ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 25, 2019 12:04:59 GMT
Thanks Code, moving nicely into a much warmer base now is the Indian. Will depend ratty om the next month, lets see how it progresses, the forecasted trade wind burst is the biggest I have seen for at least 3 years, and possibly since 2011.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 25, 2019 18:55:00 GMT
earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/anim=off/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=90.04,-0.58,412 Do the southern oceans appear to be a lot (abnormally) warmer than the northern?
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ant42
Level 3 Rank
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 129
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Post by ant42 on Feb 25, 2019 22:58:23 GMT
Yes they do missouriboy, a move that usually precedes a move to a Negative Antarctic oscillation. We have been very dry here, but now that this warm Pacific is quickly decaying, the Indian and Southern oceans have warmed right up int he last few weeks.
Be interesting to see if the counter acting cold is just confined to the Equatorial Pacific, or whether we see the Southern Pacific cool as well.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 26, 2019 3:51:14 GMT
Yes they do missouriboy, a move that usually precedes a move to a Negative Antarctic oscillation. We have been very dry here, but now that this warm Pacific is quickly decaying, the Indian and Southern oceans have warmed right up int he last few weeks. Be interesting to see if the counter acting cold is just confined to the Equatorial Pacific, or whether we see the Southern Pacific cool as well. Perhaps I'm looking for straws, but it was 4 cycles ago (2 full 22-year cycles) that we saw the Great Climate Shift in the Northern hemisphere. Can't help but wonder if part of that was a current forced inter-hemisphere warm water transfer. My dull memory seems to remember speculation on some such process.
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Post by nautonnier on Mar 7, 2019 20:22:43 GMT
Someone else using Theo's methods " Javier March 7, 2019 at 11:48 am
NOAA has declared that the long-awaited El Niño, a warming of tropical Pacific Ocean waters, has officially arrived
Good, I also predicted it back in July based on solar activity. wattsupwiththat.com/2018/07/05/solar-minimum-and-enso-prediction/
wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Figure-768×263.png
ENSO is under solar control. A La Niña is now expected for mid-2020 to 2021, when solar activity starts increasing rapidly.
Leamon, R.J., McIntosh, S.W. and Marsh, D.R., 2018. Termination of Solar Cycles and Correlated Tropospheric Variability. arXiv preprint arXiv:1812.02692. arxiv.org/pdf/1812.02692.pdf "wattsupwiththat.com/2019/03/07/uah-global-temperature-report-february-2019/#comment-2649377
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Post by acidohm on May 12, 2019 9:54:44 GMT
Looking at the recent up-tick in satellite measured temps, wondering how likely this is a response to the recent "nino" (as in....un-impressive).
Considering the mixing of air-masses at the moment the idea of a global average seems a bit moot. Its unlikely anyone is experiencing 'average' more then ever!
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Post by missouriboy on May 12, 2019 14:51:14 GMT
Looking at the recent up-tick in satellite measured temps, wondering how likely this is a response to the recent "nino" (as in....un-impressive). Considering the mixing of air-masses at the moment the idea of a global average seems a bit moot. Its unlikely anyone is experiencing 'average' more then ever! Jump on over to the ENSO2019 thread and look at the Willis link. Compare to today. Unfortunately, West Europe is way off on the edge.
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Post by AstroMet on Apr 11, 2021 13:58:53 GMT
Yes I think that is becoming obvious, we are almost out of heat, watch the subsurface in the pacific, its being eroded and the cold water underneath is waiting patiently before it comes other surface. The Atlantic also is cooling rapidly again like last year, I think we are now possibly seeing another climate shift. Yes, and it is well underway just as solar cycle #25 got underway several months ago.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 11, 2021 17:08:14 GMT
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 24, 2021 23:26:02 GMT
As Naut posted back on March 7, 2019, the supposedly new article linking ENSO onsets to solar cycles is not new. There was a similar article posted on Wattsupwiththat 3 years ago. The chart below comes from that article. It ends in 2018. A continuation of this is shown on my chart showing solar cycles, ENSO and UAH lower troposphere temperature anomalies for the globe & the tropics (without the pretty blue and pink bars ). This chart only goes back to 1979, as that was the year in which the first UAH satellite estimates were made. As you can see, there is often a post-cycle-peak Nino that is followed by a Nina just before the next pre-cycle Nino-Nina combo kicks in at the start of the next cycle. In some cases, these post-cycle-peak Ninas are large, as those following solar cycles 20 and 23. These were two long cycles. The Nino-Nina combo at the start of cycle 21 (as the the 3-cycle solar maximum of 1977-2008 kicked in) was small. These became larger during cycles 22-24. We are waiting to see what happens at the start of SC25. The pre-cycle Nino was very small, but the upcoming Nina has the possibility of matching the large pre-cycle Ninas of the last 30 years. Pessimists think it may be larger. Climate just IS So it is neither pessimistic or optimistic to assume larger or smaller Nina (unless Astro has a 1000-1 on bet from a decade ago )
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 24, 2021 23:49:45 GMT
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Post by Ratty on Apr 25, 2021 22:32:21 GMT
[ Snip ] Climate just IS So it is neither pessimistic or optimistic to assume larger or smaller Nina (unless Astro has a 1000-1 on bet from a decade ago ) A famous man once said: The weather has no memory.
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Post by nonentropic on Apr 25, 2021 22:38:50 GMT
and another famous man said tomorrow will be the same as today. Not a weather forecast but more accurate.
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Post by missouriboy on Apr 26, 2021 1:22:57 GMT
and another famous man said tomorrow will be the same as today. Not a weather forecast but more accurate. That man had never been to Missouri.
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Post by Ratty on Apr 26, 2021 2:03:57 GMT
and another famous man said tomorrow will be the same as today. Not a weather forecast but more accurate. That man had never been to Missouri. ... or Melbourne. (Sorry Doug).
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