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Post by missouriboy on Feb 20, 2019 16:12:24 GMT
At least you should be in the quieter quadrant of the storm That's reassuring Naut. It's been a long time since we've had a big blow in this area. Oma doesn't appear to have the credentials to provide the blow but Wanda wasn't a blow at all, just massive rain in an already saturated catchment. The catchment isn't saturated this time but ...... the weather has no memory. Since 1974, we've always bought on high ground and the locals tell me that they have never been cut off in this area. It's a dead end but we do have some local resources should the worst happen: Do you have a recipe to go with those things? You and Blu can get together on a "globalist" survival cookbook.
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Post by blustnmtn on Feb 20, 2019 17:18:47 GMT
That's reassuring Naut. It's been a long time since we've had a big blow in this area. Oma doesn't appear to have the credentials to provide the blow but Wanda wasn't a blow at all, just massive rain in an already saturated catchment. The catchment isn't saturated this time but ...... the weather has no memory. Since 1974, we've always bought on high ground and the locals tell me that they have never been cut off in this area. It's a dead end but we do have some local resources should the worst happen: Do you have a recipe to go with those things? You and Blu can get together on a "globalist" survival cookbook. I encourage globalists to eat their own.
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 20, 2019 19:29:04 GMT
Do you have a recipe to go with those things? You and Blu can get together on a "globalist" survival cookbook. I encourage globalists to eat their own. Taste may beg to differ.
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Post by nonentropic on Feb 20, 2019 22:04:14 GMT
they have been used as a substitute for beef in the past. went largely unnoticed as did the Horse issue in the UK some years ago.
Hamburgers are very happy with whatever ground meat is chosen.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 20, 2019 22:29:14 GMT
they have been used as a substitute for beef in the past. went largely unnoticed as did the Horse issue in the UK some years ago. Hamburgers are very happy with whatever ground meat is chosen. Surprisingly (?), kangaroo is notably missing from most menus. Eating Skippy
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Post by Ratty on Feb 22, 2019 3:42:00 GMT
Cyclone Oma disappearing up it own fundamental orifice?
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Post by missouriboy on Feb 22, 2019 3:57:31 GMT
they have been used as a substitute for beef in the past. went largely unnoticed as did the Horse issue in the UK some years ago. Hamburgers are very happy with whatever ground meat is chosen. And the "special sauce" covers up the rest. Works with deer.
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Post by Ratty on Feb 23, 2019 23:36:18 GMT
This should help:
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Post by Ratty on Feb 24, 2019 6:41:16 GMT
Cat 6 on the far right:
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Post by nautonnier on Feb 24, 2019 21:26:28 GMT
Cat 6 on the far right: Yes we see these all the time in Daytona Beach. Trainee weathermen leaning into the wind and rain machine, breathlessly reporting hurricanes. It follows the 'green screen' training. Later in the season the arrival of the leaning reporters is an early leading indication of a hurricane on the way. A trailing indicator is the block booking of hotels by electricity companies. In our case this also includes the conversion of the parking lots of the Daytona circuit to a briefing and dispatch area for electric company repair teams.
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Post by sigurdur on Feb 25, 2019 18:16:39 GMT
www.wunderground.com/cat6/Wutip-Hits-160-mph-First-Category-5-Typhoon-Ever-Recorded-February?cm_ven=cat6-widgetIt is very rare to see a Category 5 storm form with such cool ocean temperatures. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a mere 26 - 27°C (79 - 81°F) during Wutip’s rapid intensification to Category 5 strength, and the ocean had a low total heat content. Using thermodynamic theory, we can compute a quantity called the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone, based on the prevailing temperatures in the atmosphere and ocean. The maximum potential intensity of Wutip on Monday morning was rated approximately as a high-end Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, according to an analysis by Dr. Kerry Emanuel (Figure 1). Given that Wutip intensified to be 10 mph stronger, this was an impressive feat. Wutip made up for its lack of favorable SSTs with some unusually favorable upper level winds: wind shear was almost non-existent, less than 5 knots, and the typhoon took advantage of two strong upper-level outflow channels, one to the north and one to the south.
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 12, 2019 14:34:14 GMT
A forecast that seems to have failed before the season starts.... "What the new El Niño forecast means for hurricane season
The long-forecast El Niño finally emerged full-fledged in February and now forecasters are giving it a 60 percent chance to persist through summer.
The Climate Prediction Center’s latest forecast, which was released Thursday, gives the global climate pattern a 50 percent chance to persist into the fall.
For Florida, the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean can mean a less active hurricane season with fewer of the powerhouse Cat 5 tropical cyclones known to build during the peak months of August through October.
While the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official tropical cyclone forecast isn’t released until May, at least two early predictions are calling for a near normal to below normal season.
WeatherBell Analytics released its preliminary forecast this week with expectations of a less than average season. It warns that “forecasting off a forecast” of what’s expected this summer can be dangerous, but in general believes there will be a “down year in the main development region.”
The main development region is where so-called Cape Verde hurricanes are born. These storms can have lengthy life spans and nasty tempers. Indeed, that is where Cat 4 Harvey, Cat 5 Irma, Cat 4 Jose and Cat 5 Maria formed in 2017.
Overall, WeatherBell’s forecast includes a rather wide spread with 10-15 named storms, 4-7 hurricanes and up to 2 major hurricanes of Cat 3 or stronger. A normal season typically has 12 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
“On the high end, if the El Niño isn’t impressive we could see activity in line with last year,” WeatherBell forecasters warned."www.newsherald.com/news/20190317/what-new-el-nixf1o-forecast-means-for-hurricane-season
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 12, 2019 14:36:16 GMT
"AccuWeather's 2019 Atlantic hurricane season forecast
After an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2018, AccuWeather forecasters are predicting 2019 to result in a near- to slightly above-normal season with 12 to 14 storms.
Of those storms, five to seven are forecast to become hurricanes and two to four are forecast to become major hurricanes.
“This year, we think that there will be a few less tropical storms and lower numbers in hurricanes, but again, the old saying is ‘it only takes one’,” AccuWeather Atlantic Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said."www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathers-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/70007852
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Post by nautonnier on Apr 12, 2019 14:39:10 GMT
This forecast appears to have taken advice from Ratty.... "2019 Hurricane Season outlook: WeatherTiger lays odds; only firm forecast is massive uncertainty
Early forecasts divide into two general camps. On one hand, some established groups like Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk are projecting slightly higher chances of a less active season.
These forecasters predict a most likely outcome of around 80% of typical total storm activity, around five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
The rationale behind these forecasts is relatively straightforward. NOAA officially declared the onset of an El Niño in mid-February, and these modestly warmer than average waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are likely to persist into the summer. ADVERTISING
El Niños are linked with storm-weakening wind shear in the Atlantic, so El Niño years tend to have quieter hurricane seasons. Current sea surface temperature anomalies closer to home are also not particularly alarming, with near normal or cooler than average waters in the Tropical Atlantic’s Main Development Region.
Taken together, these mitigating factors underpin Colorado State’s and Tropical Storm Risk’s relatively calmer forecasts."More here.... www.tallahassee.com/story/news/2019/04/11/2019-hurricane-season-outlook-weathertiger-calls-7-hurricanes-3-major-storms-tallahassee-florida/3426575002/
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Post by acidohm on Apr 12, 2019 15:28:06 GMT
Im forecasting absolutely no landfall hurricanes this year 👍👍
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