow | SORCE: | Reply # 32 | ACRIM: | Reply # 33 | GOES: | Reply # 34 | GOES-O Solar X-Ray Imager: | Reply # 34 | GOES-O Space Environment Monitor: | Reply # 34 | Gonzalez: | Reply # 35 | Kopp: | Reply # 36 | Landscheidt: | Reply # 37 | Lean, et al: | Reply # 38 | Scafetta, et al: | Reply # 39 | Space Environment Technologies: | Reply # 40 | Thuiller, et al: | Reply # 40 | Instrument Data Tables: | Follow | Table 1 of 3: | Reply # 41 | Table 2 of 3: | Reply # 42 | Table 3 of 3: | Reply # 43 |
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:06:54 GMT
What Was Done: Identify, Compile and Catalog Satellite Instruments The purpose was to identify the low and high wavelengths observed across all instruments, (a very tedious exercise). - Listed names associated with TSI measurements (and tried to figure out whether the names were organizations, satellites, instruments aboard satellites, or versions of instruments aboard different satellites).
- Searched Google for instruments that had identified wavelengths for these names. Received welcome assistance from lsvalgaard identifying SORCE as a place to look, which (in addition) led me to Kopp (Reply #36).
- Compiled results in a spreadsheet of satellite/instrument, notes, each range (from, to) of wavelengths, wavelength units, and link to source. Converted wavelength units to nanometers.
- Added Notes about number of channels, bands, filters, resolution and accuracy as available.
- Sorted the entries by the low (from) wavelength.
- Added formulas to generate the ProBoards tables in Reply #41, Reply #42 and Reply #43.
- Realized I should have done this catalog in MS Access rather than Excel.
There are some inconsistencies, which may be from my consolidation, interpretation or wavelength conversion errors. Others may be different wavelengths according to different sources. A satellite/Instrument combination may be repeated if it observes multiple wavelengths.
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:09:10 GMT
Forcings and Feedbacks Not AddressedThis inquiry about TSI and its variability excludes other candidate drivers of warming temperatures, such as: - The effect of CO2,
- Clouds, precipitation, and the sign of their feedbacks,
- Heat sinks and sources: Oceans and ice sheets, including multi-decadal oscillations,
- Volcanism,
- Solar variability driven by the position of major planets (Vuckovic),
- Solar – Earth energy transfer by magnetic fields or particles including electrons,
- The energy in the solar flux transferred to the near-Earth environment by magnetic reconnection and directly into the atmosphere by charged particles.
- Reduced Solar Wind shielding from Galactic Cosmic Rays and consequent cloud shading,
- The position of the Solar System within the Galaxy (Shaviv, Nir. "Cosmic Ray Diffusion from the Galactic Spiral Arms, Iron Meteorites, and a Possible Climatic Connection.” Physical Review Letters, 2007)
|
|
|
Post by Pooh on May 5, 2009 19:12:43 GMT
Considerations- The climate system has built-in lags in temperature responses to forcings: (PDO and ADO, vulcanism, ice sheets and ocean levels, etc.). Matching activity to response must be a challenge.
- Forcings by CO2 are modified by feedback parameters to create scenarios. Parameters are set by consensus of modelers. None of the scenarios have yet been confirmed by observations.
- Instrumentation:
- Active cavity radiometers are widely used (e.g., ACRIM, SORCE). If radiometers are semi-transparent at those energies, this might make measuring hard X-rays and Gamma rays difficult.
- Filters, channels and bands are used at shorter wavelengths; observations are discontinuous in wavelength, and periodic in time. Estimates of accuracy are fairly broad in shorter wavelengths.
- Coverage:
- Absorption by atmosphere may still increase energy input to the climate system (H2O), or at least affect feedbacks (O3). Far IR is absorbed by atmospheric water vapor, but Far IR is not measured.
- If “full disk” refers just to the sun and not to its corona, it will not cover all of one source of EUV and X-Rays. However, XUV is covered by SORCE. If solar images are any indication, the corona’s depth (apparent width) varies a lot between solar minimum and maximum.
- Although the (omitted) microwave range may be variable, the spectral range is wide. I find, in my kitchen, that the microwave oven still warms the soup, even on reheat.
- TSI / SSI:
- The term Total Solar Irradiance (TSI]) now applies to the historical reconstruction (“long term record for current solar forcing sensitivities”). Solar Spectral Irradiance (SSI) is introduced as measurements by instruments (“solar activity causing irradiance changes and effects on Earth’s atmosphere”) (Kopp).
- The ability to detect long-term changes (more than one cycle) in TSI/SSI is marginal
- There are indications (including Gonzoles) that TSI / SSI is more variable than previously thought (Kopp, Lean).
- The ACRIM Gap (after a space shuttle disaster) was filled by Fröhlich and Lean (1998) using PMOD. However, Scafetta, et al found that TSI actually increased, resulting in an overstatement of the AGW effect.
- Significance: Is there enough energy in the unmeasured wavelengths to make a difference in the Earth Energy Budget? How do we know?
|
|